🇩🇪 German state & local elections

[pilskonzept]

Here you are.

That's 83.2 Yes / 16.8 No on the death penalty, and 82.4 Yes / 17.6 No on Europe.

Digital-only proclamation of laws (81.4/18.6) and especially lowering the age limit for candidates (70.3/29.7) were the least popular changes. Some variation between core and periphery.

[pilskonzept]

Most interesting thing to watch out for in the 2019 State elections in eastern Germany is whether the CDU is forced to go into a coalition with Die Linke or the AfD or only just about able to go into a CDU+SPD+Grüne+FDP coalition in either of the states.

Either of these options could lead to a lot of conflict and really shake up the CDU's party base.

A three- or four-party coalition won't be exactly stable, but CDU will suffer least of all parties involved.

Formal CDU-Left or CDU-AfD coalitions can be safely ruled out. Expect a minority government in this case, followed by early elections.

[pilskonzept]

[...] but wouldn't this simply mean that the party is runnung around in circles? [...]

That's been their modus operandi since 2005. In part, I guess, caused by the fact that new political talent is joining every party but the SPD.

[pilskonzept]

Well, those numbers are certainly bad for the SPD...but how Jamaica-friendly are the Bremen Greens?

[pilskonzept]

I just read on Wikipedia that the representatives from the City of Bremen elected to the statewide Bürgerschaft also constitute the city council called Stadtbürgerschaft. (The City of Bremerhaven elects its separate Stadtverordnetenversammlung with its own members.)
Thus, there are even three kinds of personal unions: Mayor ↔ Senate President / departments ↔ Senate / Stadtbürgerschaft Bremische ↔ Bürgerschaft

The most controversial thing would occur if someone from Bremerhaven becomes Mayor of the Hanseatic City of Bremen. Weird.

I have just discovered another problem (and already solved it. Kinda.):
The delegation sent from the City of Bremen to the state legislature ("Bremische Bürgerschaft") and the Bremen city council ("Stadtbürgerschaft") can nevertheless slightly vary in their constitution. Is anyone intelligent enough to figure out how this is possible?

EU citizens may vote for the city council but not for the state legislature. Given that the state election is the much more prominent one, how many of them turn out?

[pilskonzept]

I don't even know how the administration handles that problem. EU citizens ought to be handed out different ballots than Bremen's citizens, oughtn't they?

Yes.

Since they could also elect the Ortsbeiräte and since the European elections, where they could also participate in, took place on the same day, I'd say 100%.

Well, they still need to register if they want to vote for German Euro lists instead of "home country" Euro lists (and who cares about Ortsbeiräte enough to register?) but yeah, probably a lot more of them did than would have been the case without the Euros.

[pilskonzept]

why is the SPD stronger in Brandenberg than in most of the rest of East Germany? Berlin exurbia?

Berlin exurbia is one of the reasons why the SPD's floor is a lot higher in Brandenburg than elsewhere these days. The other one is a history of relatively scandal-free governing since 1990.
 
Though the fact that the SPD won the 1990 elections in the first place is loosely related to Brandenburg's proximity to Berlin, too - resentment against the "Prussian", Berlin-centric state and its perceived neglect of the GDR's South was certainly a factor why the CDU (and other right-wing parties) did so well in Saxony and Thuringia, and thus established itself as the natural governing party in these parts.

also do the AFD strong local election results in the east mean they run any councils now?

They came first in the race for Görlitz district council (27/86) and Gera city council (12/42). The executive positions have not been filled yet.

[pilskonzept]

Linke are now strongest Party in Thüringen, thanks to CDU and SPD collapse, AFD surge.
Wont help Ramelow much though, as Red-Red-Green has no majority, nor has Jamaika nor has CDU-SPD-FDP.
And that my friends would be the first negative Majority since Weimar.

So what are the options:
Linke+CDU+???    (Extremely unlikely although Ramelow is one of the moderates in the Left)
AFD+CDU+FDP     (No way, if anywhere then in Saxony, and even there its like <5% Chance)
Linke+AFD            (National-Bolschewik Putin Fifth Collumn Coalition only in my dreams )
Snap election         (Very likely)
and the same,
even more chaos  
as before  

Someone will need to break the cordon sanitaire or there will be no more governments in the east. But who will the CDU choose they hate a bit less? AFD or Linke?
 

Minority government led by CDU or Linke, which won't last a full term but will pass at least one budget. Followed by early elections that may result in a more ordinary coalition government thanks to strategic voting.

[pilskonzept]

An AfD/CDU government would probably have a small majority in Thüringen if the FDP stays below 5% ...

Doesn't mean such a government is going to happen. CDU/AfD is just possible, though not likely, with CDU as the larger party.

[pilskonzept]

I mean with R2G at 44%+awarded others, its likely sitting at 46-48% of the chamber. That's more than enough for you to first deny and hope for the MOE, and then if it does come to pass, stick to your guns and hope someone provides outside support so as to avoid repeat elections. And FDP on 5% is certainly the high MOE result, since it missing the threshold gives R2G a majority.

