TX-SEN 2020 Megathread: Early Voting

[Stranger in a strange land]

On the one hand, I feel Cruz was uniquely vulnerable because of his smarminess, awful personality, and raw, self-serving ambition. Cornyn is more or less a generic R who doesn't have any of these glaring weaknesses, but whose main (and probably only) weaknesses are that he's boring and has done little to distinguish himself, despite a long tenure in the Senate. For better or worse, the same can't be said of Cruz.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

It sounds like the early speculation is that Beto probably won't run for Senate. He at least "has not expressed interest" in it.

However, M.J. Hegar is saying she has been encouraged to run for a "VARIETY" of different offices, which I would guess means she is thinking of either running for TX-31 again or else maybe running for TX-SEN against Cornyn instead.

https://www.texastribune.org/2018/11/19/beto-orourke-julian-castro-john-cornyn-texas-2020/

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Also, a quote from DNC chair Tom Perez from that article:

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I would be very happy with Hegar running for Senate and Beto running for President. If Beto were on the Presidential ticket, it doesn't seem out of the realm of possibility that Dems could both win TX-SEN and carry TX in the Presidential election. Not easy, to be sure, but also not impossible like it seemed just a few years ago.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If Dems can make some gains in the 2019 Gubernatorial races like KY and/or MS, the Dems can still win in the rural south.  But, Cornyn is a very intelligent politician, and more skillful at debating, than Cruz.

[Former Kentuckian]

Dems overperformed in the US Senate race, the Attorney General race, the Ag Commissioner race, the Supreme Court races, flipped several other Court races, made the US House races  competitive (while flipping some), and made inroads in the state legislature. We need a 2020 Senate candidate who can pick up the infrastructure that was made in 2018 and run full blast with it.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Beto for Prez.

Hegar for Senate.

[Ben.]

Dems overperformed in the US Senate race, the Attorney General race, the Ag Commissioner race, the Supreme Court races, flipped several other Court races, made the US House races  competitive (while flipping some), and made inroads in the state legislature. We need a 2020 Senate candidate who can pick up the infrastructure that was made in 2018 and run full blast with it.

With a slim comparatively slim bench, are there any non-elected officials who could run competitively?

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Here's another article, this one suggesting that Beto may run either for President or for Senate against Cornyn.

Beto O'Rourke's donors and supporters are prodding him to run for president or against GOP Sen. John Cornyn in 2020

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[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Although I don't think Castro would necessarily be the best candidate for TX-SEN (I lean towards thinking Hegar would be better if Beto doesn't run for Senate), if Castro ran for Senate while Beto ran for President, Castro could help juice Hispanic turnout and it is not too hard to see the possibility of Beto at the top of the ticket and Castro running for Senate both ending up winning, if Beto is the Presidential nominee (or VP) and Dems beat Trump.

[Rookie Yinzer]

O’Rourke needs to go for the big enchilada. Screw waiting more cycles because old out of touch farts in the Beltway don’t think he’s ready. He is literally the perfect contrast to the high functioning dementia patient in the Oval.

[Virginiá]

Obviously what is best for O'Rourke's family is that they move into the White House as soon as possible.

[Ben.]

O’Rourke needs to go for the big enchilada. Screw waiting more cycles because old out of touch farts in the Beltway don’t think he’s ready. He is literally the perfect contrast to the high functioning dementia patient in the Oval.

Maybe, but I would be concerned that an O'Rourke Presidential run has 'John Edwards 2.0' written all over it. That said, O'Rourke would be going up against Trump and not GW Bush or McCain.

From a party-building perspective, there is also a risk that without a strong slate of candidates in 2020 the progress the Dems made in TX this cycle goes into reverse.

[Shadows]

You also add to the fact that more boomers die & are replaced by young people who by default always tend to be less Republican.

Texas is also a non-voting state. If turnout if high enough among Hispanics & young people, Democrats do have a good chance of a win. There's 2 years left. Dems have gained some House seats. Beto knows the state & has a better infra running this time around.

It is not impossible. 2.5% is not that hard.

[Virginiá]

[...]

It is not impossible. 2.5% is not that hard.

It depends. It can be, especially if the party was already in a hole in the state and that 2.5% gap was a banner year, meaning it took everything they had just to get to that point.

That being said, Texas being competitive in 2020 and beyond certainly looks a lot more likely now.

[completely dead account]

There doesn't really seem to be any significant weaknesses of Cornyn. He's just another one of those generic solid conservative Republican Senators that occasionally appear in the news for saying something big, and then disappears again after a week.

Not sure who will challenge Cornyn, but he'll probably still win.

