Senate elections by congressional district
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Author Topic: Senate elections by congressional district  (Read 14242 times)
lfromnj
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« Reply #25 on: November 12, 2018, 02:38:37 PM »

Im waiting for Texas did anyone online do it.
AFAIK texas 3rd or 2nd and the 24th was already done. I really think beto carried a majority of districts which would probably mean its one of the worst gerrymanders of this decade next to Nj 2nd.
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TheSaint250
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« Reply #26 on: November 12, 2018, 08:02:11 PM »

I saw somewhere a map of the Virginia Senate results by congressional district by now I can't relocate it.  Does anyone have it and can post it again?

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lfromnj
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« Reply #27 on: November 12, 2018, 08:08:29 PM »

I saw somewhere a map of the Virginia Senate results by congressional district by now I can't relocate it.  Does anyone have it and can post it again?


In all honestly not a bad gerrymander to still get 4 seats when you lose 57 41.
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Heisenberg
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« Reply #28 on: November 12, 2018, 09:25:18 PM »

I saw somewhere a map of the Virginia Senate results by congressional district by now I can't relocate it.  Does anyone have it and can post it again?


In all honestly not a bad gerrymander to still get 4 seats when you lose 57 41.
Especially considering how VA-09 is basically a natural Republican vote sink.
Anyway, the future of VA-01 and VA-05 look concerning, as a Republican.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #29 on: November 12, 2018, 09:51:22 PM »

I saw somewhere a map of the Virginia Senate results by congressional district by now I can't relocate it.  Does anyone have it and can post it again?


In all honestly not a bad gerrymander to still get 4 seats when you lose 57 41.
Especially considering how VA-09 is basically a natural Republican vote sink.
Anyway, the future of VA-01 and VA-05 look concerning, as a Republican.

Rob Wittman is a goner in redistricting if Dems even draw a modestly favorable map. 4 NOVA-based seats is looking more and more likely.

VA-7 will probably be shored up with Albemarle/Charlottesville. I imagine there will be 3 R seats: Southwest, Shenandoah Valley and from Chesapeake Bay to Harrisonville

Probably 8-3 would be the safest to go for and it helps the democrats they get all the self packed racist hicks in the South west corner.
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TheSaint250
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« Reply #30 on: November 15, 2018, 09:41:22 PM »

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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #31 on: November 15, 2018, 10:39:31 PM »

Stewart won VA-5? Huh. I guess it still is a gerrymander after all.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #32 on: November 15, 2018, 10:48:32 PM »

Stewart won VA-5? Huh. I guess it still is a gerrymander after all.

The vast majority of the district outside Charlottesville/Albemarle County is filled with Racist VA Hicks. It's why I was always skeptical of Cockburn's chances. If KKKorey was winning it, there's no way Cockburn was.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #33 on: November 15, 2018, 11:11:21 PM »

Im just waiting for a Texas map. Im gonna laugh at the failmander by the GOP.
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ltomlinson31
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« Reply #34 on: November 17, 2018, 02:18:34 PM »

Despite only carrying the Travis County portion of the district, Beto narrowly carried TX-10:



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lfromnj
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« Reply #35 on: November 17, 2018, 02:25:50 PM »
« Edited: November 17, 2018, 02:36:00 PM by lfromnj »

Despite only carrying the Travis County portion of the district, Beto narrowly carried TX-10:





LOL
Almost a complete failmander by the TExas GOP. So he carried Carters district too if I had to guess. LMAO the Austinmander failed. Turns out those communists finally came out in full force.

So anyway current list that were Carried by Beto.
11 Safe D districts held by democrats in 2016
Almost certainly won the 3 districts won by Clinton (Hiurds,Culberson, Sessions) Possible Sessions was even by Double Digits which is impressive from a +20 Romney carry)
He won the 24th(Marchants) by 3 points
He won the 10th by a point.
So far thats 16/38 districts. Im now pretty confident he carried 18 or even 19 districts which means the Texas GOP HAS TO REDISTRICT BEFORE 2020. Make Sessions Culbersons Safe D margin wise as they are trending left quickly and also find out one person who retires in the Austin Area and cede a 2nd Austin district.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #36 on: November 17, 2018, 03:11:34 PM »

I ran the numbers for TX-31 a few days ago, and it looks like Cruz won it by like a point. Hegar largely kept up with O'Rourke in both counties (she also narrowly won Williamson County herself, which is damn impressive)

