The Megathread for All Things Hoosier!

[Unconditional Surrender Truman]

The Carmel city council elections again, this time by precinct (and with neater lines). Nelson won every precinct in Carmel West and fell just short of 60% in several, but the strongest precinct for the Dems of the 12 they carried was Mowhawk Hills (a neighborhood within walking distance of downtown Carmel). Meanwhile, the strongest GOP precinct in a contested district was Woodfield, which borders the city of Westfield to the north.

The three GOP > 60% precincts in Carmel North are the oldest section of the neighborhood centered around Our Lady of Mount Carmel; if they're subtracted from the district total, the incumbent Republican councilor wins reelection by 186 votes (the actual margin in the district was 273). Mount Carmel 2, comprising the new section, voted for the Democratic candidate by a single vote, 109 to 108.

Given the evident west/east divide, it will be interesting to see how the precincts west of Illinois Street in the uncontested Southeast district vote in 2020.

(1)

Precinct boundary map taken from the official city website (link).



(1) Own work, 6 November 2019.

[Unconditional Surrender Truman]

For reference, the 2018 U.S. Senate election in Carmel, by precinct:

(1)


(1) Own work, 6 November 2019.

[Frenchrepublican]

The Carmel city council elections again, this time by precinct (and with neater lines). Nelson won every precinct in Carmel West and fell just short of 60% in several, but the strongest precinct for the Dems of the 12 they carried was Mowhawk Hills (a neighborhood within walking distance of downtown Carmel). Meanwhile, the strongest GOP precinct in a contested district was Woodfield, which borders the city of Westfield to the north.

The three GOP > 60% precincts in Carmel North are the oldest section of the neighborhood centered around Our Lady of Mount Carmel; if they're subtracted from the district total, the incumbent Republican councilor wins reelection by 186 votes (the actual margin in the district was 273). Mount Carmel 2, comprising the new section, voted for the Democratic candidate by a single vote, 109 to 108.

Given the evident west/east divide, it will be interesting to see how the precincts west of Illinois Street in the uncontested Southeast district vote in 2020.

(1)

Precinct boundary map taken from the official city website (link).



(1) Own work, 6 November 2019.

Very interesting

[Frenchrepublican]

Personal question : Why did dems did so well in Fort Wayne ? The mayoral race was considered as a toss-up but Henry won in a landslide (and dems took 2 seats on the city council).

[jamestroll]

We will win in IN-05 and I am hoping Democrats find a credible candidate for Attorney General so we can humiliate Curtis Hill when he fails to carry Hamilton County!

Also:

https://twitter.com/BMcM2018/status/1192226673019752450

It appears the entire Marion County portion of IN-05 is represented by Democrats

[libertpaulian]

If Hill faces either a suspension of his law license or disbarment, the AG race becomes Safe R.

[StateBoiler]

Personal question : Why did dems did so well in Fort Wayne ? The mayoral race was considered as a toss-up but Henry won in a landslide (and dems took 2 seats on the city council).

Looked like a combination of everyone thought Henry was doing a good job and Smith turned off a lot of people. Of the 5 Republicans running citywide, Smith ran more than 2000 votes behind the next-worst. Talked to a volunteer briefly of what the mood at County HQ was like night of and she said "everyone was expecting the loss, but not the margin".

I personally put this defeat a lot more on the candidate.

This race set a record for money spent. On radio yesterday they made the point 4 years ago, Mitch Harper spent $150k and got 43% of the vote. Smith spent $1.2 million and got 39%. It reminds me of the Democrats' candidate for Congress last time Courtney Tritch who spent more than a million dollars to do not much better than what Democrats in that district always do in her loss to Rep. Jim Banks.

(Banks has primary opposition from a Warsaw physician.)

Also, to agree with something Brian Howey has kind of mentioned: the fact everyone thought this race was a toss up, Holcomb came here to visit, and the winning margin was 61-39, polling is a dead industry at the local race level.

Also amazed that what I consider a down election for Republicans, they actually went up 19 to have their most town halls ever. I think that just is in support of the overall trend of Republicans are getting removed from the big cities and the Democrats are disappearing everywhere else.

[libertpaulian]

Personal question : Why did dems did so well in Fort Wayne ? The mayoral race was considered as a toss-up but Henry won in a landslide (and dems took 2 seats on the city council).

