KS-SEN 2020 Megathread: Marshall overperforms and wins

[Pollster]

So what would a Democratic win look like on the map? The same counties Laura Kelly won last year? Is that possible? It would be nice to pick this one up.

There are a couple of different paths. Laura Kelly's performance in Johnson County was beyond even my own expectations (which were higher than most) and that was likely a perfect mix of Kobach's toxicity, Brownback's disaster, Orman getting some Republican votes, and the race being less polarized at the state level. A performance similar to Sharice Davids' is more likely in JoCo at the Senate level.

The big question mark here is if the Democrats will make an effort to expand the electorate with Latinx voters in the southwestern portion of the state. This would cut into Marshall's base in KS-01 significantly and make up for potentially lost votes in JoCo, Sedgwick, and the exurban counties between KC and Topeka.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Wtf is a “Latinx?” A Spanish speaking dominatrix?

[ctherainbow]

Wtf is a “Latinx?” A Spanish speaking dominatrix?

It’s a gender-neutral term for a person or group of people with Latin American ancestry.  Since “Latino” and “Latina” are gendered words, “Latinx” can be used to refer to a mixed-gender group of people, in this case, voters in Kansas.  The term “Hispanic” is often interchangeable with “Latinx”, but “Latinx” is also there as an option, and is also more accurate when referring to people with Brazilian ancestry, for instance, since they are Latinx but not Hispanic(as Brazilians for the most part speak Portuguese, not Spanish).   


On-topic:  I fully expect even Kobach to win in a presidential year Senate election, but it will be very interesting to see how close it is.

[We Live in Black and White]

Wtf is a “Latinx?” A Spanish speaking dominatrix?

It’s a gender-neutral term for a person or group of people with Latin American ancestry.  Since “Latino” and “Latina” are gendered words, “Latinx” can be used to refer to a mixed-gender group of people, in this case, voters in Kansas.  The term “Hispanic” is often interchangeable with “Latinx”, but “Latinx” is also there as an option, and is also more accurate when referring to people with Brazilian ancestry, for instance, since they are Latinx but not Hispanic(as Brazilians for the most part speak Portuguese, not Spanish).   

An admirable effort, but you are in fact trying to explain the concept of cultural sensitivity to a """reformed""" Confederate, so I'm afraid it's moot.

[ctherainbow]

An admirable effort, but you are in fact trying to explain the concept of cultural sensitivity to a """reformed""" Confederate, so I'm afraid it's moot.

Oh, I see.



Thanks for the heads-up.  Maybe I can do some conversion with Drag Race gifs.


On-topic(kind of):  I feel like in the event that Kobach wins and we have a GOP President in 2026, Sharice Davids should run for this seat.  She’s impressed me thus far, and if she had more congressional experience under her belt than she does, I’d have been interested to see what a 2020 matchup between her and Kobach would look like.

[Pollster]

The term "Latinx" is picking up steam within actual Latinx communities, something I recently noticed in focus groups and began adopting myself. I assumed it had to do with gender, but wasn't sure. My understanding has always been that "Hispanic" refers to people from Spanish-speaking countries, while "Latino/a/x" refers to people from Latin America, with many people obviously falling under both categories.

[Brittain33]

Jorge Ramos used the term before the last Dem debate.

[Flyersfan232]

Wtf is a “Latinx?” A Spanish speaking dominatrix?

It’s a gender-neutral term for a person or group of people with Latin American ancestry.  Since “Latino” and “Latina” are gendered words, “Latinx” can be used to refer to a mixed-gender group of people, in this case, voters in Kansas.  The term “Hispanic” is often interchangeable with “Latinx”, but “Latinx” is also there as an option, and is also more accurate when referring to people with Brazilian ancestry, for instance, since they are Latinx but not Hispanic(as Brazilians for the most part speak Portuguese, not Spanish).   


On-topic:  I fully expect even Kobach to win in a presidential year Senate election, but it will be very interesting to see how close it is.

LATINX ISNT A WORD!

[Flyersfan232]

An admirable effort, but you are in fact trying to explain the concept of cultural sensitivity to a """reformed""" Confederate, so I'm afraid it's moot.

Oh, I see.



Thanks for the heads-up.  Maybe I can do some conversion with Drag Race gifs.


