Cleanish Election Rigging in Virginia with 2020 Population Estimates

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Here is a clean-ish map to rig Congressional elections in Virginia, drawn using 2020 population estimates. It generally tries to avoid splitting counties much more than is necessary. Except, I guess, for Fairfax County, which is split into 5 pieces. But hey, what can you do? It turns out that this is necessitated by Communities of Interest (see district descriptions below - it turns out that it is necessary to preserve our Civil War heritage and other such things, which surely the Supreme Court, in its wisdom, will recognize is a legitimate state interest with a rational basis).

There is only a single safe Republican Congressional District. This is unfortunate for the Republicans, but one must ask oneself the question, who is to blame? Obviously they are, because they chose to self-pack into one Congressional District. If they wanted to have their votes matter, maybe they should have thought of that before they self-packed? They also have the option to move to North Carolina if they prefer to have elections that are rigged in favor of Republicans instead of in favor of Democrats. So it is really all a matter of individual choice and self-determination, when you look at it that way. And who are we to tell the voters what to do?

Anyway, other than that single safe Republican district, there are 9 Dem or Dem-leaning districts and there is one slightly R leaning but competitive district.







VA-01 (D+4.0): The Potomac District - Sadly, in previous rounds of redistricting, the Potomac River bank has been split into multiple districts. But now, Alexandria is united with the tidewater. Now you can go down a boat from the DC area out into the Chesapeake without having to switch into a different Congressional District. Up-river is finally united with down-river. So this is obviously a great community of interest.

VA-02 (D+1.7): Virginia Beach/Norfolk Military/Navy District - Not exactly safe D, but is a major improvement over the current R+3 version. Almost all the various military bases in the area, and also basically all of the Chesapeake coast, are in this district, so that must mean that it is all about the Communities of Interest. You can't really make it much more Dem without reducing the minority populations in VA-03 and VA-04, and I kept them majority minority even with 2010 race data. With 2020 data, if you wanted to make VA-03 and VA-04 only be barely majority minority, you could improve VA-02 a bit further.

VA-03 (D+5.9): Southern VA Majority Minority district. Community of Interest of Non-White people who live in the Southern Part of Virginia near the NC border, and have to defend themselves against the Heathen Republican gerrymander of North Carolina. So this is also sort of another Borderlands district as well as being Majority-Minority. So many Communities of Interest.

VA-04 (D+5.6): Richmond and Nearby Rural Areas Majority Minority District. Community of Interest of Non-White people who live in the greater Richmond area and exurbs.

VA-05: (R+2.6): Charlottesville-Lynchburg-Roanake District - This district unites communities of interest of these small cities together. It is a Community of Interest because they are all small urban areas, so they belong together rather than with nearby rural areas, since rural areas are different sorts of communities to small cities. It also unites three Universities - the University of Virginia, Liberty University, and Virginia Tech, so it is also a Community of Interest of Higher Education. This is the one district that is not completely safe R, but also leans a bit R. Spanberger doesn't need Charlottesville (she will be just fine with a purely Richmond Suburbs district), and giving her Charlottesville would be an affront against Communities of Interest since the Richmond suburbs are a different Community from Charlottesville. In addition to the Communities of Interest that are brought together, is would be a shame to just completely waste the Dem votes in the Roanoake-Blacksburg area in an outright Republican vote sink. It could be winnable for Dems in the right year with a good candidate. Although it still leans R, it is much more Dem than the current R+6 version. It is possible to make this district more Dem if you make the lines more erose, but this is about as good as you can do with relatively "clean" lines.

VA-06 (D+4.1): The Arlington Outvotes the Shenandoah District - unites the communities of interest of Arlington with its kindred spirit, the Shenandoah valley down to Harrisonburg. This also unites many areas of Virginia that border with other states (Maryland and West Virginia), so it is also a Community of Interest of Borderlands.

VA-07 (D+2.6): The Spanberger Richmond Burbs District - Much more Dem (and more Dem trending) than the current R+6 version. Unites the Community of Interest of the Richmond suburbs. The fact that this makes the district more Dem is just a coincidence that comes from respecting communities of interest.

VA-08 (D+4.2): The Interstate 95 District - Now you can drive along Interstate 95 all the way from Fairfax county to the outskirts of Richmond while staying in or at least very nearby to a single Congressional District. Finally unites the Community of Interest of I-95 that has been horrendously split in previous maps, despite its importance to the community as a major transportation artery.