Also amazed that what I consider a down election for Republicans, they actually went up 19 to have their most town halls ever. I think that just is in support of the overall trend of Republicans are getting removed from the big cities and the Democrats are disappearing everywhere else.

I think Democrats can still do somewhat well in more sparsely-populated areas if they put in the work and do retail politics right.  A Dem got elected mayor of Monticello, for instance.

[StateBoiler]

Personal question : Why did dems did so well in Fort Wayne ? The mayoral race was considered as a toss-up but Henry won in a landslide (and dems took 2 seats on the city council).

Also amazed that what I consider a down election for Republicans, they actually went up 19 to have their most town halls ever. I think that just is in support of the overall trend of Republicans are getting removed from the big cities and the Democrats are disappearing everywhere else.

I think Democrats can still do somewhat well in more sparsely-populated areas if they put in the work and do retail politics right.  A Dem got elected mayor of Monticello, for instance.

This doesn't really feel like an election where the Indiana GOP has their most ever town halls though, but they do. Sure you have some corruption-related switches in Michigan City and Muncie, and local issues reign Supreme. I know in Fort Wayne and Allen County the Republican Party haven't even had winnable seats they have lost in anything outside of the Mayor's race going back to maybe 2012. Even Henry's win 4 years ago, his City Clerk had an electioneering scandal on recorded video and the Democrats only took 2 of 9 seats, which with how the districts are is their absolute bare minimum. 2016: local Democrats lost everything outside of stuff they absolutely should win. 2018: more of the same, except they narrowly flipped 1 Township Trustee position. That's how far down you have to go.

Again, looking forward to 2020, if this is a good Democrat year, and the GOP are larger than ever due to good performance in smaller city and town races not driven by the national political narrative, do the Democrats even approach having a strategy outside of large urban areas? Zody's quote in HPI this morning, he's full-on identity politics. You have to get to sentence 4 before he stops talking about what color or gender people were born as.

[libertpaulian]

Personal question : Why did dems did so well in Fort Wayne ? The mayoral race was considered as a toss-up but Henry won in a landslide (and dems took 2 seats on the city council).

Also amazed that what I consider a down election for Republicans, they actually went up 19 to have their most town halls ever. I think that just is in support of the overall trend of Republicans are getting removed from the big cities and the Democrats are disappearing everywhere else.

I think Democrats can still do somewhat well in more sparsely-populated areas if they put in the work and do retail politics right.  A Dem got elected mayor of Monticello, for instance.

Again, looking forward to 2020, if this is a good Democrat year, and the GOP are larger than ever due to good performance in smaller city and town races not driven by the national political narrative, do the Democrats even approach having a strategy outside of large urban areas? Zody's quote in HPI this morning, he's full-on identity politics. You have to get to sentence 4 before he stops talking about what color or gender people were born as.

I think the Indiana Dems would be wise to look at Andy Beshear in Kentucky.  He was able to excite urban and suburban voters while not totally scaring off rural and small-town voters.

[Frenchrepublican]

Personal question : Why did dems did so well in Fort Wayne ? The mayoral race was considered as a toss-up but Henry won in a landslide (and dems took 2 seats on the city council).

Also amazed that what I consider a down election for Republicans, they actually went up 19 to have their most town halls ever. I think that just is in support of the overall trend of Republicans are getting removed from the big cities and the Democrats are disappearing everywhere else.

I think Democrats can still do somewhat well in more sparsely-populated areas if they put in the work and do retail politics right.  A Dem got elected mayor of Monticello, for instance.

Again, looking forward to 2020, if this is a good Democrat year, and the GOP are larger than ever due to good performance in smaller city and town races not driven by the national political narrative, do the Democrats even approach having a strategy outside of large urban areas? Zody's quote in HPI this morning, he's full-on identity politics. You have to get to sentence 4 before he stops talking about what color or gender people were born as.

I think the Indiana Dems would be wise to look at Andy Beshear in Kentucky.  He was able to excite urban and suburban voters while not totally scaring off rural and small-town voters.

Sure, but Holcomb =/= Bevin

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

We will win in IN-05 and I am hoping Democrats find a credible candidate for Attorney General so we can humiliate Curtis Hill when he fails to carry Hamilton County!