Ah IC. Seems like Hegar was the strongest candidate if she could hold up with Beto.  I say democrats could nominate her.
So anyway atleast 16 districts by Beto. Democrats really screwed up their oppurtunities in Texas.  Hurd and Marchant would have been Lean D with better support(actually Hurd would have been Likely D and probably Safe D if the democrats didn't abandon GOJ)
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lfromnj
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« Reply #37 on: November 17, 2018, 07:48:45 PM »
« Edited: November 17, 2018, 07:52:18 PM by lfromnj »



While Allred beat Sessions by 5 percent(former NRCC head another one bites the dust)
Beto won the district by 9. I thought it would be by double digits as Clinton won the district by 3 it was pretty close and not a bad performance. For Now I am gonna keep this district at Likely D for 2020 although I could see it going to Safe.
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #38 on: November 17, 2018, 07:58:46 PM »

Despite only carrying the Travis County portion of the district, Beto narrowly carried TX-10:





LOL
Almost a complete failmander by the TExas GOP. So he carried Carters district too if I had to guess. LMAO the Austinmander failed. Turns out those communists finally came out in full force.

So anyway current list that were Carried by Beto.
11 Safe D districts held by democrats in 2016
Almost certainly won the 3 districts won by Clinton (Hiurds,Culberson, Sessions) Possible Sessions was even by Double Digits which is impressive from a +20 Romney carry)
He won the 24th(Marchants) by 3 points
He won the 10th by a point.
So far thats 16/38 districts. Im now pretty confident he carried 18 or even 19 districts which means the Texas GOP HAS TO REDISTRICT BEFORE 2020. Make Sessions Culbersons Safe D margin wise as they are trending left quickly and also find out one person who retires in the Austin Area and cede a 2nd Austin district.

It amazes me how O'Rourke managed to win TX-10 by carrying just one portion of it (Travis County). It also goes to tell you the power of concentrated Democratic votes.
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RussFeingoldWasRobbed
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« Reply #39 on: November 18, 2018, 08:19:21 PM »

Hurd, Marchant and McCaul will lose in 2020. Hear me out
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #40 on: November 18, 2018, 08:19:56 PM »

Hurd, Marchant and McCaul will lose in 2020. Hear me out

Does anyone know exactly how many districts O'Rourke carried?
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lfromnj
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« Reply #41 on: November 18, 2018, 08:29:37 PM »
« Edited: November 18, 2018, 08:35:38 PM by lfromnj »

Hurd, Marchant and McCaul will lose in 2020. Hear me out

Does anyone know exactly how many districts O'Rourke carried?

So we can assume that He carried the 11 previously D held districts. Those are all titanium D. he probably carried all of them by 25 except maybe the Fajitta strip districts
Considering hurd won by a point we can assume that Beto carried his district too
Thats 12
He obviously carried the other 2 clinton districts the 32nd and the 7th. The 32nd was by 9. If i had to guess the 7th was by 6 as the swing in Harris wasn't that great for the urban areas.
According to coleman Beto carried Marchants district by 4.
beto also carried the 10th or Mccauls district by 1 point.
So far we have 16. I think 17-18 is a good estimate .
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ltomlinson31
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« Reply #42 on: November 20, 2018, 09:18:57 AM »



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TheSaint250
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« Reply #43 on: November 20, 2018, 10:24:20 AM »



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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #44 on: November 20, 2018, 12:13:23 PM »

The new Speaker of the Texas House is set to be elected with a giant supermajority coalition including a whole bunch of Dems, so early redistricting probably won't be a concern there.  I would worry a lot more about Georgia since they already did some of it this decade.
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« Reply #45 on: November 20, 2018, 12:35:47 PM »

Nelson lost his Senate seat because he couldn't match Hillary's margin in FL-27.
Weak Candidate Donna Shalala dragged him down there enough for him and Gillum to lose.
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #46 on: November 20, 2018, 01:24:22 PM »

Nelson lost his Senate seat because he couldn't match Hillary's margin in FL-27.

I don't understand how someone could vote for Hillary and not Nelson.
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Rookie Yinzer
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« Reply #47 on: November 20, 2018, 02:24:44 PM »

Those Beto numbers are insane. I really hope he moves forward with a national campaign.
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Tekken_Guy
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« Reply #48 on: November 20, 2018, 05:28:24 PM »

Nelson lost his Senate seat because he couldn't match Hillary's margin in FL-27.

I don't understand how someone could vote for Hillary and not Nelson.

More like somebody who could vote for Scott but not Trump.
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #49 on: November 20, 2018, 05:41:55 PM »

Nelson lost his Senate seat because he couldn't match Hillary's margin in FL-27.

I don't understand how someone could vote for Hillary and not Nelson.

More like somebody who could vote for Scott but not Trump.

Yeah that too.
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