TX-SEN 2020 Megathread: Early Voting

[lfromnj]

both the castros don't seem like good candidates and are frankly overrated to me IMO
I want to see beto's margin in the 22nd and the 31st to see how strong MJ Hegar and Kulkarni were as Beto was the strongest liberal Texas democrat since Ann Richards.
I think hegar and Beto would be the strongest 2. Both of them severely outperformed expectations. Garbage nyt poll killed Hegar(I doubt she had a last minute surge considering her hype died after that poll)

[lfromnj]

One person who is apparently already running is Sema Hernandez, who ran in 2018 also and lost the Dem Primary to Beto (she got 24% and won some Hispanic border counties probably mostly because of her Spanish surname). She does not seem to be the most serious of potential candidates, but she might win the primary if nobody else with more of a chance runs:

https://www.crowdpac.com/campaigns/388237/sema-hernandez/updates/2982?source_code=campaign-update-link-2982

If democrats screw up a golden oppurtunity in Texas with Donald Trump on the ballot(at this point Im writing off a double digit Texas win and Hays county 95 percent flips in 2020(even Valdez won it).
They need to focus on a suburban candidate to boost turnout to win that state house. Anything else would be political malpractice after having the most energized democratic base in Texas for 30 years.

[lfromnj]

The Castros aren't good candidates, especially Julian. Julian doesn't even speak good spanish and he is hispanic!

Inb4 IceSpear

I actually agree the Castros would probably be meh candidates, but not because #SpeakingSpanishMatters, lol. Just ask Rep-elect Donna Shalala.

I mean it did affect her but she would literally have to be roy moore to lose a clinton 20 district in a D 9 year that is also open.

[lfromnj]

The Castros aren't good candidates, especially Julian. Julian doesn't even speak good spanish and he is hispanic!

Inb4 IceSpear

I actually agree the Castros would probably be meh candidates, but not because #SpeakingSpanishMatters, lol. Just ask Rep-elect Donna Shalala.

I mean it did affect her but she would literally have to be roy moore to lose a clinton 20 district in a D 9 year that is also open.

I think Shalala only did a few points worse than Nelson/Gillum, and if anything that was due to the constant horrible press she got from the media that desperately wanted her to lose and the fact that Salazar was a much better fit for the district than DeSantis/Scott, not because she didn't speak Spanish.

Yeah I still loled at wasserman changing it to Tossups because mclaughlin.

[lfromnj]

Off topic, but if you had told me before the election that O’Rourke would get 57% in Hays, 51% in Williamson, won Tarrant and Nueces, only lost Denton by 8% and Collin by 6%, AND got about 200k more votes than clinton, I would have predicted he would have narrowly won statewide.

His numbers were quite close to the benchmarks I made before the election. He did very well especially in the Austin and Dallas metros. But he also underperformed by more in some places such as South TX and the Houston area.

Yeah san antonio dems failed bigly. They didnt even nominate candidates for some offices despite the county sweepd this year. Julian castro is a major coward who might have cost the election.

[lfromnj]

https://mobile.twitter.com/JohnCornyn/status/1077930336200417283

Lol imagine endorsing a carbon tax to own the libs. It seems cornyn wont be john culberson 2.0 atleast.

[lfromnj]

I know he’s not popular on this former but about Cuellar? I could definitely see him winning if Cornyn is primaried by a nutcase

Idelogy rarely matters and cuellar would probably lose a primsry coz austin liberals

[lfromnj]

Big Politico write-up on how Cornyn is taking the race extremely seriously

atleast he isn't like Marchant and Woodall who fundraised like 5k while some D house candidates are fundraising in the six digits already

[lfromnj]

Hegar outperformed Clinton by 10 points and I think had the same PERFORMANCE as Beto. She should consider it and would be a solid candidate due to her being a female,military vet, and relatively young,with great charisma,and great fundraising ability.

[lfromnj]

So, Kim Olson (the candidate for Ag Comm in 2018 and came within 5% of unseating Sid Miller) has been tweeting some not-so-vague stuff:

https://twitter.com/KimOlsonTx/status/1086662497749385217

https://twitter.com/KimOlsonTx/status/1090264040591355904


https://twitter.com/KimOlsonTx/status/1093290924619255809


She's also switched her twitter handle from KimOlson4TXAg to KimOlson4TX.

Most Dem operatives I've talked to absolutely adore her, she's a super sweet lady and great in crowds and small groups. She's also still really involved with a bunch of Democrats in the special elections as well as with the legislature.

Mike Collier (the 2018 LG nominee) has also been tweeting non-stop but mostly about the legislature and state stuff; I doubt he wants to run for Senator – it just doesn't seem like his wheelhouse.

