KS-SEN 2020 Megathread: Marshall overperforms and wins

[tmthforu94]

KS 2020 Senate Race

Republican
- Roger Marshall, Big First Congressman

Declared Democrats
- Barbara Bollier, State Senator (Former Republican)


Original Post
Might as well get started on 2020...

Roberts has not ruled out running for reelection in 2020.

https://www.agweb.com/article/kansas-sen-pat-roberts-isnt-ruling-out-re-election-run/

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I would bet against him running at this point. Top contenders if he doesn't run: Congressman Roger Marshall and outgoing Governor Jeff Colyer. Kevin Yoder was also a possible candidate, but unsure of his strengths after losing reelection this year. I suspect Roberts would receive a strong conservative challenger if he runs again.

On the Democratic side, failed 3rd district candidate Brent Welder has signaled he will run. James Thompson wouldn't surprise me either.

[Bidenworth2020]

sorry tmth, this one won't be interesting . Well, maybe the primary will be. Koback comeback?

[Sestak]

Kobach trying again would be the only way Dems would have a chance here.

[IceSpear]

Pat Roberts was held to a 10 point win during a red wave by Goofy Greg in a state that is now trending D.

My early bold prediction: Keep an eye on this one. At the very least, it is more likely to go D than shiny objects like Alabama and Kentucky.

[Comrade Funk]

Pat Roberts was held to a 10 point win during a red wave by Goofy Greg in a state that is now trending D.

My early bold prediction: Keep an eye on this one. At the very least, it is more likely to go D than shiny objects like Alabama and Kentucky.

Never underestimate an IceSpear prediction

[Zaybay]

Pat Roberts was held to a 10 point win during a red wave by Goofy Greg in a state that is now trending D.

My early bold prediction: Keep an eye on this one. At the very least, it is more likely to go D than shiny objects like Alabama and Kentucky.

I actually agree with assessment. KS has been consistently trending D for the past 2 decades(albeit, very, very, slowly), but with the coalition Kelly was able to get, having high turnout in the cities and getting those suburbs on your side, it is possible. But still, this starts at likely R until further notice.

[IceSpear]

Pat Roberts was held to a 10 point win during a red wave by Goofy Greg in a state that is now trending D.

My early bold prediction: Keep an eye on this one. At the very least, it is more likely to go D than shiny objects like Alabama and Kentucky.

I actually agree with assessment. KS has been consistently trending D for the past 2 decades(albeit, very, very, slowly), but with the coalition Kelly was able to get, having high turnout in the cities and getting those suburbs on your side, it is possible. But still, this starts at likely R until further notice.

Agreed. A lot of things will have to fall into place just right for Dems to have a chance here, but it's not inconceivable.

It's pretty obvious that Pat Roberts would've been in deep trouble if he was up for re-election in 2018.

[Calthrina950]

Pat Roberts was held to a 10 point win during a red wave by Goofy Greg in a state that is now trending D.

My early bold prediction: Keep an eye on this one. At the very least, it is more likely to go D than shiny objects like Alabama and Kentucky.

I actually agree with assessment. KS has been consistently trending D for the past 2 decades(albeit, very, very, slowly), but with the coalition Kelly was able to get, having high turnout in the cities and getting those suburbs on your side, it is possible. But still, this starts at likely R until further notice.

Agreed. A lot of things will have to fall into place just right for Dems to have a chance here, but it's not inconceivable.

It's pretty obvious that Pat Roberts would've been in deep trouble if he was up for re-election in 2018.

Kansas has the longest Senatorial drought of any state in the nation for Democrats. No Democrat has won a Senate race there since 1932, a period of more than 86 years. That was the New Deal landslide of Franklin D. Roosevelt. Both of Kansas's Senators have been Republicans for going on 80 years now. So I'm hoping that sometime within the next 20-30 years, Kansas will finally end that streak. Given Kelly's performance, Davids's victory in KS-03, and the aforementioned Democratic trend, it is possible.

[YE]

Josh Savaty needs to run.

[IceSpear]

Josh Savaty needs to run.

Agreed. Why not? He won't get a chance at governor until at least 2026, and I doubt he (or any Dem) would have a chance against Moran.

[Bidenworth2020]

Josh Savaty needs to run.

Agreed. Why not? He won't get a chance at governor until at least 2026, and I doubt he (or any Dem) would have a chance against Moran.

he has Conor lamb potential.

[Boobs]

I have a sneaking suspicion this will end up similar to MO-SEN 2016, as long as Democrats nominate a decent candidate (which I think they will, for what it's worth.)

