TX-SEN 2020 Megathread: Early Voting

[NOVA Green]

Either of the Castro Brothers are likely poor choices...

As would hypothetically be an African-American Candidate...

Reality is although Tejas has been gradually shifting Democratic, the major shifts in recent General Elections have occurred among Anglo swing voters within the large Metro Areas, and that although on the one hand we can observe extremely high turnout levels among Millennial voters in Texas (Compared to historical data), a political campaign based upon the Texas politics of the Mid '80s (Where Castro flipped SA mayoral elections for a DEM) or Cities like Dallas and Houston, where Mayors and Top Cops were Black Cops, we are not yet a point where a person of color is likely to win a statewide election in Texas (Getting there but not quite yet)...

BETO would be the obvious one in the wings (If he doesn't run for PRES '20), but if not DEMS have a few other options from Metro DFW / Houston, and Central TX, South Tx, and West TX will fall in line against the bland generic Trumpsita 'PUB whose name I recognize, but have 0% opinion nor approval of his voting record....

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Cornyn says he thinks TX is becoming a purple state, but Beto will run for President rather than for Senate again.

Cornyn: Texas On Verge Of Becoming "Purple" State, Will Face Tough Re-Election

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Cornyn: Texas is no longer a ‘reliably red state’

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[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Apparently TX Law allows Beto to run both for the Presidency and for the Senate at the same time... So there we go!

Legally, Beto O’Rourke Can Run for President and Senate in 2020]Legally, Beto O’Rourke Can Run for President and Senate in 2020

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[Zaybay]

Apparently TX Law allows Beto to run both for the Presidency and for the Senate at the same time... So there we go!

Legally, Beto O’Rourke Can Run for President and Senate in 2020]Legally, Beto O’Rourke Can Run for President and Senate in 2020

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Bad idea, but it does mean that if Beto runs in the presidential primary, and loses near the end, he can just default to TX Sen.

[Badger]

Beto for Prez.

Hegar for Senate.

[Badger]

O’Rourke needs to go for the big enchilada. Screw waiting more cycles because old out of touch farts in the Beltway don’t think he’s ready. He is literally the perfect contrast to the high functioning dementia patient in the Oval.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Cornyn claims to be taking his re-election seriously, and sounds like he may try to distance himself from Trump somewhat...

https://www.texasmonthly.com/politics/john-cornyn-says-donald-trump-will-no-texas-coattails-2020-election/

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[Pollster]

The Texas Dem Party should be getting started on bruising Cornyn now, before there is a clear candidate for Cornyn/Trump to hit back at. They should be getting mailers out to every Beto/Abbott voter they can identify and ensuring that Cornyn is not seen in their eyes as more Abbott-esque than Cruz-esque. The only chance the party has at this seat requires holding these voters.

[aaroncd107]

What do you guys think about Lt. Gov. candidate Mike Collier? He seems okay on charisma, and outperformed Beto in 171 counties that I assume are mostly white and mostly rural. Could he make it competitive vs. Cornyn? If you combine his minimal inroads with rural whites (which admittedly will be fleeting) with juiced up Latino turnout in the Rio Grande valley, and Beto at the very top of the ticket, I would say he could get pretty close if TX Dems start chipping early, like Pollster said.

Or, is Kim Olson the one for that? Running women everywhere seems like a safe bet.

[Terry the Fat Shark]

Kim Olson and Justin Nelson are decent, I don't think you should run any people who ran for House for the Senate seat, have them run again in their house seats as some may actually win this time given how close things were (except in TX-24, don't run her again please )

[Bidenworth2020]

What do you guys think about Lt. Gov. candidate Mike Collier? He seems okay on charisma, and outperformed Beto in 171 counties that I assume are mostly white and mostly rural. Could he make it competitive vs. Cornyn? If you combine his minimal inroads with rural whites (which admittedly will be fleeting) with juiced up Latino turnout in the Rio Grande valley, and Beto at the very top of the ticket, I would say he could get pretty close if TX Dems start chipping early, like Pollster said.

Or, is Kim Olson the one for that? Running women everywhere seems like a safe bet.

Olson lost by 10, i thought?

[aaroncd107]

What do you guys think about Lt. Gov. candidate Mike Collier? He seems okay on charisma, and outperformed Beto in 171 counties that I assume are mostly white and mostly rural. Could he make it competitive vs. Cornyn? If you combine his minimal inroads with rural whites (which admittedly will be fleeting) with juiced up Latino turnout in the Rio Grande valley, and Beto at the very top of the ticket, I would say he could get pretty close if TX Dems start chipping early, like Pollster said.

Or, is Kim Olson the one for that? Running women everywhere seems like a safe bet.

Olson lost by 10, i thought?

No, only 5. About as much as Collier.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

What do you guys think about Lt. Gov. candidate Mike Collier? He seems okay on charisma, and outperformed Beto in 171 counties that I assume are mostly white and mostly rural. Could he make it competitive vs. Cornyn? If you combine his minimal inroads with rural whites (which admittedly will be fleeting) with juiced up Latino turnout in the Rio Grande valley, and Beto at the very top of the ticket, I would say he could get pretty close if TX Dems start chipping early, like Pollster said.

