TX-SEN 2020 Megathread: Early Voting

[Rookie Yinzer]

Weak.

Oh well time to pour our energy into MJ Hegar.

[Ilhan Apologist]

Great bio and very charismatic with no voting record to attack for being too liberal or whatever.

I'm glad Castro's out. He'd be associated with his brother, who's running way to the left with zero charisma in the POTUS primary. Joaquin would have a difficult time denouncing everything his brother says. I think Hegar'll be a way better candidate.

Im starting to wonder if y'all were awake during the 2018 midterms when a guy running on a Medicare for All, Tight Gun Control, Pro-Choice Platform almost beat Ted Cruz.

He backed off Medicare for All (he'd never signed onto the house bill), and started preaching bipartisanship as the election came close. And no, I'm not saying the candidate has to be pro-gun and anti-abortion. I just think Julian's vanity run for POTUS would have really hurt Joaquin if he had tried to run for senate.

[henster]

They key to knocking off Conryn is painting him as a Washington Insider and a creature of the swamp, Hegar can do that a lot better than Castro.

[Brittain33]

I get that it's an uphill battle, but Castro is really selfish. This is a horrible cycle for the Democrats in terms of recruitment.

Castro is upset with his brother's chances in the Democratic primary, Joaquin is gonna stay in the House where he is a safer bet.

We have a recruitment in MJ Hegar.

Hegar has never won an election before.

Were you the poster calling her a “perennial candidate” last week when she’s only run in one election?

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Castro is so overated glad he is out.

[The Mikado]

YMMV, but after following the 2018 elections closely, O'Rourke seems like the only candidate in that batch with a strong personal appeal. There were others who ran out of a unique political niche (Sinema) or who ran particularly strong campaigns (Abrams), but Texas was the only contest where it seemed like no other candidate could have done so well.

Eh. I don't think any Republican other than Rick Scott was going to knock off Bill Nelson that year. It took Scott's own goodwill from his hurricane management in 2017 to really put him over the edge.

[Roll Roons]

YMMV, but after following the 2018 elections closely, O'Rourke seems like the only candidate in that batch with a strong personal appeal. There were others who ran out of a unique political niche (Sinema) or who ran particularly strong campaigns (Abrams), but Texas was the only contest where it seemed like no other candidate could have done so well.

Eh. I don't think any Republican other than Rick Scott was going to knock off Bill Nelson that year. It took Scott's own goodwill from his hurricane management in 2017 to really put him over the edge.

IMO it's hard to compare the statewide maps in Florida and come away thinking that the candidates had that much to do with the outcomes in 2018.

Of course in a razor's-edge contest it's inarguable that they mattered.

I still wonder whether that Senate loss had more to do with Scott's Guns-of-Navarone-level campaign spending, or with Bill Nelson being vulnerable to a "doddering old man" caricature that would have been effective regardless of his opponent.

This question deserves some national attention given the age of the leading Democratic presidential contenders.

Well Trump isn't that much younger than Bernie or Biden. But I think it'll be hard to paint either as a "tired old man" like Nelson. Nelson didn't even really start fundraising/campaigning until September 2018 because he assumed that Scott would be another pushover like Harris or Mack. Both Bernie and Biden have a lot more energy, and won't take anything for granted. They should be fine on that front as long as they don't collapse in public a la Hillary at the 9/11 memorial.

And I do think Scott was the only one who could have beaten Nelson. As a popular incumbent governor who also happens to be a multimillionaire, Scott was just about the strongest candidate Republicans could have fielded for that race, and considering how close it was even with him, I find it hard to believe that anyone else could have won.

