Thoughts about the results in Colorado?

[Calthrina950]

The question is as in the title. While the Democratic "wave" did not manifest in full force throughout the country, it did hit Colorado, my home state, hard. Jared Polis, as expected, decisively defeated Walker Stapleton for the Colorado governorship. Polis got 53% of the vote, winning by 10 percentage points. Stapleton was annihilated in the Denver metropolitan area. Polis beat him by 13 points in Adams County, Larimer County, and Jefferson County each, by 18 points in Arapahoe County, and by 21 points in Broomfield. He got 77% in Denver County and 75% in Boulder County, in addition to getting 73% in Pitkin County (Aspen) and 75% in San Juan County (Telluride).

Stapleton still won Republican strongholds Douglas County (Castle Rock), El Paso County (Colorado Springs), and Weld County (Greeley) by double digits, but they were nowhere near enough to outweigh the influence of the Denver metropolitan area. He managed to win Las Animas County (Trinidad) and Conejos County, but failed to flip Pueblo or Huerfano Counties, as he had hoped. Polis won Garfield County (Glenwood Springs) and Chaffee County (Salida), counties which Trump carried in 2016.

This was not all. Democrats swept all of the other statewide offices in Colorado: Phil Weiser beat James Holmes prosecutor George Brauchler for Attorney General, Jena Griswold ousted incumbent Republican Secretary of State Wayne Williams, and Dave Young beat Brian Watson for State Treasurer. Democrats won back control of the State Senate, giving them a trifecta. In the House, Jason Crow decisively defeated Mike Coffman in CO-06.

One bright spot for Republicans was in CO-03, where Scott Tipton managed to fend off the challenge of Diane Mitsch-Bush. Interestingly enough, in my district (CO-05), Doug Lamborn, though still defeating Stephany Rose-Spaulding by 20 percentage points, failed to crack 60%, the first time since 2006 that he failed to cross that mark. Spaulding did about four percentage points better than Misty Plowright, who lost to Lamborn 62-34% back in 2016.

So, what do you think about these results? What do they say about Colorado in 2020? What path is Colorado headed on? And what will be the future of the Republican and Democratic Parties in the state? Discuss below.

[Figueira]

All signs point to Colorado no longer being a swing state. Also, so much for Polis being a weak candidate, haha.

[smoltchanov]

All signs point to Colorado no longer being a swing state. Also, so much for Polis being a weak candidate, haha.

Generally agree. While it, obviously, isn't (and will not be in foreseable future) so blue as California and New York, it (most likely) will be at least moderately Democratic in most elections. Thus, present day Republican party is unlikely to have too bright future in the state. Of course - it may continue to win in conservative areas (there are some even in Vermont in Massachysetts, after all), but that's all. And with present day poarization levels - i don.t see Colorado's Charlie Baker's or Phill Scott's able to win despite all this.

[Politician]

RIP Cory Gardner

[sg0508]

Gardner will be a litmus test in a few years.  Weed, the major influx of young people (although cost of living is pushing many out of CO), and the major growth in Hispanics swung CO bigtime.

[Snipee356]

Beautiful safe D state!

RIP Cory Gardner

[scutosaurus]

Beautiful safe D state!

RIP Cory Gardner

[Badger]

Beautiful safe D state!

RIP Cory Gardner

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

I don't know why anybody considered this race to be close at all. Rs swept downballot races in 2014 because it was a (relatively) low-turnout race in which Ds were demoralized. Historically weak candidate Hillary Clinton (TM) won comfortably in 2016. The state legislature was only one seat away from both chambers being under Democratic control. None of the statewide office races had surprising, or frankly even interesting results.

I'm mildly encouraged at Polis's performance in Southern Colorado and disappointed at how poorly he did in Mesa County (Grand Junction). Polis got edged in Las Animas and Conejos but won back Pueblo county, where steel/manufacturing are big and Trump made major gains in 2016. I would have figured with the explosive growth and change in Grand Junction that he would have fared better there though.

