2020 downballot predictions

[bagelman]

Discuss with maps how senatorial, gubernatorial, and/or congressional races will go as Trump fights for reelection.

[mileslunn]

Is this for 2020 or 2018.  For 2020, I see the following.

If Democrats win the White house, they will likely hold if not gain seats, but if Trump is re-elected I suspect GOP will gain and possibly retake it narrowly.

For senate, the map is far more favourable to the Democrats as mostly GOP as opposed to Democrats up for re-election, but still retaking it will be much easier if they win the white house as they only need to flip four seats as opposed to five if they lose (note I am assuming Florida remains in GOP column once counting is done which is likely, Mississippi goes GOP in the runoff which is pretty much a near certainty, and Alabama is a GOP pick-up in 2020, also highly likely).  Democrats could lose Minnesota, Michigan, and New Hampshire if they bomb in the presidential election but unlikely.  Their best chances for gains are Arizona, Iowa, Maine, North Carolina, and Georgia and maybe Texas if there is a large blue wave.  Since voting split tickets is a lot less common today I suspect whatever way each state goes for president is probably how it will go for senate unless super close.  Thus winning the white house greatly improves their chances, while if Trump is re-elected probably will make few if any gains.

For governor races, I think anything from 25-25 to 30-20 in favour GOP is likely.  Next year, I cannot see the Democrats picking up Kentucky or Mississippi, but could see the GOP picking up Louisiana.  In 2020, unless they get a strong candidate, I think Montana will go GOP, but they do have a history of splitting tickets more so than other states.  North Carolina could flip too depending on overall results, while New Hampshire and Vermont are the only ones I could see the Democrats picking up assuming the incumbents don't seek re-election.  Of the outstanding races, I am going on the assumption both Florida and Georgia go GOP which at this point I think the Democrats picking up enough outstanding votes to win those for 2018 seems extremely unlikely.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Presidential race

Gubernatorial map

Senate map

[pops]

Bold prediction: Republicans will gain in the Senate again and take back the House. But in 2022, both go blue.

[Lechasseur]

For Gubernatorial Elections, I think Montana flips and maybe North Carolina too depending on how the Presidential election goes; otherwise the incumbent parties will keep their respective states in 2020.

For the Senate, it's really too early to predict at this point. It will all depend on how the Presidential election goes. Same thing for the House.

[Lechasseur]

Presidential race

Gubernatorial map

Senate map

The Democrats won't win the Kentucky gubernatorial if they don't keep Louisiana, where they have a much better shot.

[Dr. MB]

Early Senate ratings:

Gov:

Vermont's assuming Scott runs again.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Presidential map:

Senate map:

[PragmaticPopulist]

Senate:

Governors:

And because I like row offices, Attorneys General:

[Flyersfan232]

too early waiting for some senate and governor candidates to declare.

[RenegadeSquirel8]

If Steve Bullock runs for senate then Montana is a Toss-up or Lean D

[brucejoel99]

too early waiting for some senate and governor candidates to declare.

[S019]

Senate Competitive or Flips
Alabama: Bryne 58-42 over Jones

Arizona: McSally 51-48 over GallegO
Kelly over McSally 49-48

Colorado: Perlmutter 52-48 over Gardner

Georgia: Perdue 50-48 over Abrams

Iowa: Ernst 55-45 over Democrat

Maine: Collins 54-46 over Gideon
55-45 over Golden
59-41 over Susan Rice

Massachusetts: Markey 57-43 over Baker
Markey 65-35 over Republican

Montana: Daines 53-46 over Bullock
52-48 over Schweitzer
59-41 over Democrat

Michigan: Peters 50-49 over Republican

Minnesota: Smith 51-47 over Republican

New Hampshire: Shaheen 50-48 over Republican
Ayotte 49-48 over Shaheen
Sununu 50-48 over Shaheen

Texas:
Cornyn 51-45 over O'Rourke
Cornyn 55-42 over Democrat


Virginia:
Warner 53-46 over Comstock
Warner 55-43 over Republican


Governor
Montana
Fox 55-45 over Cooney
Stapleton 53-47 over Cooney

New Hampshire
Sununu 56-42 over Democrat

North Carolina
Forest 50-48 over Cooper
Cooper 50-49 over Berger
Tillis 54-46 over Cooper
Cooper 49-48 over Republican

Vermont

Leahy 51-48 over Scott

Scott 53-46 over Democrat

[LoneStarDem]

Governorships 2020:
NC: I think Cooper wins reelection by double digits considering he's NEVER lost an election ever in the Tar Heel State.

MT (Open): GOP picks up this one since the MT Dems don't have a strong contender to maintain control of the MT Governor's Residence (they've held it for 16 years since 2005).

NH: Sununu wins reelection to a 3rd term, but whether he runs for the United States Senate in 2022 is another question.

VT: Depends on if Scott's popularity remains high for him to get a 3rd term.

United States Senate:

AL: Jones loses somewhere between 6 to 16 percentage points. Everyone in the world knows his days are numbered considering the weakness of the AL Dems on the statewide level & getting wiped out in the AL State Legislature.

AZ (Special): McSally wins & likely wins a full 6-year term in 2022.

CO: DEM Pick-Up. I wonder how long before Hickenlooper gets pressured to run for this US Senate seat because I don't see his Presidential campaign going anywhere.

IA: Ernst wins very handily as the Hawkeye State is trending further & further Red.

ME: I think 2020 is Collins' last political campaign & when she retires, the seat is going DEM in 2026.

MA: Markey is safe.

MT: Depends on what Bullock decides.

MI: Peters wins (56% to 40%).

MN: Smith wins (54% to 42%).

NH: I'll be shocked if NH Governor Chris Sununu (R) gets influenced by the Trump White House to take down Shaheen. After all, we did see Trump successfully persuade Scott into running against Nelson in FL last year, which Scott won.

NM: Udall wins by 25 percentage points. I'm feeling like 2020 is his last.

TX: Cornyn wins his 7th statewide election victory in a row. He'll be there until he kicks the bucket & I still believe he wants to become US Senate Majority Leader.

VA: Warner wins easily with 59% of the statewide vote for 3rd 6-year term.