🇩🇪 German state & local elections

[urutzizu]

In other news Germany is now likely in recession territory, after the Economy shrank in the second quarter. This means that all the nice spending promises of the SPD to attempt to buy back their voters, such as the minimum pension, are likely as dead as the dodo.
In reality both are irresponsible. We do actually need a stimulus, as basically all economists say, but infrastructure spending, not voter bribing. But that is not allowed in Germany.  

Wouldnt that also have an impact on the Green Party and their plans to spend trillions of euros putting a wind turbine in every backyard?

To a certain degree, yes. The greens plans to fast-track the coal phaseout and replace it all with wind/solar are very unrealistic, even if we were able to spend. If they were to enter Government, they will almost certainly have to moderate their plans significantly, unless they want large-scale power outages.    

That said, depends on how long this downturn goes on for. But as i have already argued in the economics thread, all indications are that this is not a temporary thing. If, and indications do point this way, this goes for a global downturn, mix in Brexit, increasing China-US/Western tensions, and Germany is truly screwed, because of our export-dependent economy. Climate Change will be on the back burner then, because in that case hard Austerity awaits.

The ironic part, is of course that right now interest rates and our debt are so low, that we could easily finance a stimulus, even climate infrastructure. But our constitution does not allow that. It allows us only to borrow in a large recession. And during a large recession the rates will be high. Its contrarian economics.    

[TheSaint250]

Is this a new poll?

 https://www.tagesspiegel.de/berlin/landtagswahl-in-brandenburg-die-afd-liegt-deutlich-vor-spd-gruenen-und-cdu/24903194.html

If so, the numbers are:

AfD: 21.0%
SPD: 18.2%
Grüne: 17.2%
CDU: 17.1%
Linke: 14.7%
FDP: 5.5%
Other: 6.3%

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Is this a new poll?

 https://www.tagesspiegel.de/berlin/landtagswahl-in-brandenburg-die-afd-liegt-deutlich-vor-spd-gruenen-und-cdu/24903194.html

If so, the numbers are:

AfD: 21.0%
SPD: 18.2%
Grüne: 17.2%
CDU: 17.1%
Linke: 14.7%
FDP: 5.5%
Other: 6.3%

Yes, the poll is from yesterday; but with 28 days, the survey period is very huge, which isn't quite handy two weeks before an election.

[urutzizu]

Is this a new poll?

 https://www.tagesspiegel.de/berlin/landtagswahl-in-brandenburg-die-afd-liegt-deutlich-vor-spd-gruenen-und-cdu/24903194.html

If so, the numbers are:

AfD: 21.0%
SPD: 18.2%
Grüne: 17.2%
CDU: 17.1%
Linke: 14.7%
FDP: 5.5%
Other: 6.3%

Yes, the poll is from yesterday; but with 28 days, the survey period is very huge, which isn't quite handy two weeks before an election.

Indeed, and its Civey, an online pollster with not the best reputation.

[TheSaint250]

Yes, the poll is from yesterday; but with 28 days, the survey period is very huge, which isn't quite handy two weeks before an election.

Indeed, and its Civey, an online pollster with not the best reputation.

Ah, got it. Thank you both.

What are the pundits saying about the elections in Saxony and Brandenburg (and Thuringia, though that's further off)?  Do they expect AfD to overperform, underperform, etc.?  Any more speculation over coalitions?

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Indeed, and its Civey, an online pollster with not the best reputation.

Civey is the official partner of SPON, Germany's biggest (online) news magazine. Nearly every day, they offer the possibility for their readers to participate in an online poll.
One day before the last federal election, SPON compiled a detailed list of all the last polls by each big pollster. (except for INSA, which has been being criticized by the media for not-underestimating the AfD.)
Civey, on the other hand, is only cited on that site; on wahlrecht.de - the German equivalent of uselectionatlas.org - none of those Civey polls are listed.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

What are the pundits saying about the elections in Saxony and Brandenburg (and Thuringia, though that's further off)?  Do they expect AfD to overperform, underperform, etc.?  Any more speculation over coalitions?

