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Author Topic: 2020 prediction  (Read 2364 times)
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katman46
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« on: November 13, 2018, 03:12:31 pm »

discuss
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Left-Libertarian
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« Reply #1 on: November 13, 2018, 03:42:18 pm »

Trump is not winning Nevada or Colorado.
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pops
katman46
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« Reply #2 on: November 13, 2018, 03:46:37 pm »

Trump is not winning Nevada or Colorado.

Nice no objection to Connecticut or Minnesota
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mileslunn
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« Reply #3 on: November 13, 2018, 03:54:48 pm »

Way too early to make predictions, but if the midterm results were to play out nationally, Democrats would flip Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.  Iowa and Arizona would be nail biters while not enough information say how North Carolina would go.  Ohio would stay GOP, while Florida and Georgia would be narrow GOP wins.  At this point I see the following.

Solid GOP

Alaska
Idaho
Utah
Montana
Wyoming
North Dakota
South Dakota
Nebraska (4 of 5)
Kansas
Oklahoma
Missouri
Arkansas
Louisiana
Indiana
Kentucky
Tennessee
Mississippi
Alabama
West Virginia
South Carolina

Solid Democrat

Washington
Oregon
California
Hawaii
New Mexico
Illinois
Maine (1 of 4)
Vermont
Massachusetts
Rhode Island
Connecticut
New York
New Jersey
Maryland
Delaware
DC

Swing see comments beside each

Clinton swing

Nevada - Toss up

Colorado - Lean D, Democrats must win this while Trump can win without winnning here

Minnesota - Toss up

Maine (statewide) - Toss up, slight edge for Democrats

New Hampshire - Toss up

Virginia - Lean D, Democrats must win here, while Trump can win without it.

Trump Swing states

Arizona - Toss up, depends heavily on turnout

Nebraska 2 - Toss up

Texas - Likely R, slight chance of Democrat pick up but only if a wave election similar to 2008.

Iowa - Toss up but slight R lean, can see Democrats winning without Iowa, cannot see GOP winning without it.

Wisconsin - Toss up, of the three Blue Wall states Clinton lost, this is probably the one most likely to stay GOP, but still good chance of flipping.

Michigan - Toss up - Democrats must pick this up to win, GOP can still win without it, but narrows the path.

Ohio - Lean R, An asset for Democrats to win but can without it, GOP must win here as no path for them without Ohio.

Maine 2 - Toss up, slight R lean, but with a high number of on the fence voters could go either way.

Pennsylvania - Toss up - If the Democrats flip any states, this will likely be the first.  GOP can win without Pennsylvania although narrows path, Democrats must win here.

North Carolina - Toss up - Both can win without North Carolina but GOP has a much tougher path without it than Democrats do.

Georgia - Lean R - Democrats don't need to win here, just a bonus whereas GOP must win here to win nationally.

Florida - Toss up - highly likely it votes for the winner.  Both parties have paths without Florida but pretty much have to run the table in all other swing states meaning 90% chance it backs the winner.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #4 on: November 13, 2018, 03:55:43 pm »

Trump is not winning Nevada or Colorado.

Nice no objection to Connecticut or Minnesota

Connecticut is not going for Trump.  Minnesota might it depends on the swings.  Minneapolis-St. Paul suburbs swinging towards Democrats while rural Minnesota swinging towards GOP so depends which is a bigger swing of the two.
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pops
katman46
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« Reply #5 on: November 13, 2018, 03:56:54 pm »

Trump is not winning Nevada or Colorado.

Nice no objection to Connecticut or Minnesota

Connecticut is not going for Trump.  Minnesota might it depends on the swings.  Minneapolis-St. Paul suburbs swinging towards Democrats while rural Minnesota swinging towards GOP so depends which is a bigger swing of the two.

Connecticut will go to Trump very narrowly off of John Kasich splitting the Democrat vote and a 4% improvement for Trump there.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #6 on: November 13, 2018, 03:59:42 pm »

Trump is not winning Nevada or Colorado.

