US Senate elections, 2024

[Figueira]

It's never too early!

Assuming Nelson loses (although it's safe to say Florida will be hotly contested either way).

Republican targets: West Virginia, Montana, Ohio, Arizona, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, Maine (if King retires), Nevada, Virginia (those last two are a stretch)

Democratic targets: Florida, Texas, Missouri, Indiana (those last two are a stretch)

So yeah, this map definitely still favors Republicans. Luckily for Democrats, it's going to be either an open WH after 8 years of Trump, or a Democratic incumbent running for re-election, so more likely than not to be a Democratic-leaning year.

[Politician]

At this ridiculously early juncture:

[Heisenberg]

I think Troy Balderson makes Ohio start at least Lean R. The state is trending more and more Republican, and he already has the name recognition, he's become a darling on the right for holding the seat in the special election, and has shown he can win tough races. He'd be the top recruit for Republicans, I believe.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Dems will have 55-45 probably after 2022

[Scottholes 2.0]

If Tammy Baldwin runs for a third term in 2024, she'll win easily. She is the Wisconsin version of Amy Khlobuchar.

[libertpaulian]

JD Ford might be a sleeper contender against Braun in 2024, especially as Hamilton County trends further left.  I also see him being able to turn out the base in Gary, Indy, and Bloomington.  He won't have Donnelly's problem of not having any appeal to the base. 

[Pericles]

Think it's a reasonably close presidential year, maybe Democrat wins by Obama 2012 like margins or slightly less. It's a gain of 3 or 4 seats for the Republicans(depending on the outcome in Florida). King retires in Maine, perhaps there is a good GOP candidate or perhaps Maine has substantially shifted to the right since 2018.

[Bidenworth2020]

JD Ford might be a sleeper contender against Braun in 2024, especially as Hamilton County trends further left.  I also see him being able to turn out the base in Gary, Indy, and Bloomington.  He won't have Donnelly's problem of not having any appeal to the base. 

don't forget donnelly still overperformed you average dem in rurals. You need the crazy turnout and those numbers in rurals.

[lfromnj]

JD Ford might be a sleeper contender against Braun in 2024, especially as Hamilton County trends further left.  I also see him being able to turn out the base in Gary, Indy, and Bloomington.  He won't have Donnelly's problem of not having any appeal to the base. 

don't forget donnelly still overperformed you average dem in rurals. You need the crazy turnout and those numbers in rurals.

The future path to winning Indiana is not through Vigo racist hicks but through Neoliberal rich Hamilton voters. next time democrats win Indiana they will win Hamilton.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

[MAINEiac4434]

Think it's a reasonably close presidential year, maybe Democrat wins by Obama 2012 like margins or slightly less. It's a gain of 3 or 4 seats for the Republicans(depending on the outcome in Florida). King retires in Maine, perhaps there is a good GOP candidate or perhaps Maine has substantially shifted to the right since 2018.

No

[Pericles]

Think it's a reasonably close presidential year, maybe Democrat wins by Obama 2012 like margins or slightly less. It's a gain of 3 or 4 seats for the Republicans(depending on the outcome in Florida). King retires in Maine, perhaps there is a good GOP candidate or perhaps Maine has substantially shifted to the right since 2018.

No

Even if Maine stays Democratic-leaning, candidate quality could matter.

[lfromnj]

Think it's a reasonably close presidential year, maybe Democrat wins by Obama 2012 like margins or slightly less. It's a gain of 3 or 4 seats for the Republicans(depending on the outcome in Florida). King retires in Maine, perhaps there is a good GOP candidate or perhaps Maine has substantially shifted to the right since 2018.

No

Im sure a 95% white state that is 60% rural that has a large conservative base is gonna keep electing democrats.

[Figueira]

Think it's a reasonably close presidential year, maybe Democrat wins by Obama 2012 like margins or slightly less. It's a gain of 3 or 4 seats for the Republicans(depending on the outcome in Florida). King retires in Maine, perhaps there is a good GOP candidate or perhaps Maine has substantially shifted to the right since 2018.

No

Im sure a 95% white state that is 60% rural that has a large conservative base is gonna keep electing democrats.

"Large conservative base" is an incredibly vague term, and white rural people in New England are not the same as white rural people elsewhere (though the extent to which that will remain true is up for debate).

