Will the Supreme Court strike down (some) independent redistricting commissions?

[Beet]

Yes, and no. 

The objection in Arizona was not to redistricting commissions.  It was that the commission would have had to be established by the legislature, not by referendum. I think that could go, but a commissioned established by the legislature, even one whose members are chosen directly by the electorate, would remain.

That would be the equivalent of striking them down, since a gerrymandered legislature would never accept a redistricting commission against its own interests.

[Beet]

Yes, and no. 

The objection in Arizona was not to redistricting commissions.  It was that the commission would have had to be established by the legislature, not by referendum. I think that could go, but a commissioned established by the legislature, even one whose members are chosen directly by the electorate, would remain.

That would be the equivalent of striking them down, since a gerrymandered legislature would never accept a redistricting commission against its own interests.

No, if the electorate makes redistricting the prime issue in state elections.  The voters can vote out anyone opposing a redistricting commission. Now, if the voters decide they don't want a commission, they can vote for candidates that oppose it. 

The point is that redistricting itself has prevented the voting majority from asserting its will over the very legislature that approves that same redistricting. Round and round in a circle you go. A permanent minority is entrenched in power.