Or, is Kim Olson the one for that? Running women everywhere seems like a safe bet.

It is pretty silly to focus on the 171 counties where Collier overperformed Beto, given that Beto overperformed Collier substantially overall. Those 171 counties have very few people, in comparison to the ones where Beto did better. Dems should want a candidate who can get Beto+ performance in the Urban/Suburban counties where Beto did well. Keep Beto's gains and expand on them.

Elections are won by votes, not by counties. Votes are cast by people, not by land.

[Beet]

What do you guys think about Lt. Gov. candidate Mike Collier? He seems okay on charisma, and outperformed Beto in 171 counties that I assume are mostly white and mostly rural. Could he make it competitive vs. Cornyn? If you combine his minimal inroads with rural whites (which admittedly will be fleeting) with juiced up Latino turnout in the Rio Grande valley, and Beto at the very top of the ticket, I would say he could get pretty close if TX Dems start chipping early, like Pollster said.

Or, is Kim Olson the one for that? Running women everywhere seems like a safe bet.

It is pretty silly to focus on the 171 counties where Collier overperformed Beto, given that Beto overperformed Collier substantially overall. Those 171 counties have very few people, in comparison to the ones where Beto did better. Dems should want a candidate who can get Beto+ performance in the Urban/Suburban counties where Beto did well. Keep Beto's gains and expand on them.

Elections are won by votes, not by counties. Votes are cast by people, not by land.

President Hillary Rodham Clinton and Justice Merrick Garland heartily agree

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

What do you guys think about Lt. Gov. candidate Mike Collier? He seems okay on charisma, and outperformed Beto in 171 counties that I assume are mostly white and mostly rural. Could he make it competitive vs. Cornyn? If you combine his minimal inroads with rural whites (which admittedly will be fleeting) with juiced up Latino turnout in the Rio Grande valley, and Beto at the very top of the ticket, I would say he could get pretty close if TX Dems start chipping early, like Pollster said.

Or, is Kim Olson the one for that? Running women everywhere seems like a safe bet.

It is pretty silly to focus on the 171 counties where Collier overperformed Beto, given that Beto overperformed Collier substantially overall. Those 171 counties have very few people, in comparison to the ones where Beto did better. Dems should want a candidate who can get Beto+ performance in the Urban/Suburban counties where Beto did well. Keep Beto's gains and expand on them.

Elections are won by votes, not by counties. Votes are cast by people, not by land.

President Hillary Rodham Clinton and Justice Merrick Garland heartily agree

We are talking about a statewide vote here, not the electoral college. In a statewide vote, the votes of people in urban and suburban areas count for just as much as the votes of people in rural areas. And in TX, there are many more voters in urban and suburban areas than in rural areas.

It is true though that in the electoral college, land does vote rather than people, which is why it is an illegitimately undemocratic institution, much like the US Senate.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

What about former Houston mayor Annise Parker?

[coloradocowboi]

Why has nobody mentioned Rafael Anchia. He seems like a very strong candidate, maybe even stronger than Beto. Am I missing something?

[Young Conservative]

Why has nobody mentioned Rafael Anchia. He seems like a very strong candidate, maybe even stronger than Beto. Am I missing something?

Lol no because Rafael Anchia is a some dude without Beto's charisma.

[Brittain33]

Why has nobody mentioned Rafael Anchia. He seems like a very strong candidate, maybe even stronger than Beto. Am I missing something?

Literally never heard of him. Who is he?

[coloradocowboi]

Why has nobody mentioned Rafael Anchia. He seems like a very strong candidate, maybe even stronger than Beto. Am I missing something?

Lol no because Rafael Anchia is a some dude without Beto's charisma.

Disagree. Go look at his speeches on the TX House floor.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Anchia's district also partly overlaps with TX-24 (but most of it is not in TX-24), so he is also at least a possible candidate for TX-24.

[The Mikado]

Why has nobody mentioned Rafael Anchia. He seems like a very strong candidate, maybe even stronger than Beto. Am I missing something?

Literally never heard of him. Who is he?

He's a Dallas-area state legislator who has been pegged as a rising star. Represents the Hispanic parts of West Dallas. The expectation has been that if/when Dallas gets an extra minority sink district in the House after redistricting, it'll be his.

[NewYorkExpress]

What about former Houston mayor Annise Parker?

Because Parker is LBTQ, she'd get slaughtered statewide. She might win a Houston area Congressional District though, if she ran a good campaign.

[Beet]

Why has nobody mentioned Rafael Anchia. He seems like a very strong candidate, maybe even stronger than Beto. Am I missing something?

Literally never heard of him. Who is he?

He's a Dallas-area state legislator who has been pegged as a rising star. Represents the Hispanic parts of West Dallas. The expectation has been that if/when Dallas gets an extra minority sink district in the House after redistricting, it'll be his.

If he's really waiting around for the Republicans to hand him a House seat, he doesn't deserve to win anything. Just run for TX-24 or statewide soon.

[Pollster]

Surprised nobody has mentioned Admiral McRaven here yet.