This does not happen in Germany. Minority Governments are already a total no-go in Germany (google Andrea Ypsilanti) and that was just the toleration of a red-green Government by the left. Who would tolerate the Red-red-green government? CDU? FDP? That would be a death sentence for the party involved. In other countries, i would agree maybe, but not in Germany.

Also there would not be a majority for Red-Red-Green even if the FDP were out.

Anti-AfD CDUers - Merkelites if you like - may well provide (fairly conditional) support to RRG. Anti-AfD Lefties may do the same for a CDU-Green-SPD government.

It can't be done until it's done.

[pilskonzept]

What do you envisiage when you say "strategic voting" ?

Wild, messy and (for now) unpredictable swings between the parties. This is the East

More seriously: as with MPs' voting behaviour above, I could see voters flocking to the party most likely to lead a coalition.

[pilskonzept]

Would it be completely out of the question for the AfD to give passive support to the FDP and CDU or would even trying that cause too much of a crisis?

They would try to avoid (and yes, publicly refuse) that, but in the end, the vote is secret. However, the AfD is too large now, and too different in ideology, to give support to a CDU/FDP government without concessions from them.

Is the CDU putting any feelers out for potential agreements on the "broader right"?

Some state-level CDUers are. The federal party isn't.

[pilskonzept]

Saxony:
 
PIRATEN 72,4 %
ÖDP 69,7 %
SPD 68,4 %
Die Humanisten 68,4 %
Tierschutzpartei 67,1 %
Die PARTEI 65,8 %
GRÜNE 65,8 %
DIE LINKE 64,5 %
CDU 59,2 %
KPD 57,9 %
FDP 56,6 %
FREIE WÄHLER 53,9 %
Gesundheitsforschung 53,9 %
BüSo 50 %
PDV 47,4 %
NPD 47,4 %
ADPM 43,4 %
Blaue #TeamPetry 40,8 %
AfD 34,2 %

Brandenburg:

CDU 71,1 %
SPD 67,1 %
GRÜNE/B 90 63,2 %
BVB / FREIE WÄHLER 60,5 %
ÖDP 59,2 %
Tierschutzpartei 57,9 %
FDP 57,9 %
AfD 55,3 %
DIE LINKE 55,3 %
V-Partei³ 55,3 %
PIRATEN 55,3%

Unweighted. Yes, I could imagine voting for the CDU in Brandenburg but never in Saxony.

[pilskonzept]

A result like this would require a coalition between everyone except for the AfD and the Left. That isn't healthy, especially if the FDP enters the legislature.

The SPD is about to lose the few states we're still doing relatively well. NRW polls for eample are equally bad, and it won't be better in three years when the election is being held there.

Unweighted. Yes, I could imagine voting for the CDU in Brandenburg but never in Saxony.

Honestly, I'd consider that in Saxony to stop the AfD from becoming the number one. We can't have that.

Would scare off investors and skilled immigrants even more than now, but not make much of a difference to a CDU 21%/AfD 20% result otherwise. IMHO. (I'd have voted for Ursu in the Görlitz runoff, though.)

[pilskonzept]

Question:

Why was the NPD doing so well in Eisenach in this year's municipal and district elections ?

They got 11% there (+3%) and the AfD an additional 11%.

Eisenach is quite a big city with 40.000 people and not some random small town ...

They opposed the merger of Eisenach with the surrounding district.

[pilskonzept]

SPD quite a bit above their low water mark, AfD quite a bit below their high water mark in both states. On these numbers, we'll see RRG or possibly Kenya in Brandenburg, and Kenya in Saxony with an outside chance of Jamaica (thanks to AfD's troubles with candidate disqualification).

And two more years of GroKo.

[pilskonzept]

Underwhelming result for the center-left, but that is essentially the fallout of the Stuttgart21 disaster.

Schreier essentially got his own first round voters plus Körner's and those of Kienzle's who did not defect to Rockenbauch. Given that he was a popular mayor of a Stuttgart suburb (Backnang), Nopper underperformed too.

[pilskonzept]

This election result caused a major earthquake in that region!!!

Earthquakes are bad for bridges but not so much for tunnels, right?

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Does Wagenknecht have extreme anti-lockdown views? I understand she also published a book critiquing identity politics, extreme "open borders" positions on immigration etc., and the state of the modern-day left which naturally has provoked a flurry of controversy but I'm more sympathetic to her on that point.

Extreme, no - but she's clearly joined the anti-mainstream position on this point.

[pilskonzept]

The one actually interesting thing about this election is the big SSW improvement. Was it more mobilising Danish-speakers, soaking up floating leftish voters, or a little of both?

On the constituency level, it seems SSW improved everywhere, including in places where they did not run a constituency (direct vote) candidate, like Dithmarschen and Ostholstein.
They also improved in places with actual Danish speakers like Flensburg-Land, but soaking up protest voters must have been key.