A factor contributing to McCaskill's 6 point defeat..

[jamestroll]

cross posted from AAD

In some respects Claire McCaskill lost her 2018 re-election bid with her 2006 election strategy by not changing strategies as the world has shift.

Look at the Auditor's contest versus the US Senate contest. In most of the hick counties in Southern Missouri Galloway barely outperformed McCaskill. She won due to winning the urban areas and a few areas around her base in Boone County.

McCaskill spent way to much time in outstate Missouri trying to pander and win unwinnable votes. If she was going to win statewide all the voters she obtained in outstate Missouri she would have obtained anyway. Considering how close the results in St. Charles County were close to the state wide vote it is clear that McCaskill should have focused on urban and suburban areas primarily.

As of right now she has barely lost Platte County and only won barely in Clay County. The lack of a more intense campaign in St. Louis suburbs, Kansas City suburbs and Greene County likely stopped Democrats from picking up seats locally from state legislature to county offices. While a bid to win Jefferson County was miserable and Democrats were blown the  out in House District 118 which was vacated from Democrat Ben Harris.

We also lose a potential stunner upset in MO-02 because lack of focus in the urban areas of the state and more credible Democratic candidates not being willing to take on Ann Wagner. Thank you Cort VanOstran for doing what others were scared to do. Take on Ann Wagner.

[jamestroll]

Just curious but how did you fare with your astrology predictions? I remember you were pessimistic about McCaskill from the beginning.

BTW, I agree with you that it is a waste of time for Democrats to go after the hillbilly vote, these people just don't listen anymore.

Pretty good. Not having birth times was a huge handicap and  I botched GA-Gov.

But overall I think my micro-targetting on counties and races is what caused me to have my best cycle of predictions yet rather than astrology.

On the topic:

Missouri Democrats need to focus and tool in Greene County and very much micro target the Jackson County Suburbs plus Platte and Clay counties. They can locally make St. Charles County a swing county and retool in Jefferson. They will likely not win Jefferson in a statewide race but cutting down the margin there important.

We now have an appointed Lt. Governor and soon to be appointed Attorney General in Missouri. Will will botch those potential opportunities or will we focus on urban and suburban areas of the state and pull one or two upsets statewide in 2020? We shall see.

[jamestroll]

I don’t know what the path is for a Democrat to win statewide in Missouri is now, if one even exists now apart from random lower races. I thought McCaskill was going to pull it out in the end.

https://twitter.com/JMilesColeman/status/1060351399731568640

Just do exactly as I just suggested and it is possible to win statewide in Missouri. Though obviously extremely difficult.