Why did Bill Nelson lose?

[Storr]

FL is a state like NC with a huge generation gap.  In the Florida and North Carolina of 2040, Democrats will be able to win, but we're not living in 2040.

With everyone under the age of 45, Nelson won and it wasn't close at all - 63% to 36%.

With everyone over the age of 45, Scott won 54% to 45%.

It's just that 75% of the electorate was over the age of 45.

Democrats can win in NC, as it has a Dem Governor. Florida's electorate is much older than NC's.

[pppolitics]

...because he sleepwalked into the election.

Nelson know for years that Scott was going to run for the senate.

He should have completely destroyed Scott before he even got into the race.

[TML]

Even if Nelson somehow does win after the recount, he would still have underperformed the polls.

Nelson was an establishment Democrat who wasn't inspiring to Democratic base voters. This is the same narrative which explains how several other Democratic Senate candidates either lost outright (by higher-than-expected margins) or underperformed the polls if they won.

I'll crunch the numbers later when I have more time, but at first glance, when I compare Nelson's preliminary numbers to Obama's 2012 numbers (the last close Democratic statewide win in FL), the problem appears to be a combination of relatively low turnout in Democratic base counties, as well as increased Republican margins in suburban/exurban counties near Orlando/Tampa. The latter was what cost Hillary in 2016 against Trump, while the former was what cost Sink in 2010 against Scott.

[henster]

Always confounded by the fact that a state full of seniors elected an ex CEO of a company that committed massive Medicare fraud. I attributed it to the waves carrying him over but now I don't know. I feel like most Rs can out and out say they want to privatize SS/raise retirement age and most seniors would vote for them.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

It ain't over till it's over. As far as I know, no major networks have projected or called the election for Scott. The same is true for Arizona. We'll need a recount before we can tell who really won in either of these races.

FOX called it last night

[Confused Democrat]

Because the rural areas had 2016 turnout levels. Simple as that.

[Technocracy Timmy]

We'll need a recount before we can tell who really won in either of these races.

Florida recounts: Giving Democrats false hope since 2000.

[Skye]

But I was told Scott was wasting all his money into something futile.


Anyway, forgetting the fact that the race is practically a tie, we can't forget several facts:

-$$$: Scott has a lot of it and spent it liberally. As he always does. That alone should have sounded the alarms far earlier for the Democrats.
-Nelson was caught sleeping: Seriously he allowed Scott to take free reign of the airwaves early in the race. Nelson hadn't had a competitive race in forever, so he didn't react properly.
-Scott is far better liked than he was in his previous races: IIRC, Scott won in 2014 despite underwater approval ratings. That wasn't the case this year, since he had decent numbers.
-The hurricane (?): Maybe the hurricane bump was real and helped him in the panhandle.
-Florida: Come on. It's Florida.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

Always confounded by the fact that a state full of seniors elected an ex CEO of a company that committed massive Medicare fraud. I attributed it to the waves carrying him over but now I don't know. I feel like most Rs can out and out say they want to privatize SS/raise retirement age and most seniors would vote for them.

It's the dementia.

[SCNCmod]

Because he only got 56% of the Latino vote. 

& because Scott spent $75M ... being able to pull that many Millions from your personal account can definitely make a 0.4% difference.  ...The same way $75M bought his 1.1% win in his 1st Gov election and his 1.0% win in his Gov re-election campaign (BTW Personal Wealth initially built when he was CEO of a company that defrauded Medicare & Medicaid... which resulted in the largest health care fraud settlement in U.S. history)

[Strudelcutie4427]

2 words. HURRICANE IRMA. That storm sent Gov/Sen Scott’s numbers way higher

[Mister Mets]

I'd imagine a combination of several things.

- Rick Scott was a popular Governor (which might be a surprise given how close his reelection was), and he just handled a crisis rather well.
- Rick Scott entered the race with higher name recognition than the incumbent in a very large state.
- Bill Nelson and Democrats probably underestimated Scott's chances, figuring that no incumbent Democrat was going to lose a midterm in a state Trump won by less than one percent.
- There was the expectation that DeSantis was going to drag down Republicans as well, and that Gillum would lift Nelson, but the FBI investigation hurt Gillum.
- Republicans and moderates saw Nelson as a liberal, due to the Kavanaugh vote, and possibly Gillum.

[SN2903]

1. Gillum was too far left and dragged down Nelson.
2. He is too old.
3. Florida is really becoming pretty solidly R. Not likely R but a strong lean R state. Trump is gonna take it in 2020 and Ohio. The election will be decided in the midwest.

[UWS]

1. Gillum was too far left and dragged down Nelson.
2. He is too old.
3. Florida is really becoming pretty solidly R. Not likely R but a strong lean R state. Trump is gonna take it in 2020 and Ohio. The election will be decided in the midwest.

I agree with most of these points except for point 2. But there are also other points explaining why Nelson lost : Scott is among the most popular Governors in America, had strong record of job creation during his governorship and strongly improved the state's education (Florida passed from #35 in 2010 to #7 among the 50 states in 2018 in terms of education) and his handling of hurricanes is strongly appreciated.

[sg0508]

1) Too old
2) Crappy campaign - no visibility
3) Been around too long
4) ESTABLISHMENT

[RaphaelDLG]

He was asleep the entire campaign.  Also, Rick Scott's $.  Also, crazy/senile old people.

[ajc0918]

Umm don't hold your breath but my sources in the Nelson campaign say the numbers are looking better and better for them.

The Scott campaign is now accusing Nelson of trying to steal the election.

[Oryxslayer]

Umm don't hold your breath but my sources in the Nelson campaign say the numbers are looking better and better for them.

The Scott campaign is now accusing Nelson of trying to steal the election.

Florida does what Florida wants.

[Roronoa D. Law]

1) A lackluster campaign relied too much on Gillium enthusiasm and opposition midterm
2) Polls depressed turnout and Democrats will always find a way not to vote or leave the line
3) Collapse with old Democratic white voters
4) Asian, Hispanics, and Muslim Americans do not share the same long history of racism as African, Jewish, and Native Americans have and are not as polarized to one party as they are. Nelson should not have assumed that he had Hispanics in the bag especially against Scott. 

[auburntiger]

Yeah...all of those last-minute polls showing both Nelson and Gillum up anywhere from +3 to +7 were definitely over estimating, but I didn't expect either of them to actually lose. I only missed FL on the senate predictions (looks like AZ will stay red). Both parties were going to get 47-48% no matter what. I simply don't believe any poll showing a margin >5% or anyone below  45-46%. Once again, Trafalgar nailed both outcomes here. They also nailed Michigan in 2016 - just sayin

Conventional wisdom was that DeSantis was going to bring down Scott. The opposite actually happened (Gillum dragged Nelson down), based on the margins between each race. The latest numbers I see show 44,000 margin in Gov; 22,000 in Senate each with 99.92% and 99.87% reporting. There's no way to make up that kind of deficit with so little left even if they both go into a recount, which I predicted on another thread.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

Because he only got 56% of the Latino vote. 

Does that include Cubans?

[GP270watch]

 Florida reporter Caputo is showing that Cubans supported the Republican ticket in Miami-Dade, they did an analysis of the majority Cuban precincts. Cubans went away from Trump in 2016 but came back to the Republicans.

[ON Progressive]

Florida reporter Caputo is showing that Cubans supported the Republican ticket in Miami-Dade, they did an analysis of the majority Cuban precincts. Cubans went away from Trump in 2016 but came back to the Republicans.

We saw that in the special elections too. Cubans are still GOP downballot at least.

[here2view]

Nelson was asleep at the wheel until like September. There were multiple threads about this concern. Now, I don't know if that would have changed things, but I can't help but wonder.