TX-SEN 2020 Megathread: Early Voting (user search)
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  TX-SEN 2020 Megathread: Early Voting (search mode)
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Author Topic: TX-SEN 2020 Megathread: Early Voting  (Read 54111 times)
Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 88,735
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17
« on: November 14, 2018, 05:55:15 PM »
TX is not going Democratic in a Presidential Year.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 88,735
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17
« Reply #1 on: November 15, 2018, 07:38:16 AM »
TX isn't voting for Beto or another Dem. That's why Castro is running for president
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 88,735
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17
« Reply #2 on: November 19, 2018, 03:31:25 PM »
If Dems can make some gains in the 2019 Gubernatorial races like KY and/or MS, the Dems can still win in the rural south.  But, Cornyn is a very intelligent politician, and more skillful at debating, than Cruz.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 88,735
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17
« Reply #3 on: November 22, 2018, 01:23:08 AM »
I doubt Beto does any better than Castro does at the Presidential Level
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 88,735
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17
« Reply #4 on: February 15, 2019, 11:44:04 PM »
Dems have hope in TX as becoming blue: they swept alot of statewide offices. Abbott saved Cruz from a humiliating defeat from Beto
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 88,735
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17
« Reply #5 on: February 16, 2019, 02:00:46 AM »
They won Congressional districts from R holds and won statewide judgeships.

Again, Andrew White may not have beaten Abbott, but the Senate race would had been winnable, with White rather than Valdez as gubernatorial candidate
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 88,735
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17
« Reply #6 on: February 16, 2019, 12:01:47 PM »
This thread is becoming repetetive, point already established.

I am a knowledgeable person, it was an error
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 88,735
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17
« Reply #7 on: February 16, 2019, 03:33:06 PM »
Quote from: Mumph on February 16, 2019, 02:43:18 PM
Fools gold for Democrats, as long as Cornyn is serious 2020 is too early

Why do you say that its fools gold. The wall and immigration reform is only one piece of what Latinos care about.


They are racially profiled by police and closing gun show loopholes and criminal justice reform are other issues they care about. Closimg boarders gets rid of drugs. But, gun violence also contribute to how Latinos vote
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 88,735
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17
« Reply #8 on: February 26, 2019, 08:34:37 PM »
Once again, we can see ticket splitting just like we did in 2018, in which GOPers like Ernst and Collins can win and McSally and Cornyn can lose. Joaquin or Beto can beat Cornyn.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 88,735
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17
« Reply #9 on: February 27, 2019, 12:10:55 AM »
« Edited: February 27, 2019, 01:15:21 AM by olowakandi »
Quote from: Suburban New Jersey Conservative on February 26, 2019, 11:19:02 PM
Cornyn is not safe, but to say that he is DOA or another Nelson is ridiculous, if Trump does not lose Texas, neither will Cornyn. If Trump loses Texas, Cornyn is in big trouble. So right now about 80-90% chance that he is reelected. TX has not turned purple yet, it is still light red, if 2020 is another 2006/2008 then this seat probably flips.

2018 proved this theory false; however, Dems won Congressional races, at the same time: FL, AZ and TX went Red for Gov.

Latinos in FL, AZ, and TX split their votes for Congress; as GOP Govs like Abbott and Ducey won easily. Like the Sessions seat was lost.

FL will be the easiest state for Dems to win for Prez; however, AZ will be easiest, next to CO, for Senate; as a result, with unpopular McSally, who looks like Sarah Comstock.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 88,735
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17
« Reply #10 on: February 27, 2019, 07:36:34 PM »

It would of been a gamble anyways, moves backe to Safe R
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 88,735
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17
« Reply #11 on: February 28, 2019, 01:21:17 AM »
« Edited: February 28, 2019, 01:27:22 AM by olowakandi »
2020 can be a wave election. In 2012, it was a backlash to another Banker, 2020 can be the same.

Just like alot of GOPers are making the same mistake about OH and IA being solid red. TX dont have to vote the same way for Prez as it does for Senate, likewise ME can reelect Collins and Harris win ME.

Harris will be the nominee, not Beto. Martin Heinrich or Sherrod Brown wil be the Veep
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 88,735
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17
« Reply #12 on: March 01, 2019, 09:52:50 AM »
Quote from: Torranski on March 01, 2019, 09:36:20 AM
Quote from: LoneStarDem on February 28, 2019, 12:33:55 PM
Cornyn still wins reelection to 4th term in 2020 & he still has aspirations to become Majority Leader of the United States Senate down the road.

Eh, I think he'd have a fight on his hands to beat Thune.

Dems are favoref to win majority im 2022
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 88,735
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17
« Reply #13 on: March 13, 2019, 08:48:18 AM »
Dems dont have to win TX or AZ to win senate races. Harris-HICKENLOOPER solidify blue wall of 279 electors and states like these can split their votes for Congress and Oval Office.