I think two things about CO outcomes are interesting:

1. Ballot initiatives and funding proposals bombed. Despite all of the progressive energy in the state/nationwide, 112 (the drilling setback proposal) ran 10 points behind Polis. This one isn't quite surprising as it was painted as a pretty radical proposal, but the education and transportation funding also ran a few points behind the statewide Democrats.

In a vaccuum, funding proposals bombing isn't surprising in Colorado. But this reminds me a lot of the opposite trend we saw in deep red states: ballot initiatives for a progressive agenda passing while the state overwhelmingly voted for Republicans (minimum wage hikes in MO and AR, Medicaid expansion in UT, ID and NE). This suggests to me that we're seeing polarization that's happening at the party-level but not at the policy-level.

2. Polis is much more progressive than the accommodating Hickenlooper, and Democrats have control over basically the whole state government. It'll be interesting to see how progressive this administration is willing to go -- they already have out ambitious plans for guarnateed preschool and kindergarten within two years. I also wonder how likely this is to produce a backlash - partisan politics in CO is actually less nasty than most states but I wonder if being in the opposition and getting dunked on with actual progressive policies will push the Republicans further right.

Gardner will be a litmus test in a few years.  Weed, the major influx of young people (although cost of living is pushing many out of CO), and the major growth in Hispanics swung CO bigtime.

I really hate pushing the "weed turned Colorado blue" narrative. CO legalized weed because there was expansive growth that disproportionately brought in a coincidentally weed-friendly demographic. This created the energy for a ballot initiative for legalization for which there was already a demographic to support; it's not like the cowboys and oil workers mistakenly legalized weed and the state flipped overnight. Obama demolished in Colorado in 2008, Denver has been expanding for decades, and increased capacity for remote/teleworking meant that more people could live in ski/resort areas while maintaining work requiring high educational attainment.

[RI]

Polis's 8-point D victory in a D+7 year is not really that impressive for Colorado, honestly.

[Dr. Arch]

Polis's 8-point D victory in a D+7 year is not really that impressive for Colorado, honestly.

Against what number are you calculating Polis' results, national House vote?

[RI]

Polis's 8-point D victory in a D+7 year is not really that impressive for Colorado, honestly.

Against what number are you calculating Polis' results, national House vote?

That's probably the best barometer of the national mood, yes.

[Calthrina950]

RIP Cory Gardner

I agree. Gardner failed to win any of the Denver suburban counties in 2014 over Mark Udall. He was only able to eke out a narrow 2% victory by cleaning up in Douglas, El Paso, Weld, and Mesa Counties, and by coming within 2-4 points in Jefferson and Arapahoe. In 2020, he will almost certainly not even come that close in the latter two, and that alone will doom him for reelection.

[IceSpear]

Polis's 8-point D victory in a D+7 year is not really that impressive for Colorado, honestly.

Meh, Colorado is pretty polarized. Bennet barely outperformed Hillary when he was supposed to run far ahead of her. And the GOP could only win 1/4 marquee races in two waves, and even the one win was by an unexpectedly narrow margin.

[Calthrina950]

Polis's 8-point D victory in a D+7 year is not really that impressive for Colorado, honestly.

Meh, Colorado is pretty polarized. Bennet barely outperformed Hillary when he was supposed to run far ahead of her. And the GOP could only win 1/4 marquee races in two waves, and even the one win was by an unexpectedly narrow margin.

I was one of the ~30,000 voters who went for Bennet back in 2016 but not Clinton. But otherwise, you are right that Colorado is very polarized. As I noted in my introduction post, Polis won by double digits in all of the Denver suburban counties, and got over 70% in Boulder, Denver, Pitkin, and San Juan Counties. On the other end, Stapleton carried Douglas County, El Paso County, and Weld County by double digits, and got over 80% of the vote in Rio Blanco, Washington, Cheyenne, Kiowa, and Baca Counties, and over 70% in several others. The last time any statewide candidate won by double digits was in 2010, when John Hickenlooper won by 14% (and that was only because of Ton Tancredo's third-party candidacy). The last time any statewide candidate got over 60% of the vote here was in 2002, when Bill Owens won reelection in a landslide.  And the last time any candidate carried Colorado by double digits in a presidential election (and got over 60% here), was in 1984, when Ronald Reagan won the state in a landslide over Walter Mondale.