Nice no objection to Connecticut or Minnesota

Connecticut is not going for Trump.  Minnesota might it depends on the swings.  Minneapolis-St. Paul suburbs swinging towards Democrats while rural Minnesota swinging towards GOP so depends which is a bigger swing of the two.

Connecticut will go to Trump very narrowly off of John Kasich splitting the Democrat vote and a 4% improvement for Trump there.

That assumes Kasich runs as an independent.  4% improvement on Trump seems more like wishful thinking than reality.  It was close at the governor race for the same reason Democrats won Kansas.  If you look at the senate and congressional races not even close and horrible demographics for Trump GOP.  Now if Kasich was GOP leader, agree Connecticut would be winneable.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #7 on: November 13, 2018, 04:51:20 pm »

Connecticut and Colorado would be my only objections. Besides that I think its a possible map but not a likely one.
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TX more competitive than OH
Mizzouian
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« Reply #8 on: November 13, 2018, 10:30:26 pm »

Other than CT, NV and CO I donít think this is far-fetched
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Anarcho-Statism
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« Reply #9 on: November 13, 2018, 10:46:43 pm »

President Trump is, and always has been, a Democrat at heart. His only goal is to win. I see him doing something like legalizing marijuana nationwide or pulling troops in from the Middle East right before election night to flip Nevada and Colorado. New Hampshire and 3/4 of Maine would definitely vote for him if he throws a bone to the minarchists like that. Minnesota depends on the Democrats' candidate, though if they're running Elizabeth Warren or some other Midwesterner to try and take back the Great Lakes as I suspect they are, probably not. Probably too early for Connecticut to flip.
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« Reply #10 on: November 13, 2018, 11:31:20 pm »

Trump is not winning Nevada or Colorado.

Nice no objection to Connecticut or Minnesota

Connecticut is not going for Trump.  Minnesota might it depends on the swings.  Minneapolis-St. Paul suburbs swinging towards Democrats while rural Minnesota swinging towards GOP so depends which is a bigger swing of the two.

Connecticut will go to Trump very narrowly off of John Kasich splitting the Democrat vote and a 4% improvement for Trump there.

So who's the Democratic nominee? Illar Omar?  Lupe Valdez? Mark Zuckerberg?

You're going to say it's Bernie Sanders aren't you. ‍‍🤦‍♂️
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pops
katman46
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« Reply #11 on: November 14, 2018, 12:10:12 am »

Trump is not winning Nevada or Colorado.

Nice no objection to Connecticut or Minnesota

Connecticut is not going for Trump.  Minnesota might it depends on the swings.  Minneapolis-St. Paul suburbs swinging towards Democrats while rural Minnesota swinging towards GOP so depends which is a bigger swing of the two.

Connecticut will go to Trump very narrowly off of John Kasich splitting the Democrat vote and a 4% improvement for Trump there.

So who's the Democratic nominee? Illar Omar?  Lupe Valdez? Mark Zuckerberg?

You're going to say it's Bernie Sanders aren't you. ‍‍🤦‍♂️

Joe Biden
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Swing State Ohio
bagelman
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« Reply #12 on: November 14, 2018, 03:05:05 pm »

Trump is not winning Nevada or Colorado.

Nice no objection to Connecticut or Minnesota

Connecticut is not going for Trump.  Minnesota might it depends on the swings.  Minneapolis-St. Paul suburbs swinging towards Democrats while rural Minnesota swinging towards GOP so depends which is a bigger swing of the two.

Connecticut will go to Trump very narrowly off of John Kasich splitting the Democrat vote and a 4% improvement for Trump there.

So who's the Democratic nominee? Illar Omar?  Lupe Valdez? Mark Zuckerberg?