Also:

https://twitter.com/BMcM2018/status/1192226673019752450

It appears the entire Marion County portion of IN-05 is represented by Democrats

The 2015-2019 swing map is amazing:



Basically, if you're a white Hoosier with a college degree and a piano in your house, pretty good chance you're voting Democrat as much or more than Republican now. Those voters broke massively Republican just a few cycles ago. Madness.

The GOP is bleeding suburban voters faster than the Democrats are bleeding working class voters.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Here are my maps for Indianapolis City-County Council. I live in 6, and I can't believe the Democratic candidate won. I've lived here for over four years, and it came as a complete shock.

[Frenchrepublican]

Here are my maps for Indianapolis City-County Council. I live in 6, and I can't believe the Democratic candidate won. I've lived here for over four years, and it came as a complete shock.

Not really surprising, Clinton won the northern parts of Marion County by double digits. The district where you live is basically the equivalent of VA10th

[lfromnj]

So marion is 3 parts?
Urban minority inner middle north. Rich white parts in the north along with yuppies and south is WWC?

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

So marion is 3 parts?
Urban minority inner middle north. Rich white parts in the north along with yuppies and south is WWC?

Bingo.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

So marion is 3 parts?
Urban minority inner middle north. Rich white parts in the north along with yuppies and south is WWC?

Bingo.

And if you really want an illustration in stark relief, compare the precinct map of 2008 Presidential vs 2016 Presidential. Those solid Hillary precincts were solid McCain. Meanwhile, a lot of slight Obama precincts went heavily for Trump.

I don't have figures for population change, but it can't possibly be the results of changing demographics. The big growth is by and large happening in the "donut counties." This is the result of voters flipping party affiliation. Conservative Democrats (the Bayh family) are gone. "Business" Republicans (the Dick Lugar, Greg Ballard) are endangered.

[lfromnj]

So marion is 3 parts?
Urban minority inner middle north. Rich white parts in the north along with yuppies and south is WWC?

Bingo.

And if you really want an illustration in stark relief, compare the precinct map of 2008 Presidential vs 2016 Presidential. Those solid Hillary precincts were solid McCain. Meanwhile, a lot of slight Obama precincts went heavily for Trump.

I don't have figures for population change, but it can't possibly be the results of changing demographics. The big growth is by and large happening in the "donut counties." This is the result of voters flipping party affiliation. Conservative Democrats (the Bayh family) are gone. "Business" Republicans (the Dick Lugar, Greg Ballard) are endangered.

Do you have a precint map of 08?

[libertpaulian]

Last week's elections cemented Marion as a Safe D county, perhaps even Titanium D.  They've also shifted Hamilton County from Safe to Likely R.

The Dem's chances to flip the 5th have also increased.

[StateBoiler]

So marion is 3 parts?
Urban minority inner middle north. Rich white parts in the north along with yuppies and south is WWC?

Bingo.

And if you really want an illustration in stark relief, compare the precinct map of 2008 Presidential vs 2016 Presidential. Those solid Hillary precincts were solid McCain. Meanwhile, a lot of slight Obama precincts went heavily for Trump.

I don't have figures for population change, but it can't possibly be the results of changing demographics. The big growth is by and large happening in the "donut counties." This is the result of voters flipping party affiliation. Conservative Democrats (the Bayh family) are gone. "Business" Republicans (the Dick Lugar, Greg Ballard) are endangered.

2020 governor's race will be interesting to see results in Marion County then. I think Holcomb would be considered a Lugar-type. If he wins statewide by a wide margin as expected, and Marion still goes hardcore D, yeah, it's titanium D.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

So marion is 3 parts?
Urban minority inner middle north. Rich white parts in the north along with yuppies and south is WWC?

Bingo.

And if you really want an illustration in stark relief, compare the precinct map of 2008 Presidential vs 2016 Presidential. Those solid Hillary precincts were solid McCain. Meanwhile, a lot of slight Obama precincts went heavily for Trump.

I don't have figures for population change, but it can't possibly be the results of changing demographics. The big growth is by and large happening in the "donut counties." This is the result of voters flipping party affiliation. Conservative Democrats (the Bayh family) are gone. "Business" Republicans (the Dick Lugar, Greg Ballard) are endangered.

Do you have a precint map of 08?

Somewhere, but I can't find it at the moment. Took me forever to make, too. I'll post it as soon as I find it.

[StateBoiler]

Curtis Hill has announced he'll seek re-election to Attorney General.

He has at least one opponent at the State Convention.

