Which rep Senate seats Dems should focus on in 2018 ?
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  Which rep Senate seats Dems should focus on in 2018 ?
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Question: Which rep Senate seats Dems should focus on in 2018 ? (max 4)
#1
Iowa
 
#2
Maine
 
#3
North Carolina
 
#4
South Carolina
 
#5
Georgia
 
#6
West Virginia
 
#7
Kentucky
 
#8
Tennessee
 
#9
Mississippi (assuming reps win the run-off)
 
#10
Arkansas
 
#11
Louisiana
 
#12
Texas
 
#13
Oklahoma
 
#14
Kansas
 
#15
Nebraska
 
#16
South Dakota
 
#17
Montana
 
#18
Idaho
 
#19
Wyoming
 
#20
Colorado
 
#21
Arizona
 
#22
Alaska
 
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Total Voters: 59

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Author Topic: Which rep Senate seats Dems should focus on in 2018 ?  (Read 1572 times)
ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #25 on: November 13, 2018, 06:26:57 PM »

Tier one: Competitive

#1: Colorado
#2: Maine, this is definitely an underrated pickup opportunity for D's even if Collins runs and wins a primary again.
#3: Arizona, should be competitive no matter what.
#4: North Carolin

Tier two: Worth trying

#5: Georgia
#6: Iowa

Tier three: Longshots

#7: Texas
#8: Montana
#9: Alaska

Everything else is safe.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #26 on: November 13, 2018, 06:32:33 PM »

Colorado is the obvious one and should offset Alabama.

Maine is a decent opportunity for Ds though Collins would be favored, and it won’t be free regardless in a presidential year.

To gain the senate Dems would need at least two others. The possibilities for gains would be North Carolina, Arizona, and Iowa principally. Cornyn won’t be challenged in Texas and Daines would beat Bullock in a senate race anyway. Georgia isn’t going to elect a Dem over Perdue.

So basically Dems need 2/3 of North Carolina, Arizona, and Iowa in my estimation to win the senate. They have a good shot at North Carolina and Arizona, though Iowa is probably a hill too far. Maine is also a sketchy pickup given Collins.

I think Rs hold senate even if Trump is losing in a Romney style manner, basically. And I think that is unlikely in the first place - in a D+7.5 environment Michigan elected Stabenow by 6.5, and Evers by less than 1.5. Trump is the incumbent president and so will be very tough to beat in those states - I think he will be tough to beat in Pennsylvania as well. If Georgia, Texas, or Arizona had a few more years of demographic change I could buy D chances there, but as things stand I honestly think Ds need to win the Rust Belt to have a chance.

Trump likely increased his advantage in MI and WI, but look at PA and AZ, and NH/ME at least didn't get any worse.  From there, they only need one of NC/GA/FL, and 2 of the 3 clearly moved their way (the GOP statewide PV win in NC is due to an uncontested CD).
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Mr. Smith
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« Reply #27 on: November 13, 2018, 06:44:32 PM »

1. Colorado
2. Arizona
3. Georgia
4. Montana/North Carolina
6. Maine
7. Texas /Iowa
9. Alaska
10. Louisiana

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Tintrlvr
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« Reply #28 on: November 13, 2018, 07:09:47 PM »

Maine is a fool's errand unless Collins retires or is primaried. In order of most to least likely to flip:

1. Colorado
[2.] Maine*
2. Arizona
3. Iowa
4. North Carolina
5. Montana
6. Texas
7. Georgia
8. Alaska
9. Maine**
10. South Carolina
11. [Everything else - all Safe R barring something very surprising]

*If Collins retires or loses her primary.
**If Collins runs for reelection, as she probably will.