[Fuzzy Bear]

CO isn't a safe D state, but it's a lean D state, clearly.  Its social liberalism is leading the way to becoming a likely D state all around.

I view Cory Gardner's 2014 victory as something of an anomaly, and see him (along with Joni Ernst) as highly vulnerable in 2020. 

[America Needs R'hllor]

CO isn't a safe D state, but it's a lean D state, clearly.  Its social liberalism is leading the way to becoming a likely D state all around.

I view Cory Gardner's 2014 victory as something of an anomaly, and see him (along with Joni Ernst) as highly vulnerable in 2020. 

Why Ernst?

[Fuzzy Bear]

CO isn't a safe D state, but it's a lean D state, clearly.  Its social liberalism is leading the way to becoming a likely D state all around.

I view Cory Gardner's 2014 victory as something of an anomaly, and see him (along with Joni Ernst) as highly vulnerable in 2020. 

Why Ernst?

Iowa is a somewhat contrarian state, and I consider Iowa to be lean D for 2020.  I consider Trump's 2016 showing in Iowa as a fluke.

[KingSweden]

CO isn't a safe D state, but it's a lean D state, clearly.  Its social liberalism is leading the way to becoming a likely D state all around.

I view Cory Gardner's 2014 victory as something of an anomaly, and see him (along with Joni Ernst) as highly vulnerable in 2020. 

Why Ernst?

Iowa is a somewhat contrarian state, and I consider Iowa to be lean D for 2020.  I consider Trump's 2016 showing in Iowa as a fluke.

I would definitely agree that Iowa is more fertile ground for Democrats than Ohio, of the two big swingers from Obama to Trump

[Fuzzy Bear]

CO isn't a safe D state, but it's a lean D state, clearly.  Its social liberalism is leading the way to becoming a likely D state all around.

I view Cory Gardner's 2014 victory as something of an anomaly, and see him (along with Joni Ernst) as highly vulnerable in 2020. 

Why Ernst?

Iowa is a somewhat contrarian state, and I consider Iowa to be lean D for 2020.  I consider Trump's 2016 showing in Iowa as a fluke.

I would definitely agree that Iowa is more fertile ground for Democrats than Ohio, of the two big swingers from Obama to Trump

Ohio has always been lean R.  In the days of the "Permanent Democratic Congress", Ohio had a large number of GOP members of Congress.  In January, 1973, Ohio had 16 R and 7 D as their House delegation.  Even taking into account that Charles Whelan and John Stanton were very liberal Republicans (anti-war Javits types), this was balanced by having folks like Wayne Hays as being a rather conservative Democrat.

Iowa has always been more liberal in terms of foreign policy than Ohio, and it has always been contrarian.  The large victory for Trump was a contrarian result; Iowa was one of McGovern's better states, but it went for Ford over Carter in 1976, but was a Dukakis state in 1988. 

Colorado is the Weed State.  I don't expect it to trend R anytime soon.

[KingSweden]

CO isn't a safe D state, but it's a lean D state, clearly.  Its social liberalism is leading the way to becoming a likely D state all around.

I view Cory Gardner's 2014 victory as something of an anomaly, and see him (along with Joni Ernst) as highly vulnerable in 2020. 

Why Ernst?

Iowa is a somewhat contrarian state, and I consider Iowa to be lean D for 2020.  I consider Trump's 2016 showing in Iowa as a fluke.

I would definitely agree that Iowa is more fertile ground for Democrats than Ohio, of the two big swingers from Obama to Trump

Ohio has always been lean R.  In the days of the "Permanent Democratic Congress", Ohio had a large number of GOP members of Congress.  In January, 1973, Ohio had 16 R and 7 D as their House delegation.  Even taking into account that Charles Whelan and John Stanton were very liberal Republicans (anti-war Javits types), this was balanced by having folks like Wayne Hays as being a rather conservative Democrat.