[lfromnj]

Think it's a reasonably close presidential year, maybe Democrat wins by Obama 2012 like margins or slightly less. It's a gain of 3 or 4 seats for the Republicans(depending on the outcome in Florida). King retires in Maine, perhaps there is a good GOP candidate or perhaps Maine has substantially shifted to the right since 2018.

No

Im sure a 95% white state that is 60% rural that has a large conservative base is gonna keep electing democrats.

"Large conservative base" is an incredibly vague term, and white rural people in New England are not the same as white rural people elsewhere (though the extent to which that will remain true is up for debate).

They elected lepage with 40% of the vote. Besides vermont basically any other white group that heavy is not gonna keep being liberal.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

racist hicks

You like this phrase a lot, don't you?

[Skill and Chance]

Cruz almost surely loses, but so will Manchin (if he doesn't just retire) and probably one other seat in the Trump Midwest unless the presidential race is a Dem blowout.  IDK about Florida long term, but it is clearly moving right for the Trump era, so I wouldn't count on it flipping back.  MT should be no worse than a toss up.

[Mr.Phips]

Think it's a reasonably close presidential year, maybe Democrat wins by Obama 2012 like margins or slightly less. It's a gain of 3 or 4 seats for the Republicans(depending on the outcome in Florida). King retires in Maine, perhaps there is a good GOP candidate or perhaps Maine has substantially shifted to the right since 2018.

So Democrats are gonna start losing Michigan and Maine in Presidential races, but win Texas, Arizona, and Florida?  Interesting.

[Skill and Chance]

Think it's a reasonably close presidential year, maybe Democrat wins by Obama 2012 like margins or slightly less. It's a gain of 3 or 4 seats for the Republicans(depending on the outcome in Florida). King retires in Maine, perhaps there is a good GOP candidate or perhaps Maine has substantially shifted to the right since 2018.

So Democrats are gonna start losing Michigan and Maine in Presidential races, but win Texas, Arizona, and Florida?  Interesting.

It's plausible for 2024.  Not plausible for 2020.

[Figueira]

Think it's a reasonably close presidential year, maybe Democrat wins by Obama 2012 like margins or slightly less. It's a gain of 3 or 4 seats for the Republicans(depending on the outcome in Florida). King retires in Maine, perhaps there is a good GOP candidate or perhaps Maine has substantially shifted to the right since 2018.

So Democrats are gonna start losing Michigan and Maine in Presidential races, but win Texas, Arizona, and Florida?  Interesting.

Yeah, I could certainly see Sinema being a strong incumbent who wins re-election, but I can't see Maine, Michigan, Texas, and Florida all trading places at the same time.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Everyone is forgetting to add 4 Dem seats for DC and PR statehood.

[MT Treasurer]

This far out?

[Former President tack50]

Everyone is forgetting to add 4 Dem seats for DC and PR statehood.

Assuming both DC and PR have seats in this Senate class, the DC one is obviously Titanium D.

The PR one will depend on whether they keep their old party system after statehood (Popular Democratic vs New Progressive) or not.

If they switch to Dems vs Republicans (like the rest of the US) it's Safe D. If they keep their old party system, it's a tossup from the Puerto Rico point of view (too much change makes it hard to predict I guess), but lean or likely D from the US point of view (any Popular Democratic senator will go with Democrats while the New Progressives are split if I understand correctly).

[lfromnj]

Ted cruz should be removed from electoral politics.
Give him a SCOTUS or at the very least a circuit seat. He gets confirmed easily.

[Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins]

All others of safe seats that wouldn't result in a change
Safe R:
WV [R+1] Manchin almost retired this cycle and the state seems to only be becoming more Republican

Lean R:
OH [R+2]: The state is moving more to the GOP. Brown only won by 6 against a candidate who had little money and almost no support from the national GOP
TX: Would move to likely with someone other than Cruz running
Tilt R:
Florida: Scott seems to have a knack for winning close races, the Florida Democratic party is incompetent.
Tossup: PA, MI- I think both these states will be open in 2024 and both states have the possibility of being competitive and thus there senate results will closely follow the presidential ones.
MT: Not a swing state but the state has a decent Dem bench and the state continues to be fine electing democrats down ballot. Increasing partisanship makes this more difficult as time passes.
Tilt D:- Same as above but Baldwin appears to be a decently strong incumbent
Lean D:
 MN I think MN is trending Republican but not sure if it will be there by 2024. Klobuchar is a very strong incumbent. With her I think this is likely D without I would put this as Tilt.
Lean D: Arizona
Safe D: Nevada- This one isn't coming back to the GOP anytime soon.