Colorado is the obvious one and should offset Alabama.
Maine is a decent opportunity for Ds though Collins would be favored, and it won’t be free regardless in a presidential year.
To gain the senate Dems would need at least two others. The possibilities for gains would be North Carolina, Arizona, and Iowa principally. Cornyn won’t be challenged in Texas and Daines would beat Bullock in a senate race anyway. Georgia isn’t going to elect a Dem over Perdue.
So basically Dems need 2/3 of North Carolina, Arizona, and Iowa in my estimation to win the senate. They have a good shot at North Carolina and Arizona, though Iowa is probably a hill too far. Maine is also a sketchy pickup given Collins.
I think Rs hold senate even if Trump is losing in a Romney style manner, basically. And I think that is unlikely in the first place - in a D+7.5 environment Michigan elected Stabenow by 6.5, and Evers by less than 1.5. Trump is the incumbent president and so will be very tough to beat in those states - I think he will be tough to beat in Pennsylvania as well. If Georgia, Texas, or Arizona had a few more years of demographic change I could buy D chances there, but as things stand I honestly think Ds need to win the Rust Belt to have a chance.
Trump likely increased his advantage in MI and WI, but look at PA and AZ, and NH/ME at least didn't get any worse. From there, they only need one of NC/GA/FL, and 2 of the 3 clearly moved their way (the GOP statewide PV win in NC is due to an uncontested CD).
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