TX-SEN 2020 Megathread: Early Voting

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I think it will be wither Beto ... or if he gets the Dem Pres Nom... one of the Castros.   

IF...Beto does get the Dem Pres Nominee.... then I actually think one of the Castros would be a strong candidate and would create synergy in Texas with Beto's Pres Bid (especially if Beto were to choose a strong Latina running mate.)  Such a triple combo could actually put Texas in play IMO. ... as you could potentially have unheard of Latino/ Hispanic turnout & support (especially with Cruz not on the ballot... who still got somewhat decent Hispanic support).

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https://twitter.com/mcpli/status/1106654605172244481

Joaquin Castro to enter the Senate race soon, sources say.

I've always thought that a combo of Castro running for Senate (either, but Joaquin is the stronger candidate) & Beto also on the ballot- Texas really does become dead even.  Castro will naturally increase Latino turnout to some degree.  And Trump & Cornyn have much lower approval ratings than Cruz (which is shocking for most ppl outside of Texas). 

So if you start at Beto's 3% loss.  Add a bump in Latino turnout, factor in Trump & Cornyn being less popular than Cruz (& Abbott who was also on the ballot in 2018)- and add a small bump if Beto in the nom/ for being the home state candidate...

This could be the year Texas finally falls. The Texas quinnipiac poll from a couple of weeks ago had Beto:46 ... Trump:47 (and I would imagine Castro vs Cornyn is pretty much the same).

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http://

https://twitter.com/mjhegar/status/1113056854098239488

https://twitter.com/PatrickSvitek/status/1113121974035927046

Personally, I strongly prefer Castro for senate and her giving it another try in 13. She is great and all, but she would not get the Hispanic turnout we need.

What exactly is the justification for why either Castro would spike Latino turnout above/beyond any statewide candidate with a Latino surname? I really don't get it. They're basically the epitome of neutral/generic D and Julian (and I assume Joaquin as well) doesn't even speak Spanish.

There are studies that show that minority candidates do increase turnout (& win a higher proportion) among voter of the same racial minority.  Which I think makes obvious sense.  And the Castros do not have to speak fluent spanish for latino's to identify or connect with them.  It not like you have to speak fluent Spanish to have an authentic understanding of Mexican traditions, customs, etc. (passed on to them growing up in a household with their Latina mom & grandmother... in addition  to being married to Latina wives).  

I've always thought speaking spanish was overrated as the feeling of a cultural connecting factor (both for non-Latinos who speak spanish & 1st generation Latinos who do not speak fluent Spanish.  The former does not elicit a deeper cultural connection to Latinos ... and the latter does not lessen such connection).  In fact, I would guess that the multigenerational family difference regarding language is something that uniquely connects many Latinos (and not something that a 60 year old White Senator from Virginia who happens to speak Fluent Spanish would fully appreciate... this is referencing the crazy notion I heard occasionally in 2016- that Tim Kaine speaking spanish could help connect with Latino voters, etc).

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MJ is the best bet. Should Beto be the nominee, whom will take Biden slot should he chose not to run, MJ can win.

Whats the big deal with Castro, his bro campaign is going nowhere

Castro strikes me as someone who would do much better in a Senate Campaign- where he is sort of the center of attention ... vs in a field of 20 trying to compete to get noticed.  Casto seems like he could be an aggressive campaigner (as a senate nominee)  but doesn't seem like he is good at or enjoys trying to grab the center of attention.