🇬🇪 Georgia on my mind: Parliamentary elections on 26 October

[Astatine]

A bit of drama in the parliament today: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/hundreds-georgians-protest-parliament-set-advance-foreign-agent-bill-2024-04-15/

And keep in mind, Aleko Elisashvili's Citizens Party is considered to be part of the constructive opposition that doesn't fully oppose working with GD. One of their MPs was elected Public Defender in 2023, and they were one of the first parties to negotiate the end of the parliamentary boycott back in 2020. Parts of the opposition consider him a traitor, but today he was celebrated by protesters for his action.

Today, the Judiciary Committee passed the bill, and during the hearing the committe chairman expelled all opposition MPs and turned off their microphones if they even mentioned the word "Russian Law". It is expected to go through the first of three readings tomorrow, afterwards a fourth one is required to override the President's veto. She once again took side with the protesters, just like last year (when she was on a working trip in the US).

The protests today were quite large in size, but relatively peaceful, even though police apparently threatened to disassemble the demonstrators and had tear gas and water cannons prepared. An escalation from their side might have led to even more turmoil. 14 people were reportedly detained, including the chairman of the libertarian Girchi/More Freedom Party, Zurab Japaridze.

The spirit of the protests remains quite unbroken compared to last time. As said, any escalation could quickly backfire, but thus far the crowd remains determined. Not sure yet what the electoral effect will be. The law will not help GD by any means, but it remains more than questionable as to whether the opposition can really capitalize of it in the long term, given the constant state of disarray, disorientation and fragmentation. The opposition might start to organize by May, after which the electoral code cannot be amended anymore, in case GD does any surprise changes.

Btw, one underrated aspect in this might be the perspective discreditation of CSOs and NGOs that try to oversee the electoral process. In 2003, their parallel counts were part of the reason why the massive fraud of the parliamentary elections got exposed.

[MaxQue]

A bit of drama in the parliament today: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/hundreds-georgians-protest-parliament-set-advance-foreign-agent-bill-2024-04-15/

And keep in mind, Aleko Elisashvili's Citizens Party is considered to be part of the constructive opposition that doesn't fully oppose working with GD. One of their MPs was elected Public Defender in 2023, and they were one of the first parties to negotiate the end of the parliamentary boycott back in 2020. Parts of the opposition consider him a traitor, but today he was celebrated by protesters for his action.

Today, the Judiciary Committee passed the bill, and during the hearing the committe chairman expelled all opposition MPs and turned off their microphones if they even mentioned the word "Russian Law". It is expected to go through the first of three readings tomorrow, afterwards a fourth one is required to override the President's veto. She once again took side with the protesters, just like last year (when she was on a working trip in the US).

The protests today were quite large in size, but relatively peaceful, even though police apparently threatened to disassemble the demonstrators and had tear gas and water cannons prepared. An escalation from their side might have led to even more turmoil. 14 people were reportedly detained, including the chairman of the libertarian Girchi/More Freedom Party, Zurab Japaridze.

The spirit of the protests remains quite unbroken compared to last time. As said, any escalation could quickly backfire, but thus far the crowd remains determined. Not sure yet what the electoral effect will be. The law will not help GD by any means, but it remains more than questionable as to whether the opposition can really capitalize of it in the long term, given the constant state of disarray, disorientation and fragmentation. The opposition might start to organize by May, after which the electoral code cannot be amended anymore, in case GD does any surprise changes.

Btw, one underrated aspect in this might be the perspective discreditation of CSOs and NGOs that try to oversee the electoral process. In 2003, their parallel counts were part of the reason why the massive fraud of the parliamentary elections got exposed.

How naive protesters are. The only way GD will ever give up power is through a coup

[Astatine]

The bill passed the first reading with 83 votes in favor (opposition not attending the vote).
Numerous sportsmen publicly spoke out against the bill, including UFC champion Ilia Topuria, footballers Budu Zivzivadze, Giorgi Mamardashvili and Khvicha Khvaratskhelia.

[icc]

The bill passed the first reading with 83 votes in favor (opposition not attending the vote).
Numerous sportsmen publicly spoke out against the bill, including UFC champion Ilia Topuria, footballers Budu Zivzivadze, Giorgi Mamardashvili and Khvicha Khvaratskhelia.

