Who will be the next CDU chairman?

[Tender Branson]

I support Annegret KK, but I guess Merz wins (barely).

[Tender Branson]

These delegate polls are probably much better than general polls of the broader Union membership/electorate, because they are not eligible to vote.

And the delegate sample seems to be much different to the membership/electorate, with Merz ahead of AKK.

It seems there is a desire for a more conservative way ahead among the delegates, rather than a continuation of Merkelism with AKK. But still nothing is decided yet, because a lot of delegates have refused to be polled.

[Tender Branson]

The gender gap is pretty big.

Which brings us to the question: what is the gender makeup of the 1.001 CDU delegates ?

[Tender Branson]

The gender gap is pretty big.

Which brings us to the question: what is the gender makeup of the 1.001 CDU delegates ?

Regarding the members in total, you have 74% men and 26% women.
Thus, I assume there will be about 740 men and 260 women at the convention.

Edit: I found a source.
34% of the delegates are female. The highest share of women among the statewide delegates can be found in the Schleswig-Holstein delegation with 42.5%; The Saxon CDU only dispatches 3 women (out of 30 delegates) to Hamburg.

Interesting !

That is a fairly significant structural advantage for Merz then ...

[Tender Branson]

The gender gap is pretty big.

Which brings us to the question: what is the gender makeup of the 1.001 CDU delegates ?

Regarding the members in total, you have 74% men and 26% women.
Thus, I assume there will be about 740 men and 260 women at the convention.

Edit: I found a source.
34% of the delegates are female. The highest share of women among the statewide delegates can be found in the Schleswig-Holstein delegation with 42.5%; The Saxon CDU only dispatches 3 women (out of 30 delegates) to Hamburg.

Interesting !

That is a fairly significant structural advantage for Merz then ...

Nonetheless, regarding all of the CDU voters, AKK is still more popular than Merz. (Okay, technically speaking it's a statistical tie.)

Yes, but they are not the ones voting.

Among CDU-voters, women make up 52% (or something along the lines of the general population).

Among the voting delegates, it is only 34% women.

That's a big difference.

[Tender Branson]

Does anybody of our CDU members know what votes will be counted in the first round?

• Will invalid votes count?
• Will there be the possibility of abstention on the ballots?
• If not, will blank votes be considered as abstentions?
• Will non-votes count, so that a candidate needs the majority of all 1,001 delegates (comparable with the election of the chancellor, who needs the majority of all Bundestag members in the first and second round)?

"A majority among valid votes cast ..."

https://faz.net/aktuell/politik/merkels-erbe/so-bestimmt-die-cdu-die-nachfolge-angela-merkels-15865438.html

So, abstentions and invalid & blank votes will not be included.

[Tender Branson]

My prediction for the CDU-leadership election:

1st round

48% Merz
48% AKK
  4% Spahn

Runoff

51% Merz
49% AKK

I think there is a hidden desire among the CDU delegates to get away from Merkelism and they will barely elect Merz in the end ...

[Tender Branson]

I don't like the fact that Merkel is allowed to deliver her final speech before the vote.

She could use some remarks to influence the delegates in their voting behaviour.

Merkel should speak after the vote.

[Tender Branson]

The result was very close to my prediction, just the other way around with AKK winning by a bit.

The AKK win was a last show of loyalty to Merkel from the CDU-delegates, but the 48-49% for Merz also show how much she has done wrong over the past years ...

[Tender Branson]

Before posing the question who may become the next CDU chancellery candidate, the question who will succeed AKK as general secretary must be solved. Young Union chairman Paul Ziemiak is being discussed.

Apparently Ziemiak is 33 years old. In Germany, you lead the youth wing at 33 years old. In the Netherlands, you lead the party.

Same here.

Youth wings of parties are typically led by 16-20 year olds here ...