Was Gillum overrated? Will Democrat win with Gwen Graham?

[ericpolitico]

I think Florida is just too conservative to accept a progressive left such as Gillum.
Gwen maybe a better candidate.

But on the other hand moderate Nelson lost too or maybe Gillum dragged down him.

Discuss!

[sg0508]

He was the wrong Primary choice and his left wing agenda wasn't going to fly.  Economically, Florida is pretty conservative. So, any policies that start hinting at a state income tax or policies that benefit freeloaders (and there are a TON in this state given the drug and rehab culture) won't work.

And again, it's a broken record, but the Democrats' ground game here is AWFUL and has been bad since Jeb Bush became governor.

[sg0508]

I think Florida is just too conservative to accept a progressive left such as Gillum.
Gwen maybe a better candidate.

But on the other hand moderate Nelson lost too or maybe Gillum dragged down him.

Discuss!

Nelson was OLD, around too long and ESTABLISHMENT. It's the same reason Stabenow almost lost in MI (same class as Nelson back in '00).  Graham would likely have won.  The Democrats made the wrong Primary choice (think about the DE Senate Primary where Mike Castle lost back in '10).

[ajc0918]

Gillum is down only 40k votes... Nelson is down only 20k votes

The hot takes that this election proved anything is exhausting. Florida will remain a toss up state because there are so many factors moving in tandem that offset the state drifting one way or the other.

[ajc0918]

He was the wrong Primary choice and his left wing agenda wasn't going to fly.  Economically, Florida is pretty conservative. So, any policies that start hinting at a state income tax or policies that benefit freeloaders (and there are a TON in this state given the drug and rehab culture) won't work.

And again, it's a broken record, but the Democrats' ground game here is AWFUL and has been bad since Jeb Bush became governor.

This was never hinted at because it would never happen. If you thought that then you're an idiot who doesn't understand how our government works.

[sg0508]

He was the wrong Primary choice and his left wing agenda wasn't going to fly.  Economically, Florida is pretty conservative. So, any policies that start hinting at a state income tax or policies that benefit freeloaders (and there are a TON in this state given the drug and rehab culture) won't work.

And again, it's a broken record, but the Democrats' ground game here is AWFUL and has been bad since Jeb Bush became governor.

This was never hinted at because it would never happen. If you thought that then you're an idiot who doesn't understand how our government works.

I didn't say it would happen.  The "perception" though, even down here in Palm Beach was that the freeloaders would make out and someone has to pay for that.  By the way, I can near GUARANTEE I put more away every week than you do.  Take that to the bank .

[ajc0918]

He was the wrong Primary choice and his left wing agenda wasn't going to fly.  Economically, Florida is pretty conservative. So, any policies that start hinting at a state income tax or policies that benefit freeloaders (and there are a TON in this state given the drug and rehab culture) won't work.

And again, it's a broken record, but the Democrats' ground game here is AWFUL and has been bad since Jeb Bush became governor.

This was never hinted at because it would never happen. If you thought that then you're an idiot who doesn't understand how our government works.

I didn't say it would happen.  The "perception" though, even down here in Palm Beach was that the freeloaders would make out and someone has to pay for that.  By the way, I can near GUARANTEE I put more away every week than you do.  Take that to the bank .

As a 34 year old I would hope you do... Lmfao

[Pandaguineapig]

Graham would have won and Putnam would have destroyed Gillum rather than win narrowly, both parties nominated weak candidates

[Da2017]

Again I think what sunk Gillum was his baggage. The Dems could of run on the same platinum with a different candidate and might of pulled it off. Abrams ran on a similar platform and still can within a point or two from Georgia,s governor,s mansion.

[Storr]

Again I think what sunk Gillum was his baggage. The Dems could of run on the same platinum with a different candidate and might of pulled it off. Abrams ran on a similar platform and still can within a point or two from Georgia,s governor,s mansion.

Yeah, it always seemed to me the association with corruption kept dragging him down.

[Donerail]

absolutely not, he overperformed than the "moderates" the Dems put up the last couple cycles. graham torpedoes black turnout in duval, etc & loses by a bigger margin.

