LabourJersey
Sr. Member
Posts: 3,194
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« on: November 10, 2018, 03:00:19 PM » |
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This is for winning the Democratic primary, not the general election.
Tippy top contenders, in order Joe Biden - failed over and over again running for President, too conservative, #MeToo, and a gaffe machine, but has enormous name recognition and goodwill with Obama voters and, importantly, Obamaworld connections + media loves him Bernie Sanders - extreme charisma, name recognition, fundraising ability with individual donors, arguably the current leader of the Democratic party, fits the policy zeitgeist, would face the opposition of the establishment Elizabeth Warren - only one besides the two above with near universal name recognition, underrated charisma and established ability to fundraise with individual donors, woman and progressive which doubly fits the current zeitgeist, Pocahontas thing is overrated, would have some establishment support but not from a lot of key donors
Should be taken very, very seriously Beto O'Rourke - people love this guy and he's the exact type of charismatic inspiring personality that would win the Democratic nom. Fairly progressive. Documented ability to raise with small donors, but not alienating to the establishment. Would be knocked for lack of experience and losing by some, but young dem voters wouldn't care. Starting to get some buzz nationally. Kamala Harris - won statewide in California several times, would have the support of the establishment without being conservative, young and energetic, think her charisma and personal appeal is a little overrated, but it's better than most of the people below her on this list. Not as much name rec as the people above her. Crucially, California is an early state.
Unlikely to win Cory Booker - charismatic, but also a goofy neoliberal fortune cookie, has fundraising potential, a profile Sherrod Brown - I don't see him having a ton of establishment support or winning a Democratic primary, but he has his own undeniable brand of charisma Kirsten Gillibrand - kind of phony/calculating, but not boring, middle of the road politically, large donor fundraising ability, political skills, persona non grata with Clintons Amy Klobuchar - boring, not the type of person who wins Dem primaries, but has some political skills Deval Patrick - too neoliberal, but could get shoved down our throats by Obamaworld, has large donor fundraising potential, charisma
It's not inconceivable that they could win, but it's absurdly unlikely, in alphabetical order Hillary Clinton - there is some bizarre, extremely unlikely scenario where enough of her loyalists vote for her in a crowded field with no clear frontrunner and she gets destroyed again in the general Andrew Cuomo - a crooked right wing a-hole that perennially faces primary challenges, but has large donors and has won statewide in new York, a famous name Eric Garcetti - handsome mayor in a crowded field Tulsi Gabbard - energetic, has appeal among internet progressives, but her handful of extreme right-wing positions/record would get her into trouble Joe Kennedy III - charismatic, a famous name, but WAY too young Jeff Merkley - would be crowded out by fellow progressives Tom Steyer - he doesn't have the same baggage/right-wing ideology that Bloomberg and Schultz have, and could presumably buy his way to some success, but he's a billionaire with no political skills
Literally 0% chance of winning the nomination: Michael Avenatti - this isn't the type of celebrity nonpolitician that could win with Democratic primary voters. No political connections for fundraising Michael Bloomberg - too many skeletons, too conservative Julian Castro - total empty suit in a crowded field John Delaney - too moderate, too uncharismatic, nobody knows who the hell he is, no fundraising potential John Hickenlooper - right-wing/out of touch with zeitgeist, crooked, took his mom to a porn theater Eric Holder - could gain traction in Obamaworld but lacks political skills Terry McCauliffe - fundraising conservative slimeball Martin O'Malley - too moderate, already a laughingstock, the wire, sounds like a fortune cookie Howard Schultz - no political skills, too many skeletons, too conservative
Would have a great chance if they ran but thankfully won't run: Oprah Winfrey, Michelle Obama
Better analysis than the Washington Post, honestly.
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