VA-09 (R+23.9): The (South)-West Virginia District - Republicans are self-packed into this district in South-West Virginia. This allows all the other districts in VA to be much less Republican, and thereby disenfranchises Republican voters and rigs the elections for Congress in Virginia. But hey, what can we do? It is not our fault that the racist rural hicks all choose to self-pack into the same Congressional District. It is just unavoidable, and it is completely impossible to draw a map that would give fair representation, much like how all the Democrats in North Carolina choose to self-pack into 3 Congressional districts. What a shame.

VA-10 (D+4.2): The Fairfax-Loudoun-Shenandoah National Park - Unites the community of interest of parts of NoVa with its kindred spirit, the Shenandoah National Park and some nearby rural areas. Finally the NoVa suburbanites can travel for a nice day in the National Park without having to leave their own Congressional District.

VA-11 (D+4.2): The Civil War Re-Enactment District - For too long, we have buried our history by dividing it into different Congressional districts. With this map, that ends and communities of interest are united in a district that will preserve our Civil War heritage. This district re-enacts the march of the Union Army down from Falls Church to Manassas/Bull Run at the start of the Civil War, and also the later March of the Union Army under Ulysses S. Grant in the Overland Campaign of 1864 down just about to the Battle of The Wilderness. Unfortunately, the district runs out of population and can't make it all the way down to Petersburg/Richmond/Appomattox etc, but what can you do?



Note that VA as a whole is D+1 and it is considered pretty hard for Republicans to win statewide in Virginia these days. So although all these D+4 seats may be theoretically winnable for Republicans under the right conditions, they are significantly harder to win than winning VA statewide. And keep in mind also that the VA-10 district where Comstock just got blanched was only D+1 (but Clinton +9).

Insofar as the Clinton vote (and the trends in subsequent elections like VA-GOV 2017 and VA-SEN 2018) is more important than the 2012 Obama vote going forward, the PVIs generally understate how Dem the Dem districts really are.

Personally, it is OK with me if a Republican wins a D+4 district every once in a while. If they are winning a district like that, then probably they substantively actually did something or other to deserve to win it, and the Dems have screwed something up pretty badly so that maybe Republicans deserve. In this very limited sense, I guess the map does not completely rig elections in Virginia totally and completely. Only a lot.

And if Dems fix whatever they have screwed up, they should be able to win back any of the D+4 (and trending Dem) districts that they might temporarily lose for a cycle here and there.

[lfromnj]

lol those are not clean lines

Nova to Virginia beach lol. Anyway that is a brutal gerrymander. I hope Rs redistrict Texas soon anyway. Anyway ik Northam won't do this because
A. because some black legislator wants a 80+% black district to make his district titanium D.
B. moderate hero.

[nerd73]

lol those are not clean lines

[Brittain33]

If Fairfax County looks like a Pride flag it's not "clean" lines.

[DC Al Fine]

If Fairfax County looks like a Pride flag it's not "clean" lines.

Or that yellow district that goes in a thin line to connect towns without covering any much GOP rural area... It's tough to draw a good gerrymander without chops.

[lfromnj]

yeah 9 Lean d 1 lean R and 1 Safe R isn't that great a map anyway. Just go for 9-2 or 8-3

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Here is an alternative for weak-at-the-knees Democrats who do want to rig elections in Virginia, but are too scared of their own shadow to do the job of election rigging properly (i.e. who are uncomfortable with NoVa looking like a pride flag). The North Carolina Republican Party would laugh at this lack of resolve.

Anyway, this map has 9 districts that are at least Dem leaning, and even the weaker ones should be safer than they appear in terms of PVI because of the Trump-era trend to Dems in NoVa, the Richmond burbs, and the Norfolk area. So the Clinton/Northam/Kaine numbers should generally be better than the PVI indicates. However, it is nonetheless more susceptible to possible risk of being a dummymander than the previous map. That is what you get for being weak-at-the-knees.

And it has these 9 districts that are at least Dem leaning even while sacrificing the poor Democrats in the Roanoake area in a GOP vote sink, and even while having 2 districts staying entirely within NoVa (including VA-08 that combines Arlington and Alexandria, and is a horribly wasteful D+19 Dem vote sink).

