Let's gerrymander New York in 2022

[Brittain33]

Now that Dems have the trifecta in New York and basically zero good government impulses, there's a possibility for Dems to draw their own map for the first time since I don't know when. What should they do? Some ideas...

• Merge NY-23 (Tom Reed) and NY-27 (Chris Collins) into a single Republican vote sink
• OR unpack NY-26 some to make NY-27 more of a swing district and NY-23 into a vote sink that takes some of Katko's Republican turf
  
• Move Tompkins County (Ithaca) into NY-24 to give Dems a higher floor against Katko or into NY-22 to shore up Tenney; the latter may be a waste in the long run
• Redistrict around Brooklyn and Staten Island to crack Republican communities and make all districts safe for Dems
• If possible, create a single Republican vote sink on Long Island to make Dems more competitive in the neighboring district
  

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Now that Dems have the trifecta in New York and basically zero good government impulses, there's a possibility for Dems to draw their own map for the first time since I don't know when. What should they do? Some ideas...

• Merge NY-23 (Tom Reed) and NY-27 (Chris Collins) into a single Republican vote sink
• OR unpack NY-26 some to make NY-27 more of a swing district and NY-23 into a vote sink that takes some of Katko's Republican turf
  
• Move Tompkins County (Ithaca) into NY-24 to give Dems a higher floor against Katko or into NY-22 to shore up Tenney; the latter may be a waste in the long run
• Redistrict around Brooklyn and Staten Island to crack Republican communities and make all districts safe for Dems
• If possible, create a single Republican vote sink on Long Island to make Dems more competitive in the neighboring district
  

If Brindisi wins, he's only a rental as his district will go. 

[Brittain33]

If Brindisi wins, he's only a rental as his district will go. 

Intriguing. Onondaga+Cortland+Tompkins+Broome = 800,000 people, which would make for one very student-heavy district that Katko might not be able to hold.

The geography isn't great but Reed's district can go up and over Onondaga if it needs to.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Dems ought to baconmander basically every single district into Manhattan/Brooklyn/Queens/Bronx (except for the handful of areas where a safe Dem seat can be drawn without that, such as Albany area, Buffalo area, and probably Rochester area.

Short of that, however, here is a 24-2 map by PVI with 2020 population estimates. It could benefit from polishing, and in particular it needs careful attention to the differences between Obama 2012 and Trump 2016, since the PVIs may be different after another Trump election in 2020. But I think this can be a reasonable starting point for consideration.

It should be very clear that Republicans have made gerrymandering/election rigging a blood sport, and blood demands blood. Any considerations of quaint ideas such as "compactness" or any other such silliness must be sacrificed at the altar of North Carolina and Ohio (among others).









NY-01:    D+4.8
NY-02:    D+5.0
NY-03:    D+8.5
NY-04:    D+8.5
NY-05:    D+9.8
NY-06:    D+12.2
NY-07:    D+42.6
NY-08:    D+15.1
NY-09:    D+24.1
NY-10:    D+32.1
NY-11:    D+16.1
NY-12:    D+25.0
NY-13:    D+38.7
NY-14:    D+23.3
NY-15:    D+44.3
NY-16:    D+13.8
NY-17:    D+6.5
NY-18:    D+7.3
NY-19:    D+5.9
NY-20:    D+6.0
NY-21:    R+14.3
NY-22:    D+6.2
NY-23:    R+16.0
NY-24:    D+6.2
NY-25:    D+6.3
NY-26:    D+6.2


At the same time as passing a map along these general sorts of lines, NY should draw an alternative fair/neutral map and pass a law that says that if all other states, including states like Ohio and North Carolina, etc agree to pass fair neutral maps under the same overarching framework, then NY will automatically immediately implement the fair/neutral alternative map for the next election, mid-decade.

All other Democratic states should do exactly the same thing, including California abolishing their commission for Congressional districts (keep it for state legislature) and drawing a 53-0 Dem gerrymander (or whatever close to that is possible, maybe conceding 2 or 3 seats to the Republicans).

Also, as long as the Senate remains rigged in favor Republicans, Democrats should have no qualms whatsoever about rigging the House in favor of Democrats. After the Republican party is made to feel the pain of being permanently locked out of the House, then hopefully all Americans can come together in good faith to implement fundamental comprehensive electoral form, to institute a system of actual representative democracy in America.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

If Brindisi wins, he's only a rental as his district will go. 

Brindisi will be just fine in the D+6.16 monstrosity of NY-22 that I drew for him (the light brown district including Utica, Binghampton, Ithaca, part of the Finger Lakes area, and part of Syracuse).

