2004 without Iraq

[darklordoftech]

Would Democrats nominate someone different without Iraq?

[TheElectoralBoobyPrize]

I think it would still be Kerry, but I do think there would've been a different Democratic nominee had 9/11 not happened.

[dw93]

Nope. Kerry is still the nominee and if it's not him it would be Wesley Clark. Bush wins by a bigger margin than OTL.

[UWS]

President George W. Bush : 321 electoral votes
Senator John Kerry : 217 electoral votes

[Lord Admirale]

I actually think Bush may lose. He received a popularity bump when Iraq started.

[Slow Learner]

I really don't see Kerry winning the nomination if foreign policy isn't in the spotlight as much. Edwards or Gephardt might have a chance.

[MillennialModerate]

Iraq led to a lot of divisiveness.

The economy was decent enough and Bush’s handling of 9/11 is fresh in everyone’s mind with no Iraq to spoil the pot. So I think Bush wins pretty easily - winning some states GOP hadn’t won since the 80’s

[NewYorkExpress]

Democrats have a different nominee, probably Lieberman, but it's moot as Bush wins, and might win in a landslide if Bin Laden is caught by this point.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

A Democratic victory with Gephardt as the nominee

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

I actually think Bush may lose. He received a popularity bump when Iraq started.

Didn't Bush's popularity start dropping because of the debate over the war?

[Lechasseur]

Iraq led to a lot of divisiveness.

The economy was decent enough and Bush’s handling of 9/11 is fresh in everyone’s mind with no Iraq to spoil the pot. So I think Bush wins pretty easily - winning some states GOP hadn’t won since the 80’s

I agree with this

[darklordoftech]

I wonder what the main issue would be without Iraq.

[UWS]

I wonder what the main issue would be without Iraq.

I think it would have still been the War on Terror due to how the American people appreciated the way Bush handled the War on a Terror and due to the military intervention in Afghanistan. Bush would still have been able to slam Kerry on his vote record since Kerry opposed the Gulf War, fought to shut down military programs like the B-2 bomber program and the F-14Dthat helped winning the Cold War and were among the main military arsenals used by the U.S. against Al Qaida and the Taliban in Afghanistan.

[darklordoftech]

I wonder what the main issue would be without Iraq.

I think it would have still been the War on Terror due to how the American people appreciated the way Bush handled the War on a Terror and due to the military intervention in Afghanistan. Bush would still have been able to slam Kerry on his vote record since Kerry opposed the Gulf War, fought to shut down military programs like the B-2 bomber program and the F-14Dthat helped winning the Cold War and were among the main military arsenals used by the U.S. against Al Qaida and the Taliban in Afghanistan.

I agree with this (if anything, Bush's case for being an effective warrior on terror would be stronger without Iraq). I wonder what issue(s) the Democratic nominee would run on.

[darklordoftech]

Would Lieberman have done better in the Democratic primaries without Iraq alienating Democrats?

[brucejoel99]

No Iraq means Dean could've potentially had a chance at winning the primary, since war experience wouldn't have seemed so important.

[HisGrace]

Without Iraq Bush would have had a shot at a 40ish state landslide comparable to his Dad's in 88 assuming there was smooth sailing after 9/11.

[Agonized-Statism]

President George Bush (R-TX) / Vice President Dick Cheney (R-WY) ✔
Senator John Kerry (D-MA) / Senator John Edwards (D-NC)

Kerry is still nominated amid the post-9/11 nationalistic pandemonium, and Iraq is still a major point of debate with invasion still on the agenda, so it's kind of a wash. Bush's approvals are probably a few points better though, and I do have to wonder if Bin Laden could have been captured earlier with fewer resources diverted to Iraq.

[UWS]

President George Bush (R-TX) / Vice President Dick Cheney (R-WY) ✔
Senator John Kerry (D-MA) / Senator John Edwards (D-NC)

Kerry is still nominated amid the post-9/11 nationalistic pandemonium, and Iraq is still a major point of debate with invasion still on the agenda, so it's kind of a wash. Bush's approvals are probably a few points better though, and I do have to wonder if Bin Laden could have been captured earlier with fewer resources diverted to Iraq.

With that map, Dubya wins by about 4 or 4.5 percentage points

[TheElectoralBoobyPrize]

I actually think Bush may lose. He received a popularity bump when Iraq started.

I'm of the opinion that while no Iraq War is a net benefit to Bush, I don't think it's necessarily as lopsided as some people think. Probably improves his margin just a little bit.

[dw93]

Iraq led to a lot of divisiveness.

The economy was decent enough and Bush’s handling of 9/11 is fresh in everyone’s mind with no Iraq to spoil the pot. So I think Bush wins pretty easily - winning some states GOP hadn’t won since the 80’s

This, give or take PA.