How does it do that, you might ask? It conjures into existence, from out of nowhere, an additional Dem leaning seat based in the Richmond suburbs, as well as Spanberger's seat. This seat does not go into NoVa.







VA-01: D+1.5 --- This is the new seat conjured into existence from out of nothing.

VA-02: D+3.2 --- Luria is sured up quite a bit, significantly more than the previous map actually.

VA-03: D+7.2 --- Tidewater-Hampton Roads Majority-Minority district. This does take in some minority majority parts of Prince William County, but this is just the outskirts of NoVa, as compared to the previous map with districts reaching all the way in to Arlington/Alexandria.

VA-04: D+4.0 --- Majority-Minority district for Richmond and areas to the South of Richmond.

VA-05: R+16.5 --- Sad GOP vote sink.

VA-06: D+2.2 --- NoVa-Shenandoah District. Sadly, although it does extend into Fairfax County it doesn't reach into Arlington, so it can only be so Democratic (but note that it is still easily more Democratic than the current D+1 VA-10). You might think that Comstock would be a good candidate in this district... However, the parts of Fairfax County that are in this district are mostly NOT from the VA-10 in which she was previously elected. And in addition, this district includes more Conservative areas where Comstock would lose a Republican primary. Because the district includes more heavily Dem parts of NoVa and also more of the Shenandoah than the current VA-10, it is likely that the GOP nominee will be someone too Conservative for NoVa from the Shenandoah. And then NoVa will out-vote the Shenandoah in the General Election. And this pattern would grow worse over time as there is more population growth in NoVa, further tipping the scales. So Comstock would probably have an easier time being elected statewide than winning this district.

VA-07: D+1.2 --- The Spanberger district. This version includes pretty much all of the parts of the Richmond suburbs that are in her current district, includes none of the actual city of Richmond (which is split between VA-04 and VA-01) and goes to Charlottesville, thereby dooming Roanaoake into a GOP vote sink. It is possible to re-arrange territory a bit between VA-01, VA-03, and VA-07 and make all of them a bit more compact, but that means that Spanberger's base in the Richmond suburbs is split more and probably one of the district ends up a bit more winnable for Rs. So it might be possible to get the configuration a bit better, but this is probably not far from the best achievable.

VA-08: D+18.6 --- The horrible, wasteful Dem NoVa vote sink, including all of both Arlington and Alexandria. What a shameful district.

VA-09: R+16.8 --- Inefficient GOP vote sink trapping all the poor Dems in the Roanoake area.

VA-10: D+3.9 --- The second district entirely within NoVa, after VA-08. This includes outer parts of Fairfax and Loudon/Prince William.

VA-11: D+3.9 --- Includes a pretty good chunk of Fairfax and also goes in to includes some more rural territory, but all further north than Fredricksburg/Charlottesville/Harrisnburg. So although this district is not a pure NoVa suburbs district, it can probably be reasonably still called a Northern Virginia district.


The biggest concerns with this map are that maybe VA-01 and/or VA-07 may be winnable for Republicans (but still Dem leaning). However, the trend to Dems should be strong in both of these districts, and . And, even if Rs managed to win both VA-01 and VA-07 for a cycle or two, that would still be a 7-4 Dem delegation, the same as the current one. In a massive GOP wave year, one or two of the other districts could in theory fall, but those should be Dem enough that they would snap back probably in the next cycle, as long as Dems run a good candidate. And the trends to Dems should be strong in all those other districts.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

OK, nevermind. I think I figured out a better way to do NoVa. It looks cleaner this way, and also the PVIs are better. This only changes the 4 NoVa districts, and keeps everything else the same.



VA-06: D+3.8, was D+2.2 in version just above
VA-08: D+14.5, was D+18.6 in version just above
VA-10: D+2.7, was D+3.9 in version just above
VA-11: D+6.5, was D+3.9 in version just above


You can also see pretty clearly that it would be very easy to give VA-11 just a little slice of Fauqier County, and that could be used to sure up both VA-10 (and maybe VA-06 a bit also) further if it was thought that is needed at all.

