KS-SEN 2020 Megathread: Marshall overperforms and wins

[HarrisonL]

Imagine Boyda running for Senate. I fear that old Democratic Representatives in Red Seats from 2006 would be even worse than bringing back old Governors like Bredesen for Senate.

[Corbyn is (no longer) the leader of the Labour Party]

Kansas may be trending dem, but losing the state by 10 instead by 20 doesn't change the outcome

No, Kansas is not trending Democratic just because Laura Kelly narrowly won the Governorship and Davids flipped a House Seat that Clinton won in 2016. Laura Kelly will lose in 2022.

Whether or not Kelly loses is dependent on who is President. If Republicans want to beat her they are going to have to sacrifice Trump's presidency because another Trump midterm would not be good for Republicans.

Presidency >>>>>>>> Congress and Governorships

[HarrisonL]

Kansas may be trending dem, but losing the state by 10 instead by 20 doesn't change the outcome

No, Kansas is not trending Democratic just because Laura Kelly narrowly won the Governorship and Davids flipped a House Seat that Clinton won in 2016. Laura Kelly will lose in 2022.

Whether or not Kelly loses is dependent on who is President. If Republicans want to beat her they are going to have to sacrifice Trump's presidency because another Trump midterm would not be good for Republicans.

Kelly would still lose in a Trump second term Midterm if Republicans could nominate an A-tier candidate.

[DaWN]

Kansas may be trending dem, but losing the state by 10 instead by 20 doesn't change the outcome

No, Kansas is not trending Democratic just because Laura Kelly narrowly won the Governorship and Davids flipped a House Seat that Clinton won in 2016. Laura Kelly will lose in 2022.

Whether or not Kelly loses is dependent on who is President. If Republicans want to beat her they are going to have to sacrifice Trump's presidency because another Trump midterm would not be good for Republicans.

Kelly would still lose in a Trump second term Midterm if Republicans could nominate an A-tier candidate.

Or she could become ultra popular and cruise to re-election like Baker even in a hostile environment. Far too early to tell.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Kobach to announce for Senate next month, report says.

(via Sunflower State Journal)

KS-SEN is Lean D if Kobach wins the nomination.

[SnowLabrador]

Kobach to announce for Senate next month, report says.

(via Sunflower State Journal)

KS-SEN is Lean D if Kobach wins the nomination.

Nope, Likely to Safe R. The only reason Kobach lost the gubernatorial election is because it was a state race, not a national race.

[MT Treasurer]

Nope, Likely to Safe R. The only reason Kobach lost the gubernatorial election is because it was a state race, not a national race.

It’s not exactly impossible for Democrats to win Senate races in red states, especially if the Republican candidate is incredibly flawed.

[smoltchanov]

Nope, Likely to Safe R. The only reason Kobach lost the gubernatorial election is because it was a state race, not a national race.

It’s not exactly impossible for Democrats to win Senate races in red states, especially if the Republican candidate is incredibly flawed.

But it's still much more difficult, then state races. Likely R. And only because considerable number of moderate Republicans either switched or routinely support Democratic candidates in Kansas.

[MT Treasurer]

But it's still much more difficult, then state races.

That’s obviously the case in blue (Democratic) states, but I don’t think the answer is as obvious when it comes to red (Republican) states. There are more Democratic Senators from red states than Democratic governors (if we count MT and OH as red states, which is debatable: Kelly/JBE/Bullock vs. Tester/Brown/Jones/Manchin).

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Kobach to announce for Senate next month, report says.

(via Sunflower State Journal)

KS-SEN is Lean D if Kobach wins the nomination.

Nope, Likely to Safe R. The only reason Kobach lost the gubernatorial election is because it was a state race, not a national race.

In 2010, Republicans failed to win a single gubernatorial race in >60% Obama in 2008 states, while they won 2 senate races in such states and came a primary election misfire away from winning 2 more, for a total of 4. The data points are more mixed than you realize.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Kobach to announce for Senate next month, report says.

(via Sunflower State Journal)

KS-SEN is Lean D if Kobach wins the nomination.

Nope, Likely to Safe R. The only reason Kobach lost the gubernatorial election is because it was a state race, not a national race.

In 2010, Republicans failed to win a single gubernatorial race in >60% Obama in 2008 states, while they won 2 senate races in such states and came a primary election misfire away from winning 2 more, for a total of 4. The data points are more mixed than you realize.

It should be noted that Republicans were the incumbents in a lot of these deep blue elastic states and thus couldn't run against the economy in 2010 like they did nationally. This made it harder in say CT and CA. The one state where the could run against the incumbent Dem Governor, they also had a primary misfire, Illinois. Also in CA, not only was Arnold deeply unpopular but Meg Whitman proved to be a disaster.