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

If Brindisi wins, he's only a rental as his district will go. 

Brindisi will be just fine in the D+6.16 monstrosity of NY-22 that I drew for him (the light brown district including Utica, Binghampton, Ithaca, part of the Finger Lakes area, and part of Syracuse).

There's no way to keep him around as geographically, with NY losing a district...his is the most expendable as he's not locked into a significant Metro Area...and not a corner district either.

[Oryxslayer]

Old NY-22 is basically DOA. Its the obvious seat to cut. But Brindisi will be fine if he wins in 2020, dems already want to kill Katko if he is still around then. Giving Syracuse custody of Ithaca instead of sinking it into the Southern Tier is step one, the pairing the new seat to Utica is step two. Seat is D+8-9, thats too dem for even Katko to handle.

[lfromnj]

Old NY-22 is basically DOA. Its the obvious seat to cut. But Brindisi will be fine if he wins in 2020, dems already want to kill Katko if he is still around then. Giving Syracuse custody of Ithaca instead of sinking it into the Southern Tier is step one, the pairing the new seat to Utica is step two. Seat is D+8-9, thats too dem for even Katko to handle.

IMO dems should just make his district more republican. Try to make it a vote sink.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

we ought to gerrymander a 26-0 map.

[Oryxslayer]

Old NY-22 is basically DOA. Its the obvious seat to cut. But Brindisi will be fine if he wins in 2020, dems already want to kill Katko if he is still around then. Giving Syracuse custody of Ithaca instead of sinking it into the Southern Tier is step one, the pairing the new seat to Utica is step two. Seat is D+8-9, thats too dem for even Katko to handle.

IMO dems should just make his district more republican. Try to make it a vote sink.

If so, then they just grab Syracuse and Join the city via tentacle to Utica, Ithaca, and maybe Binghampton. There way too many lost dem votes in the region right now not to create another safe dem seat.

[Tintrlvr]

Everyone seems to be forgetting that, back in 2014, New York passed a constitutional amendment establishing an independent redistricting commission, effective for 2020.

https://ballotpedia.org/New_York_Redistricting_Commission_Amendment,_Proposal_1_(2014)

The Democrats can technically still gerrymander if they reject the commission's maps (the amendment specifically created an out to allow the legislature to reject them), but it seems like doing so would be politically difficult.

That said, a fair map probably pairs Syracuse and Ithaca anyway.

[Torie]

Now that Dems have the trifecta in New York and basically zero good government impulses, there's a possibility for Dems to draw their own map for the first time since I don't know when. What should they do? Some ideas...

• Merge NY-23 (Tom Reed) and NY-27 (Chris Collins) into a single Republican vote sink
• OR unpack NY-26 some to make NY-27 more of a swing district and NY-23 into a vote sink that takes some of Katko's Republican turf
  
• Move Tompkins County (Ithaca) into NY-24 to give Dems a higher floor against Katko or into NY-22 to shore up Tenney; the latter may be a waste in the long run
• Redistrict around Brooklyn and Staten Island to crack Republican communities and make all districts safe for Dems
• If possible, create a single Republican vote sink on Long Island to make Dems more competitive in the neighboring district
  

In addition to the above, the law in NY now requires a bipartisan vote to draw the lines (there are some parameters, but they are vague enough that in the end it is really about securing a majority vote from both parties), per a constitutional amendment that was passed. So this speculation won't be happening, unless a court does it after deadlock.

[Oryxslayer]

Now that Dems have the trifecta in New York and basically zero good government impulses, there's a possibility for Dems to draw their own map for the first time since I don't know when. What should they do? Some ideas...

• Merge NY-23 (Tom Reed) and NY-27 (Chris Collins) into a single Republican vote sink
• OR unpack NY-26 some to make NY-27 more of a swing district and NY-23 into a vote sink that takes some of Katko's Republican turf
  
• Move Tompkins County (Ithaca) into NY-24 to give Dems a higher floor against Katko or into NY-22 to shore up Tenney; the latter may be a waste in the long run
• Redistrict around Brooklyn and Staten Island to crack Republican communities and make all districts safe for Dems
• If possible, create a single Republican vote sink on Long Island to make Dems more competitive in the neighboring district
  

In addition to the above, the law in NY now requires a bipartisan vote to draw the lines (there are some parameters, but they are vague enough that in the end it is really about securing a majority vote from both parties), per a constitutional amendment that was passed. So this speculation won't be happening, unless a court does it after deadlock.

