Is the GOP suburban erosion temporary?

[Scottholes 2.0]

If there is a GOP wave in the 2020s, will the GOP win back suburban districts if they were to retake the House?

[lfromnj]

It might be short term temporary but just like rural racist hicks these elitist neoliberals are staying in your party. ENJOY WAUKESHA DEMOCRATS.

[MasterJedi]

It might be short term temporary but just like rural racist hicks these elitist neoliberals are staying in your party. ENJOY WAUKESHA DEMOCRATS.

Waukesha won't be Dem anytime soon, Wisconsin suburbs are not mixed well like other metro areas. They'll tighten somewhat though which will hurt Republicans having to rely on the rural vote.

[mvd10]

Impossible to say right now. I mean, it could be temporary if Trump loses in 2020 and the 2024 nominee is a relatively sane person (it doesn't even have to be queen Nikki or resistance hero Sasse lol), but for all we know Trump wins 2020 and in 2024 it's Roy Moore's time to #MAGA1850'sSTYLE America.

Then again, in the event the GOP wins 230-240 seats again I suspect most of the suburban seats (assuming they're not getting gerrymandered in safe D territory) will come back.

[lfromnj]

It might be short term temporary but just like rural racist hicks these elitist neoliberals are staying in your party. ENJOY WAUKESHA DEMOCRATS.

Waukesha won't be Dem anytime soon, Wisconsin suburbs are not mixed well like other metro areas. They'll tighten somewhat though which will hurt Republicans having to rely on the rural vote.

im meming but Ozaukee will go democrat soon. Waukesha will take some more time and washington looks solid R for a while

[jdk]

I would say no, considering that the GOP had been gradually losing support in the suburbs since the early 90's.  Trump just expedited the process...

[Roronoa D. Law]

If they remain the same party as they are now then no. Republican cans still win exurban and working-class suburbs like Lake and Macomb County.

[TDAS04]

Places like DuPage County, IL are not going to endorse Trumpism, and the GOP will remain the party of Trump for a while, so...

In outer suburbs I suppose the GOP can still do well.

[SATW]

The GOP doesn't care about being functional or normal, so I think we lose these voters for 15-30 years.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Absent a complete repudiation of Trump and a total 180 degree turn in the direction of the GOP, future Republicans will have about as much success winning back the suburban votes that they have lost as Claire McCaskill and Phil Bredesen had success in winning back rural white votes that Dems have lost.

[Tartarus Sauce]

Absent a complete repudiation of Trump and a total 180 degree turn in the direction of the GOP, future Republicans will have about as much success winning back the suburban votes that they have lost as Claire McCaskill and Phil Bredesen had success in winning back rural white votes that Dems have lost.

[Mr. Illini]

If they remain the same party as they are now then no. Republican cans still win exurban and working-class suburbs like Lake and Macomb County.

Which Lake are you talking about?

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Absent a complete repudiation of Trump and a total 180 degree turn in the direction of the GOP, future Republicans will have about as much success winning back the suburban votes that they have lost as Claire McCaskill and Phil Bredesen had success in winning back rural white votes that Dems have lost.

Couldn’t have said it better myself. Cobb, Gwinnett, Orange and the like are not coming back

Hamilton, IN is imminent.

[MarkD]

The pendulum will swing back, eventually. It always does. I can't say much about the short-term prospects. I think Trump is heading for a huge loss.

[TML]

As long as Republicans continue to appeal only to "angry white men," they will continue to lose support in the suburbs. One reason for this is because many people in the suburbs have substantial contact with people of different demographic groups and are thus more likely to be tolerant of them. If they can broaden their appeal, then they might be able to reverse that trend.

[Technocracy Timmy]

At this rate their floor in most suburbs will continue to fall but they will still be competitive in plenty of these suburbs in good GOP years for the time being. Even Democrats won a solid chunk of two-time Bush voting districts in 06’ and 08’.

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

Eventually, yes, but it will take long enough that people start referring to places like Orange County as ancestrally Democratic.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

I think Republicans bounce back in the less diverse suburbs in the 2020s once Trump is gone. The more diverse ones though are probably gone for a long time.

[Skill and Chance]

It will turn into a permanent generational thing unless the next Dem president is Bernie or a younger version of Bernie.

[Ye We Can]

Yes? Everything in politics is temporary

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's gonna be a decades long pendulum swing towards the Dems. Trump presidency was a temporary interruption in that swing.

[RINO Tom]

Yes? Everything in politics is temporary

Now please don’t quote me on this because Atlas likes to tell me otherwise, but I don’t think West Virginia or any of the other rural places Dems used to do well in are coming back

Most of them probably aren't coming back in the next 50-60 years/our current party system ... but that doesn't mean "never."  Alabama voting Republican ever 100 years ago would sound nothing short of impossible, and look at it today.  That was the point of Mumph's post, IMO.

[Sumner 1868]

One thing in this midterm that apparently nobody noticed is that Democrats were able to regain ground in the Obama-Trump white working-class cities and suburbs (i.e., Macomb County, MI; Erie County, PA; Kenosha County, WI; Trumbull County, OH) but not rural ones. That probably means the answer is no.

[mileslunn]

Depends on how the two parties go.  If the GOP continues to remain the party of Trump or continues to be an ideological driven right wing party, it will be tough.  They will win some but not most.  But if they return to a more traditional GOP stance, otherwise if they had someone like John Kasich, I think they could quite easily win back the suburbs.  Likewise also depends who the Democrats choose.  Most who made gains in midterms were moderates so if they choose someone like Elizabeth Warren or Bernie Sanders, you might get some holding their nose and voting Trump or some of your well to do college educated whites just not voting at all or for third parties thus allowing the GOP to take it on low turnout or with under 50%.  Not just in the US, but much of the Western world, generally urban areas tilt leftward, rural areas rightward, while suburbs are in the middle and can swing either way so usually whichever party is closer to the median voter be it a bit left or a bit right tends to win there.

Also too movement in people has a big impact.  If the suburbs continue to get more and more people who used to live in the city proper moving out there due to high costs, that will just make it harder for the GOP to win.  But if cities start establishing densification programs of building lots of high rises, you could have movement in the opposite direction and the more progressive types in the suburbs are probably more likely to move back to the city center than your conservative types living there.

[SInNYC]

Also too movement in people has a big impact.  If the suburbs continue to get more and more people who used to live in the city proper moving out there due to high costs, that will just make it harder for the GOP to win.  But if cities start establishing densification programs of building lots of high rises, you could have movement in the opposite direction and the more progressive types in the suburbs are probably more likely to move back to the city center than your conservative types living there.

This can't be understated. Suburbs owe their existence largely to white flight, and especially whites scared of POC. More recently, inner ring suburbs are themselves POC, and some suburban whites have fled to exurbs. The white flight component of suburbia is not a natural long-term component of the Democratic party (at least in its current form) if Rs get over Trumpism, but Ds can get some suburbanites who were priced out of cities.

I also have to wonder how the SALT deductions will affect movement of people.