On-topic(kind of):  I feel like in the event that Kobach wins and we have a GOP President in 2026, Sharice Davids should run for this seat.  She’s impressed me thus far, and if she had more congressional experience under her belt than she does, I’d have been interested to see what a 2020 matchup between her and Kobach would look like.

I can’t see her winning a state wide race

[Yellowhammer]

Wtf is a “Latinx?” A Spanish speaking dominatrix?

Something that SJW's say to refer to Latinos because they're phobic of using a word that implies gender.

[SnowLabrador]

I think Marshall wins the primary and general election.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Thank goodness for KS, I am bullish on Dems chances on expanding our majority to 255 in House and having 50+ seats in Senate; as a result of: Trump

[SnowLabrador]

Thank goodness for KS, I am bullish on Dems chances on expanding our majority to 255 in House and having 50+ seats in Senate; as a result of: Trump

Dude, there are still a lot of things that have to go right.

[ctherainbow]

LATINX ISNT A WORD!

Thus spake Flyersfan232, and lo, the vocabularies of the world shook, for they had been thus commanded that Latinx was not a word.




On-topic:  Do any of the potential Dems being floated have the kind of support from GOP establishment members that Kelly pulled?  Because while elections are rather polarized by party, given how close the margin is likely to be if the Dem manages pull it off, they’re going to need all the crossover voters they can wrangle up.

[Pollster]

Do any of the potential Dems being floated have the kind of support from GOP establishment members that Kelly pulled?  Because while elections are rather polarized by party, given how close the margin is likely to be if the Dem manages pull it off, they’re going to need all the crossover voters they can wrangle up.

Grissom v. Kobach likely would have seen measurable establishment GOP support for Grissom before his controversy hit. Less so now.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This is a change election, Trump is a corrupted man and impeachment needs to be placed on him. Trump has not put any minorities in place in judgeships or cabinet position. 2020 may be a realignment like 2008

[Pollster]

Wink Hartman, Kobach's 2018 running mate and wannabe, is considering

[Sestak]

Jorge Ramos used the term before the last Dem debate.

And then proceeded not to use it during the debate, which I found rather interesting. Any idea why?

[Brittain33]

Jorge Ramos used the term before the last Dem debate.

And then proceeded not to use it during the debate, which I found rather interesting. Any idea why?

Guessing wildly, it may not be part of his natural vocabulary because of his age but he felt it was important for a prepared intro?

[Pollster]

Can we please take the culture war over Latino/a/x elsewhere?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

KS definitely can have a Dem elected Senator. Even if Marshall wins R nomination. Scandal hasnt hurt Barry Grissom

[Landslide Lyndon]

I guess we can safely assume now that there will be no last minute entry by Mike Pompeo to save Republicans from Kobach.

[SnowLabrador]

I guess we can safely assume now that there will be no last minute entry by Mike Pompeo to save Republicans from Kobach.

Republicans aren't dumb enough to nominate Kobach again.

[JMT]

I guess we can safely assume now that there will be no last minute entry by Mike Pompeo to save Republicans from Kobach.

While McConnell has stated that Pompeo is his top choice for this seat, I imagine Trump does not want this to happen, as he would lose his Secretary of State as we are approaching an election. Pompeo knows this, and probably does not want to upset Trump.

A scenario I think would work for Republicans is this: Trump endorses Roger Marshall in the primary. This would make him the favorite to win the GOP nomination, and I think Marshall would be the clear favorite in the general election as well. In this scenario, Republicans get an "electable" Republican for the general election, and Trump gets to keep his Secretary of State. Is anyone else surprised this scenario has yet to play out?

[Pollster]

I guess we can safely assume now that there will be no last minute entry by Mike Pompeo to save Republicans from Kobach.

While McConnell has stated that Pompeo is his top choice for this seat, I imagine Trump does not want this to happen, as he would lose his Secretary of State as we are approaching an election. Pompeo knows this, and probably does not want to upset Trump.

A scenario I think would work for Republicans is this: Trump endorses Roger Marshall in the primary. This would make him the favorite to win the GOP nomination, and I think Marshall would be the clear favorite in the general election as well. In this scenario, Republicans get an "electable" Republican for the general election, and Trump gets to keep his Secretary of State. Is anyone else surprised this scenario has yet to play out?

I believe OP was referring to Pompeo's being subpoenaed and potentially being implicated in or somehow damaged by the impeachment proceedings.