Ehhh... dems still hold the advantage in that situation. State legislators have shown time and time again that they would trade their security in favor of colleges misfortune. With overstretched Rep seats in the senate, there will definitely be some parochialism. There is also the question of what Reps want from map. I suspect there would be quite a lot of pressure from Federal Republicans to trade some unfair lines in some areas to protect NY-21 and Stefanik's chances at congressional power.

Or both sides will come together and draw an incumbent protection plan, something commonly done when you need to work together to pass maps. NY's plan from 2000-2010 was one of these originally, until it collapsed mid decade.

[Boobs]

Buffalo-Monroe County - D+6
Niagara - R+5
Rochester - D+7
Elmira - R+11
Ithaca-Rome-Binghampton - R+0.8 -> R+1
Syracuse-Watertown - D+4
Plattsborough-Saratoga Springs R+1.64 -> R+2
Albany-Schenectady D+3
Kingston-Troy - D+1.35 -> D+1

[Oryxslayer]

Buffalo-Monroe County - D+6
Niagara - R+5
Rochester - D+7
Elmira - R+11
Ithaca-Rome-Binghampton - R+0.8 -> R+1
Syracuse-Watertown - D+4
Plattsborough-Saratoga Springs R+1.64 -> R+2
Albany-Schenectady D+3
Kingston-Troy - D+1.35 -> D+1

This is still 2010 data. 2020, there will only be 8 upstaters. A rough 2020 projection is available for download in another thread on this board titled something like " 2020 redistricting DRA."

[Boobs]

Buffalo-Monroe County - D+6
Niagara - R+5
Rochester - D+7
Elmira - R+11
Ithaca-Rome-Binghampton - R+0.8 -> R+1
Syracuse-Watertown - D+4
Plattsborough-Saratoga Springs R+1.64 -> R+2
Albany-Schenectady D+3
Kingston-Troy - D+1.35 -> D+1

This is still 2010 data. 2020, there will only be 8 upstaters. A rough 2020 projection is available for download in another thread on this board titled something like " 2020 redistricting DRA."

Yes - I forgot to say this was an old map I made when DRA still worked for me, which it no longer does.

[NewYorkExpress]

If I were drawing the map, I'd carve up Peter King's district between Kathleen Rice and Lee Zeldin's districts.

King's home ends up in Rice's district, but the majority of the district's territory ends up in Zeldin's district, forcing him to run against either a strong incumbent Democrat in hostile territory, or another incumbent Republican.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

If I were drawing the map, I'd carve up Peter King's district between Kathleen Rice and Lee Zeldin's districts.

King's home ends up in Rice's district, but the majority of the district's territory ends up in Zeldin's district, forcing him to run against either a strong incumbent Democrat in hostile territory, or another incumbent Republican.

No thanks, I think we should crack Long Island entirely and use area from New York City to remove all of the Republican Districts there.

[NewYorkExpress]

If I were drawing the map, I'd carve up Peter King's district between Kathleen Rice and Lee Zeldin's districts.

King's home ends up in Rice's district, but the majority of the district's territory ends up in Zeldin's district, forcing him to run against either a strong incumbent Democrat in hostile territory, or another incumbent Republican.

No thanks, I think we should crack Long Island entirely and use area from New York City to remove all of the Republican Districts there.

You realize pretty much every member of the New York City Congressional Delegation would object to that, right?

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

If I were drawing the map, I'd carve up Peter King's district between Kathleen Rice and Lee Zeldin's districts.

King's home ends up in Rice's district, but the majority of the district's territory ends up in Zeldin's district, forcing him to run against either a strong incumbent Democrat in hostile territory, or another incumbent Republican.

No thanks, I think we should crack Long Island entirely and use area from New York City to remove all of the Republican Districts there.

You realize pretty much every member of the New York City Congressional Delegation would object to that, right?

I do not care about parochial objections in the slightest, lets just win more seats for the Democrats.

[DC Al Fine]

If I were drawing the map, I'd carve up Peter King's district between Kathleen Rice and Lee Zeldin's districts.

King's home ends up in Rice's district, but the majority of the district's territory ends up in Zeldin's district, forcing him to run against either a strong incumbent Democrat in hostile territory, or another incumbent Republican.

No thanks, I think we should crack Long Island entirely and use area from New York City to remove all of the Republican Districts there.

You realize pretty much every member of the New York City Congressional Delegation would object to that, right?

I do not care about parochial objections in the slightest, lets just win more seats for the Democrats.

You can't just ignore the practical realities of politics.