Senate elections by congressional district

[TheSaint250]

Let's use this thread to share the results of Senate elections by looking at each congressional district in those states.

[Bidenworth2020]

i could probably tell you based of guesses, unless you want the margins.

[lfromnj]

Beto so far has been all but confirmed to win atleast 15 congresional districts. Im gonna laugh if he won 18 or 19 while losing by 3 points. 

[Politician]

Manchin won all 3 in WV, despite only winning by 3 points.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Amy Klobuchar won 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, and 8 easily according to Atlas, and she appears to have won 6 and 7 both by a few hundred votes.

[Tekken_Guy]

Here are some splits that I think happened:
Tester-Gianforte
Gillibrand may have won every house seat in NY
Casey-Perry
Romney almost certainly won Love’s seat.
Manchin-Mooney
Manchin-Miller
Baldwin might have won every seat except for Sensenbrenner’s.

[lfromnj]

Hugin easily won NJ-2 and NJ-3 and probably won NJ-5 and 7 and 11. That may help explain Van Drew’s weak numbers

Nah the only van drew did bad is coz the rural hicks in Cape May loved grossman's comments.
Sherril did better against a much better funded challenger in a district with an PVI of R+3 instead of +1.

[Gass3268]

Here are some splits that I think happened:
Tester-Gianforte
Gillibrand may have won every house seat in NY
Casey-Perry
Romney almost certainly won Love’s seat.
Manchin-Mooney
Manchin-Miller
Baldwin might have won every seat except for Sensenbrenner’s.

Looking at the map I would be shocked if Baldwin won more than 2, 3, 4 and maybe 1.

[pops]

Minnesota:

CD1

Klobuchar: 53.9%
Newberger: 42.3%

Smith: 46.3%
Housley: 48.6%

CD2

Klobuchar: 58.9%
Newberger: 37.6%

Smith: 50.5%
Housley: 44.9%

CD3

Klobuchar: 62.5%
Newberger: 34.8%

Smith: 54.1%
Housley: 42.2%

CD4

Klobuchar: 71.1%
Newberger: 25.2%

Smith: 64.3%
Housley: 30.7%

CD5

Klobuchar: 81.2%
Newberger: 14.9%

Smith: 77.0%
Housley: 18.3%

CD6

Klobuchar: 48.3%
Newberger: 48.2%

Smith: 39.8%
Housley: 55.2%

CD7

Klobuchar: 48.4%
Newberger: 48.3%

Smith: 40.2%
Housley: 55.2%

CD8

Klobuchar: 53.7%
Newberger: 42.8%

Smith: 46.8%
Housley: 48.3%

[jamestroll]

MO-2 looked pretty close in the Senate race but I think Hawley won it by the skin of his teeth (Kander lost it by 300 votes and he did a little better than McCaskill in St. Charles and St. Louis it looks like)

Can we all admit now that in an open seat or even a stronger Democratic candidate that this would have been a Democratic pick up?

[lfromnj]

The iron range is doing its slow march towards WV coal mines.
Its gone from the democrats. Even klobuchar could barely win the district by 10 in a wave year. Its over say bye to another dem stronghold.

[lfromnj]

The iron range is doing its slow march towards WV coal mines.
Its gone from the democrats. Even klobuchar could barely win the district by 10 in a wave year. Its over say bye to another dem stronghold.

And MN-1 and 7. That Smith couldn’t win any of these three seats is a pretty sad indicator that Minnesota is on it’s way to join it’s fellow Mississippi River states march to rural blood red status. Minnesota will be a swing state within the decade if it isn’t already

I mean mn7th was expected to be gone except now it looks like Peterson goes down with it. However the twin city suburbs might just be enough to counter act the red trend in outstate. Remember Minnesota has the whitest county Hillary clinton won.

[Calthrina950]

Minnesota:

CD1

Klobuchar: 53.9%
Newberger: 42.3%

Smith: 46.3%
Housley: 48.6%

CD2

Klobuchar: 58.9%
Newberger: 37.6%

Smith: 50.5%
Housley: 44.9%

CD3

Klobuchar: 62.5%
Newberger: 34.8%

Smith: 54.1%
Housley: 42.2%

CD4

Klobuchar: 71.1%
Newberger: 25.2%

Smith: 64.3%
Housley: 30.7%

CD5

Klobuchar: 81.2%
Newberger: 14.9%

Smith: 77.0%
Housley: 18.3%

CD6

Klobuchar: 48.3%
Newberger: 48.2%

Smith: 39.8%
Housley: 55.2%

CD7

Klobuchar: 48.4%
Newberger: 48.3%

Smith: 40.2%
Housley: 55.2%

CD8

Klobuchar: 53.7%
Newberger: 42.8%

Smith: 46.8%
Housley: 48.3%

Klobuchar only barely won CD-6 and CD-7, and by less than a fraction of a percentage point each. Polarization has really become intense.