Again I think what sunk Gillum was his baggage. The Dems could of run on the same platinum with a different candidate and might of pulled it off. Abrams ran on a similar platform and still can within a point or two from Georgia,s governor,s mansion.

the last governor oversaw the largest medicare fraud in us history. gillum improperly accepted a concert ticket.

[TML]

Gillum ditched some of his populist progressive rhetoric after winning the primary, and that turned off some progressive base voters. His decision to have people like Hillary Clinton and Debbie Wasserman-Schultz (two relatively unpopular figures) campaign alongside him also didn't help matters. Without these two factors, Democratic base turnout would almost certainly have been higher, and as I mentioned elsewhere, I think base turnout was one of the decisive factors in this election.

IMO, Graham would probably have performed at levels closer to Patrick Murphy in 2016.

[Da2017]

Gillum ditched some of his populist progressive rhetoric after winning the primary, and that turned off some progressive base voters. His decision to have people like Hillary Clinton and Debbie Wasserman-Schultz (two relatively unpopular figures) campaign alongside him also didn't help matters. Without these two factors, Democratic base turnout would almost certainly have been higher, and as I mentioned elsewhere, I think base turnout was one of the decisive factors in this election.

IMO, Graham would probably have performed at levels closer to Patrick Murphy in 2016.

Hillary Clinton should not be allowed anywhere on the campaign trail. She is the one of things that unites the GOP. I think it be wise for the dems to distance themselves from her.

[GP270watch]

 Graham would have lost by at least 100 to 150k votes, imo.

 People are overreacting. Florida is a virtual coinflip. If you want to get theoretical maybe a coin with a .5-1% R bias. But Republicans are maxing out their current voter base. Democrats have a lot more untapped vote if the current climate stays the same.

 But all this goes out the window if whites continue to slide into the Republican party. This is a real story that is happening but the media doesn't like to talk about. They'll talk about depressed black turnout, low Latino voter rates, voter suppression, and other important issues but not the white flight of rural and exburban voters to Trumpism.

[Badger]

He was the wrong Primary choice and his left wing agenda wasn't going to fly.  Economically, Florida is pretty conservative. So, any policies that start hinting at a state income tax or policies that benefit freeloaders (and there are a TON in this state given the drug and rehab culture) won't work.

And again, it's a broken record, but the Democrats' ground game here is AWFUL and has been bad since Jeb Bush became governor.

This was never hinted at because it would never happen. If you thought that then you're an idiot who doesn't understand how our government works.

I didn't say it would happen.  The "perception" though, even down here in Palm Beach was that the freeloaders would make out and someone has to pay for that.  By the way, I can near GUARANTEE I put more away every week than you do.  Take that to the bank .

That doesn't mean you're not an idiot.

To answer the question, these races were lost or won by fractions of a percentage point. If Gilliam and Nelson had done a couple iota's better oh, this thread would be talking about Florida finally realigning to a true purple State.

 Get over yourselves Atlas.

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

Gillum wasn't overrated.

DeSantis's (/Scott's/Trump's) ability to turn out rural voters was overlooked again. Without a Trump magnifying glass on this race that activates rural voters, Gillum wins comfortably. Unfortunately Trump knows how crucial Florida is to his 2020 stakes, so we can expect the same level of activation in the next cycle.

[Roblox]

A big issue for democrats in Florida is the fact that some of the fastest growing areas in the state are the R-trending exurbs near Tampa and Orlando, as well as the villages.

[Adam Griffin]

Remember when people were telling me I was wrong for saying Nelson would do better than Gillum?

[Reaganfan]

A big issue for democrats in Florida is the fact that some of the fastest growing areas in the state are the R-trending exurbs near Tampa and Orlando, as well as the villages.

Florida has changed as well in the last twenty years. Florida of 1998 was a whole different state, and Miami/Dade and Broward were much more Democratic powerhouses than today. They always win overwhelmingly with urban voters, but I feel many of those older Gore 2000 types have since moved GOP or passed on.

[Mr. Smith]

Nope, DeSantis was underrated. Putnam would've lost.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

There are votes still left to be counted