A factor contributing to McCaskill's 6 point defeat..
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  A factor contributing to McCaskill's 6 point defeat..
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Author Topic: A factor contributing to McCaskill's 6 point defeat..  (Read 2055 times)
crazy jimmie
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« on: November 12, 2018, 05:03:01 AM »

cross posted from AAD

In some respects Claire McCaskill lost her 2018 re-election bid with her 2006 election strategy by not changing strategies as the world has shift.

Look at the Auditor's contest versus the US Senate contest. In most of the hick counties in Southern Missouri Galloway barely outperformed McCaskill. She won due to winning the urban areas and a few areas around her base in Boone County.

McCaskill spent way to much time in outstate Missouri trying to pander and win unwinnable votes. If she was going to win statewide all the voters she obtained in outstate Missouri she would have obtained anyway. Considering how close the results in St. Charles County were close to the state wide vote it is clear that McCaskill should have focused on urban and suburban areas primarily.

As of right now she has barely lost Platte County and only won barely in Clay County. The lack of a more intense campaign in St. Louis suburbs, Kansas City suburbs and Greene County likely stopped Democrats from picking up seats locally from state legislature to county offices. While a bid to win Jefferson County was miserable and Democrats were blown the  out in House District 118 which was vacated from Democrat Ben Harris.

We also lose a potential stunner upset in MO-02 because lack of focus in the urban areas of the state and more credible Democratic candidates not being willing to take on Ann Wagner. Thank you Cort VanOstran for doing what others were scared to do. Take on Ann Wagner.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #1 on: November 12, 2018, 05:11:28 AM »

Just curious but how did you fare with your astrology predictions? I remember you were pessimistic about McCaskill from the beginning.

BTW, I agree with you that it is a waste of time for Democrats to go after the hillbilly vote, these people just don't listen anymore.
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crazy jimmie
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« Reply #2 on: November 12, 2018, 05:40:01 AM »

Just curious but how did you fare with your astrology predictions? I remember you were pessimistic about McCaskill from the beginning.

BTW, I agree with you that it is a waste of time for Democrats to go after the hillbilly vote, these people just don't listen anymore.

Pretty good. Not having birth times was a huge handicap and  I botched GA-Gov.

But overall I think my micro-targetting on counties and races is what caused me to have my best cycle of predictions yet rather than astrology.

On the topic:

Missouri Democrats need to focus and tool in Greene County and very much micro target the Jackson County Suburbs plus Platte and Clay counties. They can locally make St. Charles County a swing county and retool in Jefferson. They will likely not win Jefferson in a statewide race but cutting down the margin there important.

We now have an appointed Lt. Governor and soon to be appointed Attorney General in Missouri. Will will botch those potential opportunities or will we focus on urban and suburban areas of the state and pull one or two upsets statewide in 2020? We shall see.
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politicallefty
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« Reply #3 on: November 12, 2018, 05:50:55 AM »

I don’t know what the path is for a Democrat to win statewide in Missouri is now, if one even exists now apart from random lower races. I thought McCaskill was going to pull it out in the end.

I’m not surprised that MO-02 was that close. That was one of my predicted sleeper races (though tbf, I was wrong about CO-03). I’d say with that margin, it was definitely winnable. Democrats need to make sure that district is protected post-Census.
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crazy jimmie
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« Reply #4 on: November 12, 2018, 05:53:40 AM »

I don’t know what the path is for a Democrat to win statewide in Missouri is now, if one even exists now apart from random lower races. I thought McCaskill was going to pull it out in the end.



Just do exactly as I just suggested and it is possible to win statewide in Missouri. Though obviously extremely difficult.
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OneJ
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« Reply #5 on: November 12, 2018, 07:25:47 AM »

I was surprised that MO-02 came as close as it did. I remember everyone talking about Wagner being in danger, but that pretty much stopped after Wagner was polling well.
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Pollster
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« Reply #6 on: November 12, 2018, 01:11:31 PM »

Galloway's win and VanOstran's near win are evidence that the suburbs are the way forward for Democrats. McCaskill absolutely should have pursued the same strategy.
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Xing
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« Reply #7 on: November 12, 2018, 01:51:07 PM »

While I think that Democrats probably still have a chance of winning a gubernatorial race here in the near future, federal races (statewide) are out of reach for them.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #8 on: November 12, 2018, 02:00:21 PM »

While I think that Democrats probably still have a chance of winning a gubernatorial race here in the near future, federal races (statewide) are out of reach for them.

I don't know. Kander would have probably won in 2016 if not for Comey and the St. Louis, Kansas City suburbs have shown some movement to the Democrats. Maybe a Beto-like candidate can win in a good year.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #9 on: November 12, 2018, 05:35:04 PM »

Missouri people: What the hell happened to Jefferson County? It went from D+2 in 2008 to R+35 (!) in 2016! And it's not even rural, it's sububan! And even Galloway lost it! Was it Ferguson? I'm sure that had a lot to do with it, but there must be more to the story than that.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #10 on: November 12, 2018, 05:42:54 PM »

Missouri people: What the hell happened to Jefferson County? It went from D+2 in 2008 to R+35 (!) in 2016! And it's not even rural, it's sububan! And even Galloway lost it! Was it Ferguson? I'm sure that had a lot to do with it, but there must be more to the story than that.