[Epaminondas]

It should be noted that Republicans were the incumbents in a lot of these deep blue elastic states

That sounds wrong.
Red-in-Blue-States Governors up in 2010 were Connecticut, Rhode Island, Vermont & Cali. They all lost but that's not exactly "a lot".

And in the Senate only NH, which hardly qualifies as deep blue.

[smoltchanov]

Red-in-Blue-States Governors up in 2010 were Connecticut, Rhode Island, Vermont & Cali. They all lost but that's not exactly "a lot".

None of them lost in fact...

[Canis]

Red-in-Blue-States Governors up in 2010 were Connecticut, Rhode Island, Vermont & Cali. They all lost but that's not exactly "a lot".

None of them lost in fact...

None of them ran in fact

[smoltchanov]

Red-in-Blue-States Governors up in 2010 were Connecticut, Rhode Island, Vermont & Cali. They all lost but that's not exactly "a lot".

None of them lost in fact...

None of them ran in fact

Both statements are true, So what?

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/Politics1com/status/1144970113503944704?s=19

For those unaware Boyda was one of the suburban liberal Republicans before 2018, but she flipped to be closer to her ideological brethren in 2018. This type of candidate: female, suburban, formerly conservative but fiercly opposed to the brownback style radicals, is exactly what Democrats need if Kobach once again ends up as the KS GOPs prominent nominee.

[LabourJersey]

https://twitter.com/Politics1com/status/1144970113503944704?s=19

For those unaware Boyda was one of the suburban liberal Republicans before 2018, but she flipped to be closer to her ideological brethren in 2018. This type of candidate: female, suburban, formerly conservative but fiercly opposed to the brownback style radicals, is exactly what Democrats need if Kobach once again ends up as the KS GOPs prominent nominee.

She switch parties in 2003, not 2018.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/Politics1com/status/1144970113503944704?s=19

For those unaware Boyda was one of the suburban liberal Republicans before 2018, but she flipped to be closer to her ideological brethren in 2018. This type of candidate: female, suburban, formerly conservative but fiercly opposed to the brownback style radicals, is exactly what Democrats need if Kobach once again ends up as the KS GOPs prominent nominee.

She switch parties in 2003, not 2018.

My mistake, I was thinking of a different Suburban, Female, Republican. But it doesn't detract from anything else I said.

[smoltchanov]

https://twitter.com/Politics1com/status/1144970113503944704?s=19

For those unaware Boyda was one of the suburban liberal Republicans before 2018, but she flipped to be closer to her ideological brethren in 2018. This type of candidate: female, suburban, formerly conservative but fiercly opposed to the brownback style radicals, is exactly what Democrats need if Kobach once again ends up as the KS GOPs prominent nominee.

Are you sure, that you describe Nancy Boyda and not Barbara Bollier?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://amp-kansascity-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/amp.kansascity.com/news/politics-government/article232075257.html?amp_js_v=a2&amp_gsa=1&usqp=mq331AQA#referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&ampshare=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.kansascity.com%2Fnews%2Fpolitics-government%2Farticle232075257.html


Never mind IA, Dems net a huge win, with Barry Grissom for KS Senate

[Pollster]

This is a good recruit for Democrats, certainly better than Boyda though I'm sure the DSCC will still shop for a younger, female candidate (no more word from Smarsh since April). Article mentions that Schumer has spoken to Barbara Bollier, which I believe is the first we've heard of any action on her candidacy.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

With a 2012 map or to a lesser extent; Dems can still win AZ, CO, KS and NC

[Epaminondas]

https://twitter.com/Politics1com/status/1144970113503944704?s=19

Looking at her picture, I'd have put money that she was Republican. She changed registrations at 48, which is intriguing. Feels like opportunism.

She's younger than I thought (63), but wouldn't she appear bland for today's young Dems in contrast to Sharice Davids?
Today Democrats need a passion factor to turn out their base. That's why Kelly won and Paul Davis lost handily after winning the district in 2014.

[smoltchanov]

https://twitter.com/Politics1com/status/1144970113503944704?s=19

Looking at her picture, I'd have put money that she was Republican. She changed registrations at 48, which is intriguing. Feels like opportunism.

She's younger than I thought (63), but wouldn't she appear bland for today's young Dems in contrast to Sharice Davids?
Today Democrats need a passion factor to turn out their base. That's why Kelly won and Paul Davis lost handily after winning the district in 2014.

You can't win in Kansas on "base enthusiasm" only.... You need a lot of "bland well-to-do suburban" votes too... And they are not too likely to go for "bold progressive". Sharice Davis, for example, has moderate-to-liberal voting record, which is unoffensive to them...

[Epaminondas]

You can't win in Kansas on "base enthusiasm" only.... You need a lot of "bland well-to-do suburban" votes too... And they are not too likely to go for "bold progressive".

You couldn't correctly define progressivism if it slapped you in the face.