If I had to basically guess-forecast from this far out, Democrats gain Colorado, Iowa, Arizona and North Carolina and lose Alabama for a net of D+3 and a tied Senate.
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Rhenna
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« Reply #29 on: November 13, 2018, 07:13:35 PM »

1. Colorado
2. Maine if Collins retires
3. North Carolina
4. Montana with Bullock
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TheBeardedOne
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« Reply #30 on: November 14, 2018, 06:12:33 PM »

https://www.vox.com/2018/11/12/18086302/arizona-senate-race-martha-mcsally-kyrsten-sinema

Here is the link that says Kyl can leave before 2020 and give the seat to McSally. Kyl retires in Jan 2019 and Ducey appoints McSally

Ducey is going to appoint himself.
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ON Progressive
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« Reply #31 on: November 14, 2018, 06:14:11 PM »

https://www.vox.com/2018/11/12/18086302/arizona-senate-race-martha-mcsally-kyrsten-sinema

Here is the link that says Kyl can leave before 2020 and give the seat to McSally. Kyl retires in Jan 2019 and Ducey appoints McSally

Ducey is going to appoint himself.

Not if Hobbs wins the Secretary of State race.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #32 on: November 14, 2018, 06:51:29 PM »

https://www.vox.com/2018/11/12/18086302/arizona-senate-race-martha-mcsally-kyrsten-sinema

Here is the link that says Kyl can leave before 2020 and give the seat to McSally. Kyl retires in Jan 2019 and Ducey appoints McSally

Ducey is going to appoint himself.

Not if Hobbs wins the Secretary of State race.

Which is basically why im keeping AZ senate as Lean D 2020 coz Kelli Ward has the most name rec and will win the primary.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #33 on: November 14, 2018, 06:55:33 PM »

https://www.vox.com/2018/11/12/18086302/arizona-senate-race-martha-mcsally-kyrsten-sinema

Here is the link that says Kyl can leave before 2020 and give the seat to McSally. Kyl retires in Jan 2019 and Ducey appoints McSally

Ducey is going to appoint himself.

Not if Hobbs wins the Secretary of State race.

Which is basically why im keeping AZ senate as Lean D 2020 coz Kelli Ward has the most name rec and will win the primary.

I don't think Ward will win. McSally nuked her pretty easily, and her popularity has only gone down since then with her botched handling of McCain's death.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #34 on: November 14, 2018, 06:57:24 PM »

https://www.vox.com/2018/11/12/18086302/arizona-senate-race-martha-mcsally-kyrsten-sinema

Here is the link that says Kyl can leave before 2020 and give the seat to McSally. Kyl retires in Jan 2019 and Ducey appoints McSally

Ducey is going to appoint himself.

Not if Hobbs wins the Secretary of State race.

Which is basically why im keeping AZ senate as Lean D 2020 coz Kelli Ward has the most name rec and will win the primary.

I don't think Ward will win. McSally nuked her pretty easily, and her popularity has only gone down since then with her botched handling of McCain's death.

Its not like a solid Lean D but closer to a gun to the head choice anyway but I still think some crazy gets in by saying LOOK WHAT HAPPENED to the last moderate person. We need a True Conservative TM(aka ruben gallego or Grant Woods)
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lfromnj
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« Reply #35 on: November 14, 2018, 07:09:13 PM »

https://www.vox.com/2018/11/12/18086302/arizona-senate-race-martha-mcsally-kyrsten-sinema

Here is the link that says Kyl can leave before 2020 and give the seat to McSally. Kyl retires in Jan 2019 and Ducey appoints McSally

Ducey is going to appoint himself.

Not if Hobbs wins the Secretary of State race.

Which is basically why im keeping AZ senate as Lean D 2020 coz Kelli Ward has the most name rec and will win the primary.

I don't think Ward will win. McSally nuked her pretty easily, and her popularity has only gone down since then with her botched handling of McCain's death.

Republicans really do have no one else(provided Hobbs win the SOS race, keeping Ducey at bay). Kimberly Yee is someone with a future but she was just elected. Mark Brnovich had an embarrassingly close reelection scare. McSally I guess, but she's on track to get less than  48% against a Dem+Green. None of the other R House members are probably electable statewide

Could Higgs go for it? I never heard anything from him. Ik Sweikert has ethics issues and Lesko should be removed after that special election and gosar is batsh**t crazy but higgs seems like a backbencher.
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