It's very hard to tell. The polls so volatile that they remind me of the Democratic primary. I think there will be some kind of Bradley effect in favor of the AfD.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Bremen has a new mayor: Andreas Bovenschulte, who leads the first red-red-green coalition in a West German state.
His coalition holds a 49-seat majority in the 84-member state parliament (Bürgerschaft). Bovenschulte only received 47 votes in the secret ballot..
The SPD under its former mayor Carsten Sieling didn't come out as the strongest party in the May state elections for the very first time since the foundation of the Federal Republic.

https://twitter.com/AndreasAndy3131/status/1161967491003953152

[President Johnson]

I have a feeling he will end up like Sieling. Succeed a mayor who stepped down after a disastrous election defeat, serve out the term and then get clobbered. But next time, there won't be third SPD mayor.

[urutzizu]

The Saxony Supreme Court has ruled in favour of the AfD to expand their candidate list from 18 to 30, which would be a quarter of seats in parliament.

https://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/afd-sachsen-darf-landeswahlliste-laut-verfassungsgericht-erweitern-a-1279043.html

In a final decision, instead of the preliminary one then, the Saxony supreme court has upheld its prior verdict. 30 candidates can run. So issue settled, AFD is more than safe.
 
https://www.tagesschau.de/inland/afd-sachsenwahl-101.html

[President Johnson]

Brand new polls from Saxony and Brandenburg:

https://twitter.com/tagesschau/status/1164570855474651136

https://twitter.com/tagesschau/status/1164570595994066944

[Tender Branson]

On Sunday, 2 state elections will be held in Sachsen and Brandenburg.

New ZDF polls:

https://twitter.com/ZDFheute/status/1164776525477994496

https://twitter.com/ZDFheute/status/1164785590988136448

[President Johnson]

The SPD's standing is so pathetic. Really.

[pilskonzept]

SPD quite a bit above their low water mark, AfD quite a bit below their high water mark in both states. On these numbers, we'll see RRG or possibly Kenya in Brandenburg, and Kenya in Saxony with an outside chance of Jamaica (thanks to AfD's troubles with candidate disqualification).

And two more years of GroKo.

[urutzizu]

The AFD lacks well-known or charismatic candidates, even as their message may be popular in the East. Kretschmer has a 66% Approval rating in Saxony, even AFD voters like him. No wonder: He is basically running on a platform that could have been AFD in west Germany. Anti-immigration, pro-russia, pro direct democracy, you name it. Just without the toxicity of them. All the while, who is the AFD running in Saxony again? And their Candidate in Brandenburg has only been in the News because of that banned neo-nazi group he was affiliated with  

I remember a year or so ago Nigel Farage gave a speech at a AFD rally. The other AFD speakers only got a modest reaction, but Farage, despite giving the Speech in English, got a rapturous reception from the Crowd. One of the people there said to a journalist "oh if only we had someone like Farage"
The AFD indeed needs a German Farage, Salvini or Marine LePen. Nobody really votes AFD because they are convinced by Meuthen, Höcke or Gauland. To break through that 15% Ceiling, they need somebody to make the party more than just a protest vote against immigration policy. They need somebody that can excite.

[DavidB.]

The AFD indeed needs a German Farage, Salvini or Marine LePen. Nobody really votes AFD because they are convinced by Meuthen, Höcke or Gauland. To break through that 15% Ceiling, they need somebody to make the party more than just a protest vote against immigration policy. They need somebody that can excite.

Wonder who this charismatic person is going to be compared to... the toxicity of that comparison can also hurt them. But of course I see your point and you're right.

[Ethelberth]

Bremen has a new mayor: Andreas Bovenschulte, who leads the first red-red-green coalition in a West German state.
His coalition holds a 49-seat majority in the 84-member state parliament (Bürgerschaft). Bovenschulte only received 47 votes in the secret ballot..
The SPD under its former mayor Carsten Sieling didn't come out as the strongest party in the May state elections for the very first time since the foundation of the Federal Republic.

https://twitter.com/AndreasAndy3131/status/1161967491003953152

Bovenschulte sounds very Low German.

[RGM2609]

What kind of people are still voting for SPD?