This looks to me like a pretty good roadmap for Dems to draw a 9-2 map of VA. Basically smooth out the lines a bit and maybe tweak a bit with careful attention to any ways that the Clinton/Northam/Kaine numbers deviate from PVI (since that data is not in DRA), and I think you basically have pretty much the best Dem Gerrymander of VA that you can make (provided that you are not willing to fully spaghettimander NoVa or to rescue the Dems in Roanoake).

And provided that Dems win all the seats they are supposed to win, you get a pretty nice contiguous east-west division on the overall House map. It looks like both the Dem zone and the GOP zone have about equal land mass, though of course the Dem zone has 4.5 times as much population:



Can anyone make any improvements to this basic sort of outline?

[Bidenworth2020]

OK, nevermind. I think I figured out a better way to do NoVa. It looks cleaner this way, and also the PVIs are better. This only changes the 4 NoVa districts, and keeps everything else the same.



VA-06: D+3.8, was D+2.2 in version just above
VA-08: D+14.5, was D+18.6 in version just above
VA-10: D+2.7, was D+3.9 in version just above
VA-11: D+6.5, was D+3.9 in version just above


You can also see pretty clearly that it would be very easy to give VA-11 just a little slice of Fauqier County, and that could be used to sure up both VA-10 (and maybe VA-06 a bit also) further if it was thought that is needed at all.

This looks to me like a pretty good roadmap for Dems to draw a 9-2 map of VA. Basically smooth out the lines a bit and maybe tweak a bit with careful attention to any ways that the Clinton/Northam/Kaine numbers deviate from PVI (since that data is not in DRA), and I think you basically have pretty much the best Dem Gerrymander of VA that you can make (provided that you are not willing to fully spaghettimander NoVa or to rescue the Dems in Roanoake).

Can anyone make any improvements to this basic sort of outline?

umm... the purple district isn't contiguous, for one.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

OK, nevermind. I think I figured out a better way to do NoVa. It looks cleaner this way, and also the PVIs are better. This only changes the 4 NoVa districts, and keeps everything else the same.



VA-06: D+3.8, was D+2.2 in version just above
VA-08: D+14.5, was D+18.6 in version just above
VA-10: D+2.7, was D+3.9 in version just above
VA-11: D+6.5, was D+3.9 in version just above


You can also see pretty clearly that it would be very easy to give VA-11 just a little slice of Fauqier County, and that could be used to sure up both VA-10 (and maybe VA-06 a bit also) further if it was thought that is needed at all.

This looks to me like a pretty good roadmap for Dems to draw a 9-2 map of VA. Basically smooth out the lines a bit and maybe tweak a bit with careful attention to any ways that the Clinton/Northam/Kaine numbers deviate from PVI (since that data is not in DRA), and I think you basically have pretty much the best Dem Gerrymander of VA that you can make (provided that you are not willing to fully spaghettimander NoVa or to rescue the Dems in Roanoake).

Can anyone make any improvements to this basic sort of outline?

umm... the purple district isn't contiguous, for one.

That is only because the Quantico military base precinct is huge, and it has to go in either VA-06 or VA-03 in DRA. This is what it would look like if you:



That looks awkward, so I gave it to VA-06. What you would do in the actual map is split it in half right along Interstate 95, and give the part on the east of I-95 to VA-03, and the part on the west of I-95 to VA-06.

In general there are also a couple of other places where the map looks a bit rough around the edges because of precinct boundaries. If you want to make it look a bit better aesthetically, then you just cut the precincts to smooth out the lines a bit. That makes the elections look slightly less rigged, while in reality still being just as rigged.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

And here's an example of how you can nudge up the PVIs by giving VA-11 even just a teeny little bit of Fauquier County if desired (VA-06 also gets a few more Shenandoah precincts from VA-10 near Harrisonburg):



That improves VA-10 from D+2.7 to D+3.5, and improves VA-06 from D+3.8 to D+3.9, while bringing VA-11 down from D+6.5 to D+5.5.

[Bidenworth2020]

And here's an example of how you can nudge up the PVIs by giving VA-11 even just a teeny little bit of Fauquier County if desired (VA-06 also gets a few more Shenandoah precincts from VA-10 near Harrisonburg):



That improves VA-10 from D+2.7 to D+3.5, and improves VA-06 from D+3.8 to D+3.9, while bringing VA-11 down from D+6.5 to D+5.5.

I would think that light green district could be spread out more? seems to pack more Dems then it needs to.