[Oryxslayer]

The iron range is doing its slow march towards WV coal mines.
Its gone from the democrats. Even klobuchar could barely win the district by 10 in a wave year. Its over say bye to another dem stronghold.

Yeah I think it's obvious that if the Dems want to win the 8th, it has to be drawn into the twin cities and lose some of the redder turf in 2020. The trifecta is coming...

[Tekken_Guy]

The iron range is doing its slow march towards WV coal mines.
Its gone from the democrats. Even klobuchar could barely win the district by 10 in a wave year. Its over say bye to another dem stronghold.

And MN-1 and 7. That Smith couldn’t win any of these three seats is a pretty sad indicator that Minnesota is on it’s way to join it’s fellow Mississippi River states march to rural blood red status. Minnesota will be a swing state within the decade if it isn’t already

Nope. It has a huge metro area to offset that trend.

[lfromnj]

The iron range is doing its slow march towards WV coal mines.
Its gone from the democrats. Even klobuchar could barely win the district by 10 in a wave year. Its over say bye to another dem stronghold.

Yeah I think it's obvious that if the Dems want to win the 8th, it has to be drawn into the twin cities and lose some of the redder turf in 2020. The trifecta is coming...

Anybody got a 5-2 map of Minnesota?
4 twin cities core and then 8th + Emmers and the 1st. Petersons would be mixed in.. Thats probably what dems would have done considering Feehan lost so no point in trying for the 1st which is actually republican in ancestry.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

I don't have exact numbers, but I would be stunned if there were any splits in Tennessee from the expected partisanship of the districts.

[Skill and Chance]

The iron range is doing its slow march towards WV coal mines.
Its gone from the democrats. Even klobuchar could barely win the district by 10 in a wave year. Its over say bye to another dem stronghold.

And MN-1 and 7. That Smith couldn’t win any of these three seats is a pretty sad indicator that Minnesota is on it’s way to join it’s fellow Mississippi River states march to rural blood red status. Minnesota will be a swing state within the decade if it isn’t already

This.  MSP is large enough and swinging hard enough the other way that it's not at all obvious which way the long term trend will go in MN.  It's as if Blue Dog Dems had held on downballot in rural Georgia or Texas until 2016 and then got wiped out under Trump, but with the same big shift toward Dems in the big metros. 

Nope. It has a huge metro area to offset that trend.

[lfromnj]

I don't have exact numbers, but I would be stunned if there were any splits in Tennessee from the expected partisanship of the districts.

It looks like Bredesen did  ok in East TN which is impressive.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

I don't have exact numbers, but I would be stunned if there were any splits in Tennessee from the expected partisanship of the districts.

It looks like Bredesen did  ok in East TN which is impressive.

East Tennessee has the highest concentration of moderate Republicans in the state and virtually all moderate Republican statewide candidates come from there.  Middle and West Tennessee Republicans are far more conservative as a whole.

[lfromnj]

I don't have exact numbers, but I would be stunned if there were any splits in Tennessee from the expected partisanship of the districts.

It looks like Bredesen did  ok in East TN which is impressive.

East Tennessee has the highest concentration of moderate Republicans in the state and virtually all moderate Republican statewide candidates come from there.  Middle and West Tennessee Republicans are far more conservative as a whole.

Isn't ET the most republican part of TN?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The iron range is doing its slow march towards WV coal mines.
Its gone from the democrats. Even klobuchar could barely win the district by 10 in a wave year. Its over say bye to another dem stronghold.

Wrong. The Iron Range swung back to the Democrats and all won there, including Ellison. The exurban part of the district and rural areas are what beat the DFL there.

[lfromnj]

The iron range is doing its slow march towards WV coal mines.
Its gone from the democrats. Even klobuchar could barely win the district by 10 in a wave year. Its over say bye to another dem stronghold.

Wrong. The Iron Range swung back to the Democrara, and all won there, including Ellison. The exurban part of the district and rural areas are what beat the DFL there.

Of course it swung back
Even the Mahoning valley swung back but Klobuchar did 10 percent worse and Smith did worse than Franken in 2014. Its clear that the Iron range is gonna slowly march its way to the GOP.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

I don't have exact numbers, but I would be stunned if there were any splits in Tennessee from the expected partisanship of the districts.

It looks like Bredesen did  ok in East TN which is impressive.

East Tennessee has the highest concentration of moderate Republicans in the state and virtually all moderate Republican statewide candidates come from there.  Middle and West Tennessee Republicans are far more conservative as a whole.

Isn't ET the most republican part of TN?

Yes, but it's more due to the lack of a big enough city or a large minority population for a significant Democratic base.  A lot of the Republicans coming from there are surprisingly moderate.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

I saw somewhere a map of the Virginia Senate results by congressional district by now I can't relocate it.  Does anyone have it and can post it again?