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Tbh I think the fact the AfD's support is significant even without a key leader is best for them in the long run. The fact that UKIP only really had Garage as a public face kind of capped their staying power, whilw afd has proven resilient through several leadership changes.

[palandio]

Tbh I think the fact the AfD's support is significant even without a key leader is best for them in the long run. The fact that UKIP only really had Garage as a public face kind of capped their staying power, whilw afd has proven resilient through several leadership changes.

My impression is that the German Parteiengesetz (party law) enforces party structures that are stronger than the eventual leadership, at least for relevant parties. Constructions like Forza Italia, Five Stars or PVV are not possible. For similar reasons, German parties are quite stable by comparison. At the same time an AfD controlled by its uncontrollable membership made it difficult for its founding professors to keep their Frankenstein in the clinically pure ward of intellectual "liberal" conservativism. After her coup against Bernd Lucke, Frauke Petry made a similar mistake. She wanted to rebuild the AfD into a leadership oriented party like the French FN (now RN) under her role model Marine Le Pen, but her position in the party was weak, she didn't have enough friends and networks and she didn't understand at all how German parties in particular and the AfD in general work.

[palandio]

What kind of people are still voting for SPD?

With the SPD shrinking at that pace, mostly voters with features that make them less likely to change their voting habits quickly:
- older voters
- voters that have always voted SPD
- voters in areas where voting SPD has always been the normal thing to do
- voters from social environments where voting SPD has always been the normal thing to do
- voters from areas that are less affected by general trends and social change

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

What kind of people are still voting for SPD?

With the SPD shrinking at that pace, mostly voters with features that make them less likely to change their voting habits quickly:
- older voters
- voters that have always voted SPD
- voters in areas where voting SPD has always been the normal thing to do
- voters from social environments where voting SPD has always been the normal thing to do
- voters from areas that are less affected by general trends and social change

On should to add: The SPD is mainly supported by humanities and arts scholars, social pedagogue and teachers. Almost no craftsman or low-wage earner votes for them anymore.
Do you remember Susanne Neumann, Germany's most famous (deceased) cleaner and her infamous discussion with Sigmar Gabriel at a party convention? It was so disgusting and cringy to watch the debate, where she was looked and laughed at like a chimpanzee in a experimental laboratory by people most of whom have never done physical labor one day in their lives. For good reason she left her former party shy of her demise. The SPD's situation reminds of that of the French Social Democrats; their share of blue-collar workers is nearly at zerrrro percent. And their German collegues will soon be befallen by the same fate, too.

[Tender Branson]

My prediction for the Sachsen state election tomorrow:

30.4% CDU (-9.0)
26.3% AfD (+16.6)
14.0% Left (-4.9)
11.2% Greens (+5.5)
  7.9% SPD (-4.5)
  5.1% FDP (+1.3)
  2.6% FW (+1.0)
  2.5% Others (-6.0)

Turnout: 60% (+11)

My prediction for the Brandenburg state election tomorrow:

22.8% AfD (+10.6)
21.9% SPD (-10.0)
17.1% CDU (-5.9)
13.7% Greens (+7.5)
13.2% Left (-5.4)
  4.8% FDP (+3.3)
  4.3% FW (+1.6)
  2.2% Others (-1.7)

Turnout: 57% (+9)

[Tender Branson]

Examples of AfD campaign posters in Saxony:

Who's protecting us from the "refuge-seeking" ?

Better care for the best of us.

Human dignity also for Germans !

The East is rising up ! The >>peaceful revolution<< with the ballot paper.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

My prediction for the Brandenburg state election tomorrow:

22.8% AfD (+10.6)
21.9% SPD (-10.0)
17.1% CDU (-5.9)
13.7% Greens (+7.5)
13.2% Left (-5.4)
4.8% FDP (+3.3)
4.3% FW (+1.6)
2.2% Others (-1.7)

Turnout: 57% (+9)

The Brandenburg results are truly hard to predict. Never have I seen such a volatile course of polls before. It reminds me of a typical US-American primary with its rapidly changing "flavor of the month".
I therefore have diagrammed the set of all polls from this year regarding the Brandenburg state election: