Republican Targets 2020

[Skill and Chance]

Post 2020, Georgia Republicans need to restore the 10-4 map. They got a little too cocky with metro Atlanta, so the 4 required VRA seats should now all be in the Atlanta Area, and we should cut up Sanford Bishop's SW GA seat. That should net us 1, maybe 2

1 Blue. R+9
2 Green R+9
3 Purple R+11
4. Red D+21
5. Yellow D+27
6. Teal R+20
7. Gray D+16
8. Orange R+16
9. Cyan R+17
10. Pink R+31
11. Lime Green R+20
12. Navy Blue R+8
13. Salmon D+15
14. Brown R+9

Let's see what happens with GA-07 with the absentees/provisionals and next year.  They might want to stop at 9/5, with all 5 Dems in metro Atlanta.  I also expect the backlash to "ugly" partisan redistricting to be stronger (especially in statewide races) next decade, so that may be a factor in how far legislatures will go.

Yeah Id want 5-9. Less outrage over gerrymandering and locks em in longer.

GA-07 may very well flip this year.  Bordeaux is only down 901 votes and I think there are a whole bunch of provisionals left to count in Gwinnett.  It's likely to only get worse with presidential turnout.  You could make them both clean initially D+3ish seats that might flip if 2022 is a 2010 but would be expected to creep up to D+10 over the decade and pick up GA-02?

[Skill and Chance]

Can they legally cut Bishop's seat?

Ask John Roberts.  Historically, he doesn't much like the concept of VRA-required seats. 

[lfromnj]

Can they legally cut Bishop's seat?

Ask John Roberts.  Historically, he doesn't much like the concept of VRA-required seats. 

Plus sanfords seat is massively underpopulated like a 100,000 less than other seats. Still a 10-4 gerrymander in Atlanta can backfire and I would do a 9-5 rather than a 10-4.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

It is funny how a discussion of how Republicans could win back Congress immediately turns to a discussion of how Republicans could rig elections in states like Georgia so that they could win without appealing to voters, as opposed to a discussion of how Republicans could appeal to voters.

[lfromnj]

It is funny how a discussion of how Republicans could win back Congress immediately turns to a discussion of how Republicans could rig elections in states like Georgia so that they could win without appealing to voters, as opposed to a discussion of how Republicans could appeal to voters.

I mean we know that Il 14th is useless coz the dems will rig it back.
I wonder if the reps how the reps will gerrymander cunningham. I don't think those suburban whites in Charleston will like being placed with the rural hicks.

[Gass3268]

It is funny how a discussion of how Republicans could win back Congress immediately turns to a discussion of how Republicans could rig elections in states like Georgia so that they could win without appealing to voters, as opposed to a discussion of how Republicans could appeal to voters.

I mean we know that Il 14th is useless coz the dems will rig it back.
I wonder if the reps how the reps will gerrymander cunningham. I don't think those suburban whites in Charleston will like being placed with the rural hicks.

Yeah, I'm not sure if there is anything that South Carolina can do because SC-01 is surrounded by SC-06 (VRA district) on all but one very narrow side.

[lfromnj]

Just realized that Cunningham is the first democrat to represent a white majority district in the deep south since 2014 when Barrow lost.

[SN2903]

John James has an excellent chance of beating Peters in 2020. Trump will be on the ballot and the mood will be more anti dem because of Pelosi as speaker. He also now has high name recognition in Michigan. I think Michigan will have 2 Republican senators soon. Stabenow will not win again.

Yeah, because, as we all know, voters have Pelosi on their mind when they vote in 2020, and will vote against the D senator because of that.

I mean, come on, this reasoning is so poor.

Stabenow is a moderately big name in Michigan and was relatively popular.
Yet John james only lost to her by 7.
Peters has no name recognition and he is very much in danger.

Peters also easily threw off a strong Republican challenger in 2014, and the 2018 race was barely paid attention to.
I sincerely doubt that JJ would put up that much of a challenge to Peters.

Please stop commenting on stuff you have no knowledge about.

Teri Lynn Land, Gary Peters opponent in 2014, had a meltdown in May 2014. She pretty much stopped making public appearences after that and ran an incredibly lousy campaign.

Oh yeah, I completely forgot about that meltdown. Though I will still say, Gary Peters is probably 3rd in the possible competitive ranking, behind NH and AL. Considering how few seats the Ds have to defend(AL is probably lost), if Peters showed any sign of weakness, it would be solved. JJ definitely overpreformed, but Im more inclined it was due to it going under the radar(see OK-02 for the Ds), than due JJ being some god candidate.

Seriously you have no idea what you are talking about. James had no national $ besides a little from Adelson at the end and no Trump rallies and it was an anti-GOP mood year and he still got within 6.5 points. Much of the strength for dems in Michigan in 2018 was due to strong candidate recruitment and Whitmer was the kind of democrat that didn't come across like a socialist plus Schuette was a terrible candidate. 2020 will be much more pro GOP mood with Trump on the ballot. Peters is a joke. James can easily beat him in 2020. Michigan is a purple state.

[libertpaulian]

John James has an excellent chance of beating Peters in 2020. Trump will be on the ballot and the mood will be more anti dem because of Pelosi as speaker. He also now has high name recognition in Michigan. I think Michigan will have 2 Republican senators soon. Stabenow will not win again.

Yeah, because, as we all know, voters have Pelosi on their mind when they vote in 2020, and will vote against the D senator because of that.

I mean, come on, this reasoning is so poor.

Stabenow is a moderately big name in Michigan and was relatively popular.
Yet John james only lost to her by 7.
Peters has no name recognition and he is very much in danger.

Peters also easily threw off a strong Republican challenger in 2014, and the 2018 race was barely paid attention to.
I sincerely doubt that JJ would put up that much of a challenge to Peters.

Please stop commenting on stuff you have no knowledge about.

Teri Lynn Land, Gary Peters opponent in 2014, had a meltdown in May 2014. She pretty much stopped making public appearences after that and ran an incredibly lousy campaign.

Oh yeah, I completely forgot about that meltdown. Though I will still say, Gary Peters is probably 3rd in the possible competitive ranking, behind NH and AL. Considering how few seats the Ds have to defend(AL is probably lost), if Peters showed any sign of weakness, it would be solved. JJ definitely overpreformed, but Im more inclined it was due to it going under the radar(see OK-02 for the Ds), than due JJ being some god candidate.

Seriously you have no idea what you are talking about. James had no national $ besides a little from Adelson at the end and no Trump rallies and it was an anti-GOP mood year and he still got within 6.5 points. Much of the strength for dems in Michigan in 2018 was due to strong candidate recruitment and Whitmer was the kind of democrat that didn't come across like a socialist plus Schuette was a terrible candidate. 2020 will be much more pro GOP mood with Trump on the ballot. Peters is a joke. James can easily beat him in 2020. Michigan is a purple state.

Do you think James would have won if El-Sayed was the governor nominee?

[lfromnj]

Just realized that Cunningham is the first democrat to represent a white majority district in the deep south since 2014 when Barrow lost.

Lucy McBath too

I think mcbath is now majority minority due to population estimates?
Not sure though.

[lfromnj]

Just realized that Cunningham is the first democrat to represent a white majority district in the deep south since 2014 when Barrow lost.

Lucy McBath too

I think mcbath is now majority minority due to population estimates?
Not sure though.

No it’s still well over 50% white

Ah ok. Still its a nice bench rebuilding. Im keeping mcbath at Lean D for now considering this is the one district that Trump carried in 2016 that TRUMP WILL not carry in 2020 but a moderate republican might still win if trump does ok.

[Woody]

Spankburger, or whatever her name is. With Trump being on the ballot next election she is definitely going to lose her seat. She's going to end up like Periello.

[wbrocks67]

Spanberger and Luria are clearly very popular -- their favorables were very good in the NYT polls. I wouldn't be shocked to see them get even more well liked after their 2 year tenures.

[IceSpear]

Spankburger, or whatever her name is. With Trump being on the ballot next election she is definitely going to lose her seat. She's going to end up like Periello.

Cockburn would've been the Perriello if she somehow managed to win, considering it would've been a fluke and is even the same district Perriello had. Spanberger has a good chance at hanging on if the Richmond suburbs continue to swing against the Republicans.

[2016]

Spanberger and Luria are clearly very popular -- their favorables were very good in the NYT polls. I wouldn't be shocked to see them get even more well liked after their 2 year tenures.

A lot depends on who the Democratic Nominee is in 2020. That Person could be a huge help (Biden, Castro, Hickenlooper, Inslee, Bullock) or a huge Drag (Harris, Booker, Gillibrand, Warren, O'Rourke).

These 2018 MidTerms told us more than anything being a Bold Progressive isn't sitting well with Voters see Gillum, Abrams.

[libertpaulian]

Spanberger and Luria are clearly very popular -- their favorables were very good in the NYT polls. I wouldn't be shocked to see them get even more well liked after their 2 year tenures.

A lot depends on who the Democratic Nominee is in 2020. That Person could be a huge help (Biden, Castro, Hickenlooper, Inslee, Bullock) or a huge Drag (Harris, Booker, Gillibrand, Warren, O'Rourke).

These 2018 MidTerms told us more than anything being a Bold Progressive isn't sitting well with Voters see Gillum, Abrams.

Gillum's "bold progressive" stances definitely were more of a liability than an asset, but it also didn't help matters that the FBI thing was an albatross around his neck throughout the entire campaign.

As for Abrams, I think her unapologetic stance on sandblasting Stone Mountain helped send the rural rubes out in full force.  "MUH SUTHRON R00TS" and all that.

I don't necessarily think Beto would suffer from those same roadblocks.  The DUI thing is the biggest skeleton in his closet, and the country already knows about it.  Plus, he's white and male, so there might be less of an impediment for him among the reactionary wing of the country.  Being a "celebrity" in his party definitely helps matters.  

I mean, let's get real for a second.  The Democrats' bench is pretty thin, and full of aging Boomers and Silents near death's door.  O'Rourke is a breath of fresh air in comparison.  

The Gen X'ers that ARE potential contenders are excellent fits for their states/districts/whatever, but horrible fits nationwide.  Same goes for the Boomer and Silent contenders.  Booker is overrated and has skeletons in his closet from his days in Newark, Kamala has a coastal elitist/identity politics way about her, Gillibrand is Hillary if she were a couple decades younger and born in Generation X, Warren would implode, Hickenlooper is too hippie, Avenatti ain't going anywhere, Castro comes off as too beta, and I don't know too much about Inslee.

I think Biden, Beto, and Bullock are the only realistic chances the Dems have at ousting Trump and denying him a second term.

[Heisenberg]

Can they legally cut Bishop's seat?

They can replace it with another minority vote sink seat in the Atlanta-area, I think. It would keep the same number of VRA seats, and also help shore up GA-07.

[Virginiá]

The fact that Nelson is on track to lose barring a huge error I think throws water on the "bold progressive" = negative idea. I don't think it really mattered. And for Georgia, Abrams came closer than anyone else since the state went to Republicans in the early 2000s.

Florida is just Florida.

[libertpaulian]

The fact that Nelson is on track to lose barring a huge error I think throws water on the "bold progressive" = negative idea. I don't think it really mattered. And for Georgia, Abrams came closer than anyone else since the state went to Republicans in the early 2000s.

Florida is just Florida.

I think the problem with Abrams, Gillum, and Beto wasn't that they were boldly progressive on things like Medicaid expansion, the minimum wage, and criminal justice reform.  It's that they were boldly progressive on culture war matters that a significant chunk of their states' respective populations are largely reactionary about.

Beto made no bones about wanting to ban assault rifles and high-capacity magazines, said that police officers were acting as a "New Jim Crow," and gave a speech about Colin Kaepernick kneeling that went viral all over social media.

Gillum signed that anti-police pledge, made a promise that was very similar to Beto's on banning assault rifles, and racialized the contest between him and DeSantis.  Plus, the FBI thing didn't help matters, either.

Abrams never wavered from wanting to sandblast Stone Mountain...in a state where the Confederate flag is treated as a religious icon.  I hate to say it, but that matters, especially among the rural voters who worship the rebel flag in such a way.

I think if they would have toned it down or moved to the middle post-Labor Day on these topics, they either could have won outright or made their defeats even narrower.  In Abrams' case, we'd probably be discussing how she'd do in a December runoff right now.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Spankburger, or whatever her name is. With Trump being on the ballot next election she is definitely going to lose her seat. She's going to end up like Periello.

Cockburn would've been the Perriello if she somehow managed to win, considering it would've been a fluke and is even the same district Perriello had. Spanberger has a good chance at hanging on if the Richmond suburbs continue to swing against the Republicans.

Yeah, the only reason Spanberger won is because Chesterfield county transformed in a couple of years from Republican stronghold to Lean Democratic. If it continues to trend the way of Henrico, then Spanberger will have no problem to be reelected.

[libertpaulian]

Spankburger, or whatever her name is. With Trump being on the ballot next election she is definitely going to lose her seat. She's going to end up like Periello.

Cockburn would've been the Perriello if she somehow managed to win, considering it would've been a fluke and is even the same district Perriello had. Spanberger has a good chance at hanging on if the Richmond suburbs continue to swing against the Republicans.

Yeah, the only reason Spanberger won is because Chesterfield county transformed in a couple of years from Republican stronghold to Lean Democratic. If it continues to trend the way of Henrico, then Spanberger will have no problem to be reelected.

I think the fact that Clinton won Chesterfield in 2016 should serve as a warning bell to Republicans that it's not only NOVA and the college towns that are turning the state blue but also the other major metros in the state.

[Virginiá]

I think the problem with Abrams, Gillum, and Beto wasn't that they were boldly progressive on things like Medicaid expansion, the minimum wage, and criminal justice reform.  It's that they were boldly progressive on culture war matters that a significant chunk of their states' respective populations are largely reactionary about.

[...]

That's a good point, although I would also argue that part of the reason they got such passionate support may be at least partially due to their culturally progressive positions. It's not just conservatives that care about that stuff. So it's possible Abrams/Beto might have generated different responses from their side of the electorate if they didn't do some of those. Maybe they gain some votes from the other side, but lose some on theirs (lose in the form of some voters just not showing up). And yes the FBI stuff is a problem and it would be easy to argue that it cost him at least the 30-40k votes he needs to win. But I wouldn't use it as the core reason he lost. Close elections allow for any number of reasons to be used tho.

I had stopped expecting Beto to win well before the election (although I thought he had a chance), so the final result was pleasantly surprising to me. In fact, what really blew me away was that it wasn't just Beto over-performing. It seemed like a genuine Democratic rebound in Texas that reverberated all the way downballot, potentially signifying that Texas is now open for business.

[libertpaulian]

I think the problem with Abrams, Gillum, and Beto wasn't that they were boldly progressive on things like Medicaid expansion, the minimum wage, and criminal justice reform.  It's that they were boldly progressive on culture war matters that a significant chunk of their states' respective populations are largely reactionary about.

[...]

That's a good point, although I would also argue that part of the reason they got such passionate support may be at least partially due to their culturally progressive positions. It's not just conservatives that care about that stuff. So it's possible Abrams/Beto might have generated different responses from their side of the electorate if they didn't do some of those. Maybe they gain some votes from the other side, but lose some on theirs (lose in the form of some voters just not showing up). And yes the FBI stuff is a problem and it would be easy to argue that it cost him at least the 30-40k votes he needs to win. But I wouldn't use it as the core reason he lost. Close elections allow for any number of reasons to be used tho.

I had stopped expecting Beto to win well before the election (although I thought he had a chance), so the final result was pleasantly surprising to me. In fact, what really blew me away was that it wasn't just Beto over-performing. It seemed like a genuine Democratic rebound in Texas that reverberated all the way downballot, potentially signifying that Texas is now open for business.

Those points are also true.  Beto's viral video regarding Kaepernick probably excited African-Americans in Dallas and Houston.  

You do have to concede, though, that the Stone Mountain thing probably cost Abrams a bit of rural and small town support she might have gotten otherwise.  I mean, she doesn't need gimmicks to excite the state's African-Americans, given she had a shot at being the nation's first African-American female governor, plus her stances on the issues are those AAs largely agree with.  Plus, I think very few people on the left-leaning side care about what's carved into some mountain, anyway.  

[Virginiá]

You do have to concede, though, that the Stone Mountain thing probably cost Abrams a bit of rural and small town support she might have gotten otherwise.

Yea that would be fair. I can see that being the case.

[2016]

The Question also is: Does the eventual Democratic Nominee want the "Socialist, Venezuela-Thing" breathing down his neck for 6-7 months? I don't think do.

So, if I were a Democrat I definitly would go with either 1) Biden or 2) Some of the more moderate Govs like Hickenlooper, Bullock, etc.

Of Course being a Republican I'd love to see Trump going up against these Sanders, Warren, Harris, Gillibrand, Booker, O'Rourke type Democrats.

Trump loves CONTRAST so more than anything he'd love to run against a so-called "Bold Progressive" to rile up the base among other things.

All these White Republican Suburbunites especially White Women who fled Trump & Republicans in 2018 MidTerms will come back to him if they hear the "S-Word" or "Imp-Word".

Democrats already overplayed their hand in the Senate this year by blocking Kavanaugh and suffered it looks like a 2 or 3 Seat loss for that Obstructunism.

Nancy Pelosi (assuming she gets to be Speaker) needs to be careful not overplaying her hand. She did that already once between 2008-2010 with the ACA among other things and Democrats suffered a 63-Seat loss.

IF she goes too far with the Russia Investigations or even dare tries to impeach Kavanaugh or Trump Democrats will suffer a backlash in 2020 the Country rarely sees.