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| |-+  2020 U.S. Presidential Election (Moderators: Likely Voter, TJ in Oregon, Chairman YE)
| | |-+  WaPo new Rankings 1-15 (search mode)
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Author Topic: WaPo new Rankings 1-15  (Read 1161 times)
RaphaelDLG
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« on: November 09, 2018, 04:52:59 pm »

I know I'm the board's resident Amy Klobuchar hack, but how on Earth is she behind McAuliffe and Bloomberg?

Because the list was written by a moron who writes for WaPo
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RaphaelDLG
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« Reply #1 on: November 09, 2018, 05:29:36 pm »

Warren is almost a perfect replica of Kennedy, not John, Ted. A Liberal Lion in the senate, but not really the best presidential material. The fact that she actually lost a county(seriously, what the f***) just proves it.

I would personally have Sanders, Biden, Harris, Brown(even though he also underpreformed) and Beto on my list.

Crazy how Warren lost the most Republican county in the state, Plymouth County, to a Republican who represents the 7th Plymouth district.
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RaphaelDLG
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« Reply #2 on: November 09, 2018, 09:55:25 pm »

This is for winning the Democratic primary, not the general election.

Tippy top contenders, in order
Joe Biden - failed over and over again running for President, too conservative, #MeToo, and a gaffe machine, but has enormous name recognition and goodwill with Obama voters and, importantly, Obamaworld connections + media loves him
Bernie Sanders - extreme charisma, name recognition, fundraising ability with individual donors, arguably the current leader of the Democratic party, fits the policy zeitgeist, would face the opposition of the establishment
Elizabeth Warren - only one besides the two above with near universal name recognition, underrated charisma and established ability to fundraise with individual donors, woman and progressive which doubly fits the current zeitgeist, Pocahontas thing is overrated, would have some establishment support but not from a lot of key donors

Should be taken very, very seriously
Beto O'Rourke - people love this guy and he's the exact type of charismatic inspiring personality that would win the Democratic nom.  Fairly progressive.  Documented ability to raise with small donors, but not alienating to the establishment.  Would be knocked for lack of experience and losing by some, but young dem voters wouldn't care.  Starting to get some buzz nationally.
Kamala Harris - won statewide in California several times, would have the support of the establishment without being conservative, young and energetic, think her charisma and personal appeal is a little overrated, but it's better than most of the people below her on this list.  Not as much name rec as the people above her.  Crucially, California is an early state.

Unlikely to win
Cory Booker - charismatic, but also a goofy neoliberal fortune cookie, has fundraising potential, a profile
Sherrod Brown - I don't see him having a ton of establishment support or winning a Democratic primary, but he has his own undeniable brand of charisma
Kirsten Gillibrand - kind of phony/calculating, but not boring, middle of the road politically, large donor fundraising ability, political skills, persona non grata with Clintons
Amy Klobuchar - boring, not the type of person who wins Dem primaries, but has some political skills
Deval Patrick - too neoliberal, but could get shoved down our throats by Obamaworld, has large donor fundraising potential, charisma

It's not inconceivable that they could win, but it's absurdly unlikely, in alphabetical order
Hillary Clinton - there is some bizarre, extremely unlikely scenario where enough of her loyalists vote for her in a crowded field with no clear frontrunner and she gets destroyed again in the general
Andrew Cuomo - a crooked right wing a-hole that perennially faces primary challenges, but has large donors and has won statewide in new York, a famous name
Eric Garcetti - handsome mayor in a crowded field
Tulsi Gabbard - energetic, has appeal among internet progressives, but her handful of extreme right-wing positions/record would get her into trouble
Joe Kennedy III - charismatic, a famous name, but WAY too young
Jeff Merkley - would be crowded out by fellow progressives
Tom Steyer - he doesn't have the same baggage/right-wing ideology that Bloomberg and Schultz have, and could presumably buy his way to some success, but he's a billionaire with no political skills

Literally 0% chance of winning the nomination:
Michael Avenatti - this isn't the type of celebrity nonpolitician that could win with Democratic primary voters.  No political connections for fundraising
Michael Bloomberg - too many skeletons, too conservative
Julian Castro - total empty suit in a crowded field
John Delaney - too moderate, too uncharismatic, nobody knows who the hell he is, no fundraising potential
John Hickenlooper - right-wing/out of touch with zeitgeist, crooked, took his mom to a porn theater
Eric Holder - could gain traction in Obamaworld but lacks political skills
Terry McCauliffe - fundraising conservative slimeball
Martin O'Malley - too moderate, already a laughingstock, the wire, sounds like a fortune cookie
Howard Schultz - no political skills, too many skeletons, too conservative

Would have a great chance if they ran but thankfully won't run:  Oprah Winfrey, Michelle Obama
« Last Edit: November 09, 2018, 10:13:05 pm by RaphaelDLG »Logged
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