Add to that Davit Niniashvili, star of the Georgian rugby team.

[Logical]

And yet Georgian Nightmare will still win at least 40%.

[EastAnglianLefty]

The Russian Law is nominally designed to promote openness and transparency in government.

Apropos of nothing, the Georgian Parliament's website is currently geoblocked to outsiders - my partner had to use a VPN to access it this morning to get some information off it.

[Astatine]

And yet Georgian Nightmare will still win at least 40%.

Presumably.

Saakashvili recently proposed a united opposition list without a party formally dominating (this is what "Strength is in unity" was originally supposed to be in 2020, it's just that UNM ended up being dominating as usual), but I doubt it would help much.

Firstly, the electoral code still includes a ban on party blocs - Party members would still be able to run on other parties' lists (double memberships), like it was the case with EDP members integrated into the UNM/Strength is in unity list last time or with the Greens and GD in 2016. Some new party would have to be set up, no opposition party wants to associate itself with UNM too strongly.
Secondly, other parties have no incentive to be sucked up by UNM and limited in their electoral potential by its toxicity. 20-30% are core "Nacis", but getting above that level is extremely difficult for UNM. A strong UNM would strengthen GD once again on the other hand, and as the anti-UNM vote is still larger than the anti-GD vote, opposition loses.
Ahali and Girchi/Droa are exactly aimed at offering a less toxic alternative to UNM and its shenanigans, other parties like For Georgia (FG) or For the people (FP) are more aimed at the GD leaning vote and crack its base support of ~35%. This would obviously get lost if For Georgia or For the people ran with UNM.
And ofc nobody know if Misha is serious or if it's part of one of his weekly mood swings he'll retract later on.

Imho, a Polish scenario would probably be most effective at defeating GD, with numerous shades of opposition competing (UNM-SB, FG-maybe with FP and Citizens, Girchi-Droa, dk with whom Lelo could ally, perhaps Ahali). Not a given it would actually work out and FG could certainly be a risk factor and become Georgia's very own version of Slovak Hlas, but it'd be more likely to succeed than either the current fragmented scenario or a joint opposition list.

[Astatine]

Protests ain't stopping, despite the official organizers waiting for the next reading for full mobilization, the youth continues to go out en masse - And UNM, Lelo, Strategy Builder, Girchi-More Freedom, Droa, Ahali and the Republican Party have found common ground in opposing the bill in Parliament.

Besides, President Salome Zurabishvili also announced in an interview that she seeks to "develop a platform together with political parties" - her involvement in this could be crucial to attract the youth to vote for the opposition. Youngsters make up a significant share of the electorate in Georgia, but barely go to vote, they tend to loathe the govt. and don't really like the opposition either, but many seem to like Salome as a voice of reason, just like when she recently pardoned Lazare Grigordiades, who was sentenced to 9 years in prison for allegedly throwing a Molotov cocktail at police officers during last years' protests. On the other hand, she has announced numerous formats in the past, which never materialized.
She seems to be very vague about her political ambitions. In an interview in December, she said she'll consider "anything", including running in the elections, if Georgia's European future is on the table, in another one in January, she said she wants to serve out her term, last week she favored snap elections in case of an opposition win this year (which should aim to form a transitional govt. as a mandate for Europe and then get re-approved subsequently). Maybe she speculates on the latter? Foreign Minister seems like the perfect job for her.

It also seems like GD leadership isn't too fond of passing the Foreign Agent Law. Allegedly, in a closed meeting with Ivanishvili, GD leader and ex-PM Gharibashvili, Speaker Papuashvili and Head of State Security Liluashvili, they all warned Bidzina that retabling the bill would hurt GD's chances in October.

Speaking of Ivanishili, Parliament also passed amendments to the tax code according to which the transfer of money from tax heavens to Georgia will become untaxed. Ivanishvili happens to be involved in numerous offshore companies, and this might become a way for Russians to evade sanctions. Very transparent behavior coming from the party that backs a so-called "Transparency Law".

Missed to post a poll from before the protests. This can be pretty much junked, similarly to GORBI (Mtavari Arkhi is the channel that the leader of Ahali owned before rejoining politics). Waiting for IPM/IRI, Edison Research or maybe Ipsos, their polling results are usually closer to reality.

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1779142753307201717