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Author Topic: 2020 downballot predictions  (Read 1382 times)
Swing State Ohio
bagelman
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« on: November 13, 2018, 11:33:14 pm »

Discuss with maps how senatorial, gubernatorial, and/or congressional races will go as Trump fights for reelection.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #1 on: November 14, 2018, 12:35:22 am »

Is this for 2020 or 2018.  For 2020, I see the following.

If Democrats win the White house, they will likely hold if not gain seats, but if Trump is re-elected I suspect GOP will gain and possibly retake it narrowly.

For senate, the map is far more favourable to the Democrats as mostly GOP as opposed to Democrats up for re-election, but still retaking it will be much easier if they win the white house as they only need to flip four seats as opposed to five if they lose (note I am assuming Florida remains in GOP column once counting is done which is likely, Mississippi goes GOP in the runoff which is pretty much a near certainty, and Alabama is a GOP pick-up in 2020, also highly likely).  Democrats could lose Minnesota, Michigan, and New Hampshire if they bomb in the presidential election but unlikely.  Their best chances for gains are Arizona, Iowa, Maine, North Carolina, and Georgia and maybe Texas if there is a large blue wave.  Since voting split tickets is a lot less common today I suspect whatever way each state goes for president is probably how it will go for senate unless super close.  Thus winning the white house greatly improves their chances, while if Trump is re-elected probably will make few if any gains.

For governor races, I think anything from 25-25 to 30-20 in favour GOP is likely.  Next year, I cannot see the Democrats picking up Kentucky or Mississippi, but could see the GOP picking up Louisiana.  In 2020, unless they get a strong candidate, I think Montana will go GOP, but they do have a history of splitting tickets more so than other states.  North Carolina could flip too depending on overall results, while New Hampshire and Vermont are the only ones I could see the Democrats picking up assuming the incumbents don't seek re-election.  Of the outstanding races, I am going on the assumption both Florida and Georgia go GOP which at this point I think the Democrats picking up enough outstanding votes to win those for 2018 seems extremely unlikely.
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olowakandi
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« Reply #2 on: November 14, 2018, 08:46:08 pm »



Presidential race



Gubernatorial map



Senate map
« Last Edit: November 14, 2018, 09:10:57 pm by Cory Booker »Logged
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« Reply #3 on: December 06, 2018, 08:20:57 pm »

Bold prediction: Republicans will gain in the Senate again and take back the House. But in 2022, both go blue.
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Lechasseur
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« Reply #4 on: December 07, 2018, 02:04:08 pm »

For Gubernatorial Elections, I think Montana flips and maybe North Carolina too depending on how the Presidential election goes; otherwise the incumbent parties will keep their respective states in 2020.

For the Senate, it's really too early to predict at this point. It will all depend on how the Presidential election goes. Same thing for the House.
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Lechasseur
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« Reply #5 on: December 07, 2018, 02:08:38 pm »



Presidential race



Gubernatorial map



Senate map

The Democrats won't win the Kentucky gubernatorial if they don't keep Louisiana, where they have a much better shot.
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« Reply #6 on: December 09, 2018, 01:04:08 am »

Early Senate ratings:


Gov:

Vermont's assuming Scott runs again.
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Lakigigar
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« Reply #7 on: December 19, 2018, 11:29:40 am »

Presidential map:



Senate map:


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PragmaticPopulist
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« Reply #8 on: December 21, 2018, 09:15:38 am »

Senate:


Governors:


And because I like row offices, Attorneys General:
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Flyersfan232
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« Reply #9 on: December 21, 2018, 10:20:12 am »

too early waiting for some senate and governor candidates to declare.
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RenegadeSquirel8
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« Reply #10 on: December 22, 2018, 05:16:11 pm »

If Steve Bullock runs for senate then Montana is a Toss-up or Lean D
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #11 on: December 23, 2018, 08:10:27 am »

too early waiting for some senate and governor candidates to declare.
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Suburban New Jersey Conservative
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« Reply #12 on: February 24, 2019, 02:49:01 pm »

Senate Competitive or Flips
Alabama: Bryne 58-42 over Jones

Arizona: McSally 51-48 over GallegO
Kelly over McSally 49-48

Colorado: Perlmutter 52-48 over Gardner

Georgia: Perdue 50-48 over Abrams

Iowa: Ernst 55-45 over Democrat

Maine: Collins 54-46 over Gideon
55-45 over Golden
59-41 over Susan Rice

Massachusetts: Markey 57-43 over Baker
Markey 65-35 over Republican

Montana: Daines 53-46 over Bullock
52-48 over Schweitzer
59-41 over Democrat

Michigan: Peters 50-49 over Republican

Minnesota: Smith 51-47 over Republican

New Hampshire: Shaheen 50-48 over Republican
Ayotte 49-48 over Shaheen
Sununu 50-48 over Shaheen

Texas:
Cornyn 51-45 over O'Rourke
Cornyn 55-42 over Democrat


Virginia:
Warner 53-46 over Comstock
Warner 55-43 over Republican


Governor
Montana
Fox 55-45 over Cooney
Stapleton 53-47 over Cooney

New Hampshire
Sununu 56-42 over Democrat

North Carolina
Forest 50-48 over Cooper
Cooper 50-49 over Berger
Tillis 54-46 over Cooper
Cooper 49-48 over Republican

Vermont

Leahy 51-48 over Scott

Scott 53-46 over Democrat
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