[wesmoorenerd]

Stevens is gone in 2020, Spanberger probably loses, Luria is a poor Tossup, Sherrill strikes me as overrated, I live in Morris County, she probably won't win it again, her support in Montclair, the Oranges, Little Falls, and the Essex and Passaic part of the district will get her reelected, I doubt she wins by more than 6-7 and could lose on a good night for Republicans

Lmao you really are an increasingly ridiculous parody of yourself

[KaiserDave]

Stevens is gone in 2020, Spanberger probably loses, Luria is a poor Tossup, Sherrill strikes me as overrated, I live in Morris County, she probably won't win it again, her support in Montclair, the Oranges, Little Falls, and the Essex and Passaic part of the district will get her reelected, I doubt she wins by more than 6-7 and could lose on a good night for Republicans

I agree and #StrongCandidate Barbara Comstock would make VA-10 Tossup/Tilt D in a rematch.

[Galeel]

The reason Beto lost was because he failed to increase Hispanic turnout to the same level as he did among other voters. That is why Castro was the best candidate.

[Holmes]

The reason Beto lost was because he failed to increase Hispanic turnout to the same level as he did among other voters. That is why Castro was the best candidate.

Assuming Castro would've been able to replicate Beto's performance in every other demographic.

[OneJ]

The reason Beto lost was because he failed to increase Hispanic turnout to the same level as he did among other voters. That is why Castro was the best candidate.

Assuming Castro would've been able to replicate Beto's performance in every other demographic.

Yep, that’s a big if which is part of the reason I think Hegar is likely better than Castro.

[Bidenworth2020]

The reason Beto lost was because he failed to increase Hispanic turnout to the same level as he did among other voters. That is why Castro was the best candidate.

Assuming Castro would've been able to replicate Beto's performance in every other demographic.

Yep, that’s a big if which is part of the reason I think Hegar is likely better than Castro.

WHy would Hegar replicate it?

[Pericles]

I think Hegar has a compelling message and will be able to effectively portray Cornyn as a tired DC insider, she lost because she was triaged and even so did very well for a previously safe Relublican district.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The reason Beto lost was because he failed to increase Hispanic turnout to the same level as he did among other voters. That is why Castro was the best candidate.

Assuming Castro would've been able to replicate Beto's performance in every other demographic.

Yep, that’s a big if which is part of the reason I think Hegar is likely better than Castro.

WHy would Hegar replicate it?

The only way Heger wins, if its a 2012, wave, and Joe Biden can replicate it, but it will be tough

[OneJ]

The reason Beto lost was because he failed to increase Hispanic turnout to the same level as he did among other voters. That is why Castro was the best candidate.

Assuming Castro would've been able to replicate Beto's performance in every other demographic.

Yep, that’s a big if which is part of the reason I think Hegar is likely better than Castro.

WHy would Hegar replicate it?

I mean the main reason is that she already did well in TX-31 last year. It’s not guaranteed, but it won’t hurt to actually try.

[cvparty]

The reason Beto lost was because he failed to increase Hispanic turnout to the same level as he did among other voters. That is why Castro was the best candidate.

but would that erase cruz’s 200k margin

[LoneStarDem]

Cornyn wins by double digits.

[Indy Texas]

Cornyn wins by double digits.

I think his ceiling his probably 55%. That's what he got in 2008, when Texas was much more Republican and the Democrats nominated a sacrificial lamb.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Cornyn wins by double digits.

Nah. By 5-7.

[Theodore]

Cornyn wins by double digits.

[RogueBeaver]

https://twitter.com/PatrickSvitek/status/1127958410136256512

[Stranger in a strange land]

The reason Beto lost was because he failed to increase Hispanic turnout to the same level as he did among other voters. That is why Castro was the best candidate.

The best would have been to have Beto run for Senate and Castro run for Governor.

[MapModerate]

The reason Beto lost was because he failed to increase Hispanic turnout to the same level as he did among other voters. That is why Castro was the best candidate.

Because Castro has ALL of Beto's strength as a campaigner, plus he is a brown! Makes sense to me! Logic!

[Continential]

https://twitter.com/PatrickSvitek/status/1127958410136256512

The last time he ran for a election, Bush was President and the Governor's election was split.