Iowa has always been more liberal in terms of foreign policy than Ohio, and it has always been contrarian.  The large victory for Trump was a contrarian result; Iowa was one of McGovern's better states, but it went for Ford over Carter in 1976, but was a Dukakis state in 1988. 

Colorado is the Weed State.  I don't expect it to trend R anytime soon.

And more than that, R dominance of the Ohio Governor’s mansion goes back a long ways, too.

[Fuzzy Bear]

CO isn't a safe D state, but it's a lean D state, clearly.  Its social liberalism is leading the way to becoming a likely D state all around.

I view Cory Gardner's 2014 victory as something of an anomaly, and see him (along with Joni Ernst) as highly vulnerable in 2020. 

Why Ernst?

Iowa is a somewhat contrarian state, and I consider Iowa to be lean D for 2020.  I consider Trump's 2016 showing in Iowa as a fluke.

I would definitely agree that Iowa is more fertile ground for Democrats than Ohio, of the two big swingers from Obama to Trump

Ohio has always been lean R.  In the days of the "Permanent Democratic Congress", Ohio had a large number of GOP members of Congress.  In January, 1973, Ohio had 16 R and 7 D as their House delegation.  Even taking into account that Charles Whelan and John Stanton were very liberal Republicans (anti-war Javits types), this was balanced by having folks like Wayne Hays as being a rather conservative Democrat.

Iowa has always been more liberal in terms of foreign policy than Ohio, and it has always been contrarian.  The large victory for Trump was a contrarian result; Iowa was one of McGovern's better states, but it went for Ford over Carter in 1976, but was a Dukakis state in 1988. 

Colorado is the Weed State.  I don't expect it to trend R anytime soon.

And more than that, R dominance of the Ohio Governor’s mansion goes back a long ways, too.

Ohio's Democratic Governors have had far more problems being re-elected.

Ted Strickland lost in 2010.  Even worse, John Gilligan lost in 1974. 

A good part of this was the presence on the ballot of James Rhodes, who was from rural Jackson County, and was a two (2) term Ohio Governor twice.  He was mentioned as a possible running mate for Nixon in 1968 and was also mentioned as a candidate to be Commissioner of Major League Baseball.  He had popularity, and ran his last race in 1990, when he was 81.

Rhodes was a "Ray Bliss Republican".  Ray Bliss was the Ohio GOP chair who became GOP national chair after the Goldwater debacle in 1964.  Bliss was a guy who honestly didn't care what sort of candidate you were, so long as you would be a faithful Republican.  He presided over a rightward shift in the GOP, but he also didn't care about liberals like Lindsay, Rockefeller, Romney, and a number of Ohio Liberal Republicans running for office.  IIRC, he helped recruit Mac Mathias in Maryland to run for the Senate. 

Rhodes was a true moderate Republican; he adhered to party loyalty, but he never messed with unions.  He wasn't a Bricker Republican.  Rhodes was first elected in 1962 after the 1958 Democratic landslide which resulted in Democrat Mike DiSalle winning the Governorship after Republican Sen. John Bricker campaigned in support or a right-to-work amendment to Ohio's constitution.  Rhodes was not that stupid, and received much Democratic support.  His first two (2) victories were in GOP years, but he beat an incumbent Democrat in the 1974 Democratic off-year Landslide, which says something about him.

[KingSweden]

IIRC John Gilligan was a potential POTUS candidate for 1976 - interesting what if, had he hung on

[History505]

RIP Cory Gardner

I agree. Gardner failed to win any of the Denver suburban counties in 2014 over Mark Udall. He was only able to eke out a narrow 2% victory by cleaning up in Douglas, El Paso, Weld, and Mesa Counties, and by coming within 2-4 points in Jefferson and Arapahoe. In 2020, he will almost certainly not even come that close in the latter two, and that alone will doom him for reelection.

2020 not looking pretty to him.

[bagelman]

Very bitter that we're all celebrating our nations first gay governor - who just so happens to support bitcoin, a pyramid scheme "currency" that's gained a huge amount of value thanks to drug dealers selling heroin using it for under the table transitions and to launder money. Colorado now has a governor that has profited, even if indirectly, from people dying of heroin overdoses. Congrats!