You're going to say it's Bernie Sanders aren't you. ‍‍🤦‍♂️

Joe Biden

I do think that Biden is overrated but you still have Kasich wrong, CT Republicans will vote for him. It's wildly optimistic for Trump to say he could win CT and, at this rate, CO.
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olowakandi
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« Reply #13 on: November 14, 2018, 08:41:33 pm »



279
194
65 IND
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mileslunn
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« Reply #14 on: November 14, 2018, 09:01:37 pm »



279
194
65 IND

Doubt any independents will win any electoral votes.  Do you mean rather states where it is too close to call?
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olowakandi
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« Reply #15 on: November 14, 2018, 09:11:24 pm »

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MAGugh
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« Reply #16 on: November 16, 2018, 12:04:42 pm »

President Trump is, and always has been, a Democrat at heart. His only goal is to win. I see him doing something like legalizing marijuana nationwide or pulling troops in from the Middle East right before election night to flip Nevada and Colorado. New Hampshire and 3/4 of Maine would definitely vote for him if he throws a bone to the minarchists like that. Minnesota depends on the Democrats' candidate, though if they're running Elizabeth Warren or some other Midwesterner to try and take back the Great Lakes as I suspect they are, probably not. Probably too early for Connecticut to flip.

The whole legalizing marijuana/pulling the troops thing is actually quite a dark horse discussion going on in Trump supporter circles at the moment.
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Anarcho-Statism
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« Reply #17 on: November 25, 2018, 12:13:56 am »

The whole legalizing marijuana/pulling the troops thing is actually quite a dark horse discussion going on in Trump supporter circles at the moment.
Oh, trust me, it has been since the beginning. They seem to believe those things will happen simply because he's their libertarian ideologue. I say President Trump will employ populism when needed to boost approval ratings, then do the things he believes necessary to make America great again whether or not they jive with his socially liberal base (say, the cruise missiles in Syria).
« Last Edit: November 25, 2018, 12:18:24 am by Anarcho-Statism »Logged
АndriуValeriovich
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« Reply #18 on: November 25, 2018, 09:21:51 am »

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Tulsi "Both sides" Gabbard
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« Reply #19 on: November 25, 2018, 10:50:28 pm »



Florida, the land of perpetual disappointment...
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olowakandi
olawakandi
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« Reply #20 on: November 26, 2018, 12:26:22 pm »



Biden can win OH and IA and AZ and so can Booker with Tim Ryan
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ON Conservative
Liam
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« Reply #21 on: December 01, 2018, 06:34:38 pm »


Arenít you going to learn something from your last 10 predictions?
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pops
katman46
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« Reply #22 on: December 01, 2018, 09:24:14 pm »

Updated prediction:



Trump (R) - 42.4% (+0.6)
Biden (D) - 41.8%
Kasich (IND) - 13.6%
Weld (L) - 1.3%
Baraka (G) - 0.4%
Others - 0.6%

States with a less than 10% margin, from largest Dem margin to largest GOP margin
New Mexico
New Jersey
Delaware
Oregon
Virginia
Maine
Minnesota
---
Connecticut
New Hampshire
Florida
Nevada
Michigan
Pennsylvania
Colorado
Wisconsin
Ohio
Texas
Iowa
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President Phil Scott
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« Reply #23 on: December 02, 2018, 05:01:26 pm »

Updated prediction:



Trump (R) - 42.4% (+0.6)
Biden (D) - 41.8%
Kasich (IND) - 13.6%
Weld (L) - 1.3%
Baraka (G) - 0.4%
Others - 0.6%

States with a less than 10% margin, from largest Dem margin to largest GOP margin
New Mexico
New Jersey
Delaware
Oregon
Virginia
Maine
Minnesota
---
Connecticut
New Hampshire
Florida
Nevada
Michigan
Pennsylvania
Colorado
Wisconsin
Ohio
Texas
Iowa
whoa.
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olowakandi
olawakandi
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« Reply #24 on: December 12, 2018, 03:23:55 pm »


Arenít you going to learn something from your last 10 predictions?

Dems will win 279 electors, if nothing else, but Dems have Congressional candidates in House and Senate that can allow them to win more.
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