Dems did well for Congress in 2018 and if it wasnt for Valdez, Beto could of won
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 88,735
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17
« Reply #14 on: March 16, 2019, 06:05:17 PM »
I dont think any Castro will run for higher office again, after Julian Castro's unsuccessful bid for prez.

I think Amy McGrath can be an option and NC aside from CO and AZ
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 88,735
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17
« Reply #15 on: March 16, 2019, 06:07:48 PM »
Joaquin said he wait and see how his bro did as a candidate to run for Senate and Julian is doing poorly
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 88,735
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17
« Reply #16 on: March 17, 2019, 08:46:10 AM »
Castro is good enough to win a Rep seat; but not for prez or Veep
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 88,735
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17
« Reply #17 on: March 17, 2019, 08:04:26 PM »
Quote from: Bernie 2020 on March 17, 2019, 06:54:24 PM
Quote from: LoneStarDem on March 17, 2019, 12:25:40 PM
Which one of the Castro twins run for United States Senator & get spanked by Cornyn ?


Posts like these really make me wonder if you are a troll....
Joaquin did say he would see how well his bro did before he ram for Senate, Julian isnt polling ahead
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 88,735
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17
« Reply #18 on: March 21, 2019, 06:50:14 AM »
AZ, CO and TX are Dems to lose and IA and AL and NC remain competitive. Trump keep hammering away at McCain legacy is making Kelly's job easiest.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 88,735
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17
« Reply #19 on: April 05, 2019, 09:37:07 PM »
« Edited: April 05, 2019, 10:07:21 PM by olowakandi »
New Jersey conservative says that Susan Collins can win in ME and Ernst win in IA, if a Dem nominee carries either ME or IA, but Dems cant win in AZ or GA or TX, if Trump carries the state. Dems are likely to win 51-48, PVI and EC college; if its a Harris-Beto ticket; either Castro or MJ and Kelly and Dem nominee win: CO, TX and AZ and even win AL. As a result, Dems win trifecta: Oval office, House, Senate with a 279-303 prez map
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 88,735
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17
« Reply #20 on: April 05, 2019, 10:24:06 PM »
« Edited: April 05, 2019, 10:32:02 PM by olowakandi »
Dems won AZ congressional seats and TX congressional seats in 2018 while losing statewide office.

Yes, it was a Dem +8 year, but Dems lost OH, FL and IA gubernatorial elections.

Charlie Cook had TX tossup last time around and AZ as well. The Senate can be won. But to say Collins can win in ME while Dem carries the state, but Dems cant win TX, the last poll had it a 47 tie in AZ and TX. No polling in AL.

Dems are doing well in 2019Gov races in KY, MS and LA. We like our chances in AL-Sen
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 88,735
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17
« Reply #21 on: April 08, 2019, 10:34:31 PM »
MJ is the best bet. Should Beto be the nominee, whom will take Biden slot should he chose not to run, MJ can win.

Whats the big deal with Castro, his bro campaign is going nowhere
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 88,735
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17
« Reply #22 on: April 23, 2019, 06:48:14 PM »
MJ Hager will win. GOP and Trump have trouble in Latino states: that's why TX was so close.. The reason why GOP won FL, was due to Rick Scott being popular
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 88,735
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17
« Reply #23 on: April 23, 2019, 07:27:29 PM »
Quote from: SnowLabrador on April 23, 2019, 07:08:50 PM
Quote from: olowakandi on April 23, 2019, 06:48:14 PM
MJ Hager will win. GOP and Trump have trouble in Latino states: that's why TX was so close.. The reason why GOP won FL, was due to Rick Scott being popular

It's silly to think a perennial candidate who's never held elected office can defeat a three-term incumbent Republican Senator, in a red-leaning state, who was Senate Majority Whip last Congress. If anyone's beating Cornyn, it'll be Joaquin Castro, if he runs (which I very much doubt at this point).

If Joe Biden wins a 2012 style Victory, its possible. However, I doubt Harris can.  

John Kelly never held public office and Beto came within 2 points of beating Cruz. Cruz only won due to Abbott's coattails
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 88,735
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17
« Reply #24 on: April 26, 2019, 07:10:20 PM »
Quote from: dotard on April 26, 2019, 05:54:27 PM
Quote from: olowakandi on April 23, 2019, 06:48:14 PM
MJ Hager will win. GOP and Trump have trouble in Latino states: that's why TX was so close.. The reason why GOP won FL, was due to Rick Scott being popular

The reason TX is getting more competitive isn’t because of Latinos, it’s because they’ve had an influx of educated millennia white voters

Cruz beat Beto, laat yr, due to his Latino last name and conservative Latinos you don't find in AZ, CO and AZ
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