[Tekken_Guy]

I think Beto would be a better fit for the presidency. Have one of the Castros go for the senate. Hegar will probably run for House again.

[SCNCmod]

I think it will be wither Beto ... or if he gets the Dem Pres Nom... one of the Castros.   

IF...Beto does get the Dem Pres Nominee.... then I actually think one of the Castros would be a strong candidate and would create synergy in Texas with Beto's Pres Bid (especially if Beto were to choose a strong Latina running mate.)  Such a triple combo could actually put Texas in play IMO. ... as you could potentially have unheard of Latino/ Hispanic turnout & support (especially with Cruz not on the ballot... who still got somewhat decent Hispanic support).

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I doubt Beto does any better than Castro does at the Presidential Level

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

The Castros aren't good candidates, especially Julian. Julian doesn't even speak good spanish and he is hispanic!

Inb4 IceSpear

[riceowl]

At what point will Trump start calling him "Sweaty Betty"?

[IceSpear]

The Castros aren't good candidates, especially Julian. Julian doesn't even speak good spanish and he is hispanic!

Inb4 IceSpear

I actually agree the Castros would probably be meh candidates, but not because #SpeakingSpanishMatters, lol. Just ask Rep-elect Donna Shalala.

[lfromnj]

The Castros aren't good candidates, especially Julian. Julian doesn't even speak good spanish and he is hispanic!

Inb4 IceSpear

I actually agree the Castros would probably be meh candidates, but not because #SpeakingSpanishMatters, lol. Just ask Rep-elect Donna Shalala.

I mean it did affect her but she would literally have to be roy moore to lose a clinton 20 district in a D 9 year that is also open.

[IceSpear]

The Castros aren't good candidates, especially Julian. Julian doesn't even speak good spanish and he is hispanic!

Inb4 IceSpear

I actually agree the Castros would probably be meh candidates, but not because #SpeakingSpanishMatters, lol. Just ask Rep-elect Donna Shalala.

I mean it did affect her but she would literally have to be roy moore to lose a clinton 20 district in a D 9 year that is also open.

I think Shalala only did a few points worse than Nelson/Gillum, and if anything that was due to the constant horrible press she got from the media that desperately wanted her to lose and the fact that Salazar was a much better fit for the district than DeSantis/Scott, not because she didn't speak Spanish.

[lfromnj]

The Castros aren't good candidates, especially Julian. Julian doesn't even speak good spanish and he is hispanic!

Inb4 IceSpear

I actually agree the Castros would probably be meh candidates, but not because #SpeakingSpanishMatters, lol. Just ask Rep-elect Donna Shalala.

I mean it did affect her but she would literally have to be roy moore to lose a clinton 20 district in a D 9 year that is also open.

I think Shalala only did a few points worse than Nelson/Gillum, and if anything that was due to the constant horrible press she got from the media that desperately wanted her to lose and the fact that Salazar was a much better fit for the district than DeSantis/Scott, not because she didn't speak Spanish.

Yeah I still loled at wasserman changing it to Tossups because mclaughlin.

[IceSpear]

The Castros aren't good candidates, especially Julian. Julian doesn't even speak good spanish and he is hispanic!

Inb4 IceSpear

I actually agree the Castros would probably be meh candidates, but not because #SpeakingSpanishMatters, lol. Just ask Rep-elect Donna Shalala.

I mean it did affect her but she would literally have to be roy moore to lose a clinton 20 district in a D 9 year that is also open.

I think Shalala only did a few points worse than Nelson/Gillum, and if anything that was due to the constant horrible press she got from the media that desperately wanted her to lose and the fact that Salazar was a much better fit for the district than DeSantis/Scott, not because she didn't speak Spanish.

Yeah I still loled at wasserman changing it to Tossups because mclaughlin.

I also remember Atlas freaking out because of Muhlaughlin, lol.

[ltomlinson31]

The Castros aren't good candidates, especially Julian. Julian doesn't even speak good spanish and he is hispanic!

Inb4 IceSpear

I actually agree the Castros would probably be meh candidates, but not because #SpeakingSpanishMatters, lol. Just ask Rep-elect Donna Shalala.

I mean it did affect her but she would literally have to be roy moore to lose a clinton 20 district in a D 9 year that is also open.

I think Shalala only did a few points worse than Nelson/Gillum, and if anything that was due to the constant horrible press she got from the media that desperately wanted her to lose and the fact that Salazar was a much better fit for the district than DeSantis/Scott, not because she didn't speak Spanish.

Yeah I still loled at wasserman changing it to Tossups because mclaughlin.

I also remember Atlas freaking out because of Muhlaughlin, lol.

I can't tell what my favourite McLaughlin poll is between that one, this or this.