It’s basically the McDowell County of Missouri. No real amount of college educated people and it’s the meth capital of Missouri

A sububan version of McDowell County? That's pretty interesting.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #11 on: November 12, 2018, 05:45:49 PM »

I do think Kander does show a path to these states it probably is gone. It is interesting how Kander did better than Mcaskill despite Mcaskill being an incumbent in a MUCH more D friendly year. Kander didn't give a  about the rural hicks and focused mostly on Kansas city margins and the few rural hicks still voted for him. The same rural hicks voted for Mcaskill but she couldn't get anymore voters.
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Tekken_Guy
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« Reply #12 on: November 12, 2018, 08:08:44 PM »

McCaskill and Donnelly made the same mistakes: Both tried so hard to appeal to rural voters that just will never vote for them. They should have instead focused on maximizing turnout in big cities and college towns, and trying to flip traditionally GOP voters in the well-educated suburbs of the big cities. McCaskill narrowly won Wagner’s district even as Trump easily beat Clinton there in 2016. Had she followed that strategy and won, she might have pulled VanOstran across the finish line with her.
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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #13 on: November 13, 2018, 07:49:40 PM »

My thoughts exactly. McCaskill focused too much on winning over rural voters and not enough on juicing up urban and suburban turnout.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #14 on: November 13, 2018, 07:56:10 PM »

MO and IN are probably R states from now on.
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JGibson
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« Reply #15 on: November 13, 2018, 08:52:52 PM »

Missouri people: What the hell happened to Jefferson County? It went from D+2 in 2008 to R+35 (!) in 2016! And it's not even rural, it's sububan! And even Galloway lost it! Was it Ferguson? I'm sure that had a lot to do with it, but there must be more to the story than that.

Why JeffCo flipped so hard right in recent years: backlash to Ferguson protests (also an issue that may have hurt the Democrats in the Metro East in Illinois as well), the Lila Perry culture war fight for trans rights in Hillsboro and subsequent backlash to such rights, the St. Louis suburb/exurb growth southwards (esp. down I-55 and MO-21), declining union influence, and the southern and western portions being rural in nature.
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TML
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« Reply #16 on: November 13, 2018, 10:19:49 PM »

Remember that on the same day McCaskill lost, MO voters passed a ballot measure raising the minimum wage. The vote margin on that measure was 62-38 (+24%). This goes to show that even in red states, some progressive ideas have a significant degree of popularity. McCaskill made some of the same mistakes that Donnelly did in Indiana by alienating the Democratic base - I believe that if she had tied herself more closely to the minimum wage increase ballot measure, she could have held on to her seat or at least made it a nail-biter for her opponent.
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Tekken_Guy
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« Reply #17 on: November 13, 2018, 10:20:41 PM »

Missouri people: What the hell happened to Jefferson County? It went from D+2 in 2008 to R+35 (!) in 2016! And it's not even rural, it's sububan! And even Galloway lost it! Was it Ferguson? I'm sure that had a lot to do with it, but there must be more to the story than that.

Ferguson is in St. Louis county, not Jefferson.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #18 on: November 13, 2018, 10:22:41 PM »

Missouri people: What the hell happened to Jefferson County? It went from D+2 in 2008 to R+35 (!) in 2016! And it's not even rural, it's sububan! And even Galloway lost it! Was it Ferguson? I'm sure that had a lot to do with it, but there must be more to the story than that.

Ferguson is in St. Louis county, not Jefferson.

I'm aware.
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Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️
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« Reply #19 on: November 14, 2018, 12:04:33 AM »

You can try and nitpick about what McCaskill did, but even if she did something a bit different in one way or another, she most likely (almost certainly) would have still lost.

At the end of the day, she had a D next to her name and was running for Federal office in Missori, an increasingly deep red state with lots of rural and non-college educated white workers. That is basically a guaranteed loss at this point in the evolution of American politics, regardless of what else she might have tried to do differently.

And don't try and tell me that Kander did slightly better in a worse year overall for Dems. States do not swing uniformly - just because there was a national swing to Dems doesn't mean there was really much of one (if at all) in Missouri, and even when there is a strong national swing, some states with strong demographic counter-currents (like Missouri) can and often do resist the national swing and even swing in the opposite direction. Missouri is likely to keep trending more strongly Republican. It is headed more or less in the same direction already pioneered by its neighbor to the South, Arkansas.
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Mr. Smith
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« Reply #20 on: November 14, 2018, 12:54:15 AM »

What was Kander's strategy again?  All I remember is how he was Beto before Beto and ran past Koster by 3 and Hillary by 17.
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Canis
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« Reply #21 on: November 14, 2018, 12:57:27 AM »

What was Kander's strategy again?  All I remember is how he was Beto before Beto and ran past Koster by 3 and Hillary by 17.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-wqOApBLPio
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IceSpear
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« Reply #22 on: November 14, 2018, 01:05:22 AM »

What was Kander's strategy again?  All I remember is how he was Beto before Beto and ran past Koster by 3 and Hillary by 17.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-wqOApBLPio

NUT
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