[Tartarus Sauce]

A Svaty vs Kobach race would be a true tossup, possibly even Lean D if Trump does very badly in 2020.

[IceSpear]

Josh Savaty needs to run.

Agreed. Why not? He won't get a chance at governor until at least 2026, and I doubt he (or any Dem) would have a chance against Moran.

he has Conor lamb potential.

And Pat Roberts definitely has Rick Saccone potential. In fact, he basically was Rick Saccone in 2014...except it was a red wave rather than a blue wave.

[Galaxie]

Kingpin Kelly needs to get the Kansas Dem machine up and running and this race will get cookin

[Pollster]

Kris Kobach probably runs regardless of whether or not Roberts retires, no?

Dems have quite a good slate of candidates - Svaty, Davis, even Sharice Davids could pull a Jacky Rosen. I also saw Barry Grissom mentioned on twitter.

Entirely possible that both parties have crowded primaries.

[lfromnj]

yeah against KKKobach its probably Likely R and closer to Lean with a strong candidate than a Safe R. It is a senate race but we saw 2014.

[TheSaint250]

Greg Orman for Senate (again)

[tmthforu94]

A couple points based on earlier posts:

I think it is highly unlikely Kobach will run after his terrible performance. He didn't even lose because of his controversial statements/positions. He primarily lost because he was just outworked by Kelly, her ground game and fundraising were far superior. Kobach is far more likely to take a position in the Trump administration, probably something that doesn't require Senate confirmation.

I always like to defer to VPH on the Democratic side, but I have reservations that Svaty will be able to win the nomination. The KDP is pretty liberal, and while they would have rallied around him for Governor, I just can't see a pro-life Democrat winning a Senate seat after Kavanaugh/Gorsuch and with more judicial appointments looming. I think Welder or Thompson would beat him head-to-head, which is sad because Svaty is far better in my eyes.

Just some food for thought: Kansas won the congressional races 54-44 in 2018 here, it probably would have been higher but we had a flawed candidate in the 2nd. Despite Democratic strength in eastern Kansas, they still have major weaknesses elsewhere that will complicate a statewide run.

Kelly won (in addition to outworking Kobach) because of the mistakes of Brownback and the Republican legislature. In 2020 we will be "Beyond Brownback" so the Democrats will only be able to run against Trump - probably not a successful strategy since Trump will carry the state with double-digits.

At this point I'd rate the race as Likely R but closer to Safe R. Like almost every other race, still early to confidently predict.

[QAnonKelly]

KS is a good target down the road. I don't see someone winning a senate election there in only two years but this seat could be winnable next go around in '26 imo

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

The way I see it, the only way this has any realistic chance of being competitive is if Greg Orman runs as an independent, there is no Democratic candidate and the Dems throw their support behind Orman.

Then, in order for Orman to actually win, he would probably have to pledge to caucus with the GOP, as an "Independent Republican." I am not completely 100% sure that would be needed, but I think there is a strong likelihood that he would lose in the end, even if just by a couple of points, if he didn't do that.

In the end, voters are just becoming ever more partisan, and it is just going to become rarer and rarer that any Senate elections in deeply Republican or deeply Democratic states are at all interesting.

So barring something like the above happening (or maybe if the R is discovered to be a child molester), there is probably no reason to even have a thread about this race.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

I have a sneaking suspicion this will end up similar to MO-SEN 2016, as long as Democrats nominate a decent candidate (which I think they will, for what it's worth.)

If Democrats have a candidate, "decent" or not, they are shooting themselves in the foot. The only chance for a not-Republican to win is if there is not a Democratic candidate. The best way to run some races is not to run at all.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Pat Roberts was held to a 10 point win during a red wave by Goofy Greg in a state that is now trending D.

My early bold prediction: Keep an eye on this one. At the very least, it is more likely to go D than shiny objects like Alabama and Kentucky.

[tmthforu94]

Pat Roberts is taking the Holiday to talk with friends and family about whether to run for another term, so I'd expect a decision in January/February.

A nice piece on Roberts:
https://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/politics-government/congress/article223414635.html

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[The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow]

Even if Kobach runs, I doubt he would win the nomination if there is a half-decent Republican alternative. He only barely scraped past Colyer last year in the gubernatorial primary and now has a pretty embarrassing defeat looming over his head; I don't think that a plurality of KS Republicans want to give him another shot at throwing away a very winnable race, considering a majority didn't even favor him in the primary last year.