Hill is still in an Indiana Supreme Court Disciplinary Commission hearing.

For some humor and support for the political theory of constitutional officers should be appointed, here's a poll conducted on Hill:

The Ball State University Hoosier Poll tested Hill for the first time. Large percentages of Hoosiers either have not heard of Hill (11%) or didn’t express an opinion (36%). Only 38% of respondents approved of the attorney general’s job performance; 15% expressed disapproval. 

[StateBoiler]

Where I get my political news is mostly the Howey Politics newsletter. The publisher Brian Howey has been in the hospital in critical care after getting a hematoma.

Brian Bosma, who has been the Republicans' leader in the State House of Representatives since 2001 (and Speaker 2005-07, 2011-current), has announced the 2020 session will be his last. The House Republicans will vote on his tentative replacement in the next few weeks and that person will work alongside Bosma during the 2020 session to get lay of the land.

Sea change for the state legislative GOP, as longtime leaders have retired these past 2 years. 2018 was the last year for State Senate leader David Long and 2020 will be it for Bosma.

https://www.news-sentinel.com/news/indiana-state-news/2019/11/20/indiana-house-speaker-says-hell-retire-after-2020-session/

INDIANAPOLIS (AP) — The longest-serving leader of the Indiana House announced Tuesday that he will retire after the 2020 legislative session.

Republican Speaker Brian Bosma told lawmakers that he would continue in the powerful position that largely controls which proposals are considered until the upcoming session ends in March. Bosma, 62, said he wouldn’t seek reelection in 2020 after 34 years in the House.

Bosma presided over the House as Republicans took major steps such as creating the state’s private school voucher program, approving the contentious state religious objections law, leasing the Indiana Toll Road to a private operator and adopting statewide daylight saving time. He maneuvered last spring’s passage of a state hate-crimes law that critics fault for not having language that explicitly covers age, sex or gender identity.

He also spearheaded the GOP push to make Indiana the first Midwestern state with a “right to work” law barring companies and unions from signing contracts that require employees to pay union fees. That bill prompted lengthy boycotts by Democratic lawmakers in 2011 and 2012 that ultimately failed as Bosma ordered $1,000-a-day fines against them.

Bosma on Tuesday touted the growth of Indiana’s $2 billion in cash reserves, the state’s top credit rating, and cuts in state corporate and income taxes during his time leading the House.

“While we’re not perfect, Indiana is really the envy of the nation on the fiscal and business front,” he said.

Bosma has been the top House Republican as either speaker or minority leader since 2001. He was first speaker in 2005-2006 as Mitch Daniels’ election as governor helped Republicans regain a House majority after six years.

Democrats took control again for four years, but Bosma has been speaker since 2011. And GOP control of redistricting that year helped propel them to supermajorities topping two-thirds of the House since 2013 that enable Republicans to take action even with no Democrats present.

House Democratic leader Phil GiaQuinta of Fort Wayne said he had many policy disagreements with Bosma but called him a good friend and worthy adversary.

“The speaker has probably grown in the way he’s done his job over the last couple of sessions, trying to include more Democrats in decision-making versus when he first started,” GiaQuinta said.

Bosma pushed a proposed state constitution amendment banning gay marriage for several years until it stalled in 2014, a year before the U.S. Supreme Court legalized such marriages nationwide.

That fight was followed in 2015 by the battle over a religious objections law, which Bosma supported until it faced a national uproar over whether it could be used to sanction discrimination against gays and lesbians. Bosma was then among GOP legislative leaders who within days negotiated revisions blocking its use as a legal defense for refusing to provide services that then-Gov. Mike Pence reluctantly signed.

Bosma said he’ll become chairman of the Washington-based Republican Legislative Campaign Committee and continue working at an Indianapolis law firm.

Republican House members will select Bosma’s successor in the coming weeks. Bosma said the successor will work with him during the 2020 session and take over GOP caucus leadership heading into the November 2020 election when all 100 House seats will be on the ballot.

[libertpaulian]

The Indiana Dems should run Gill again.  I think it's a prime pickup opportunity for them, especially now that incumbency won't be a factor, and his district is rapidly trending D.

[Yellowhammer]

Last week's elections cemented Marion as a Safe D county, perhaps even Titanium D.  They've also shifted Hamilton County from Safe to Likely R.

The Dem's chances to flip the 5th have also increased.

Increased from 0% to 1%?