Other names I've heard floating around are 2014 gubernatorial nominee Wendy Davis (though I think she's very busy with her advocacy group) and state rep Rafael Anchia (but his name gets mentioned every election cycle so idk.)

>Actually still wasting time in rural Texas for anything but a 250 county tour


The 250 county tour was good for name rec but its that winning Texas will come through increasing margins in the RGV,San Antonio, and Houston and holding Dallas/Austin area.

[lfromnj]

Hegar outperformed Clinton by 10 points and I think had the same PERFORMANCE as Beto. She should consider it and would be a solid candidate due to her being a female,military vet, and relatively young,with great charisma,and great fundraising ability.

Not sure if she should waste her star on a likely second loss in a Senate run. She should try  again for TX-31 and scare Carter into retirement. I doubt the Austin suburbs are going to be gettting any redder anytime soon

yeah she could and if she wins she probably scares LLoyd Dogget too who will 100% lose against her   If the GOP likely has the chance to gerrymander and makes an Austin Sink district(They would be suicidal not to)

[lfromnj]

Hegar > Joaquin

The castro brothers are just lab rats made by the DNC because they wanted to appeal to Hispanics.

[lfromnj]

Moreover, Cornyn is more entrenched than Cruz is and is much less disliked.

People keep saying this, but I don’t think it’s actually true.

The second part is true because literally no one knows him.
>can't be disliked if no one knows you. Taps head

[lfromnj]

Moreover, Cornyn is more entrenched than Cruz is and is much less disliked.

People keep saying this, but I don’t think it’s actually true.

The second part is true because literally no one knows him.
>can't be disliked if no one knows you. Taps head

How can Democrats make up a 200,000 vote deficit? Particularly in a presidential year? And Cruz only won by that narrow of a margin because of his unpopularity. Every other statewide Republican did better than him.

With Beto running for President, this races moves from Tilt D to Tilt D.

What? Texas has not suddenly become a "safe" Democratic state. It is a long way from that.

How can D's make a 200k vote deficit? Simple turn up GOTV. Once a person votes for the first time they are much easier to reach. Beto set up the infrastructure for GOTV and the texas GOP has lost precious resources after losing so much ground in the 5 largest counties. In 00 all of them voted for bush but in 18 all of them voted for Beto.All of those Dallas Lawyers and Houston Oil executives dont have any Republicans to donate to anymore so they have to donate to Democrats now.

[lfromnj]

Moreover, Cornyn is more entrenched than Cruz is and is much less disliked.

People keep saying this, but I don’t think it’s actually true.

The second part is true because literally no one knows him.
>can't be disliked if no one knows you. Taps head

How can Democrats make up a 200,000 vote deficit? Particularly in a presidential year? And Cruz only won by that narrow of a margin because of his unpopularity. Every other statewide Republican did better than him.

With Beto running for President, this races moves from Tilt D to Tilt D.

What? Texas has not suddenly become a "safe" Democratic state. It is a long way from that.

You're right. How do Democrats, who do well with minorities such as Hispanics, do better in a presidential year, when Hispanic Turnout is usually at its height, compared to a midterm, when minority, especially Hispanic turnout craters? How can Democrats get those 200,000 voters? Its not like TX is a rapidly changing state with a rather obvious population boom in Urban metros with large suburbs that are swinging their way. I have no idea

Also, Cruz wasnt unpopular. All polling data showed him to be rather popular. Margins /=/ popularity, otherwise Bill Nelson would have won by 15 points.

Many of the people who voted for O'Rourke did so because of an intense personal dislike for Cruz. Bear in mind that 400,000 Texans split their tickets between O'Rourke, who lost by 3 points, and Abbott, who won by 13 points. It's very plausible to assume that those Abbott-O'Rourke voters approved of the Governor but disapproved of Cruz. And as I've already said, Cruz ran behind every other statewide Republican; even the controversial Dan Patrick did better than he.

As for your overall argument, polls indicated that Heitkamp, Donnelly, and McCaskill were underwater by Election Day, as was Heller. And they all lost. Manchin's approvals were close to a tie, and Tester was just above water, if I recall correctly, and they both won reelection. Patrick Morrisey's loss was, in part, due to his own extreme disapproval ratings: he was underwater by 20 points. And every incumbent who had a positive approval rating otherwise won reelection.

and thats why LG AG and Agricultural commissioner were within 5 points. The only reason Abbot even won by that much is because Loopy Valdez was a complete joke. Despite her being a complete joke she still won Hays and almost won Fort Bend county which used to be Safe GOP counties. Using the gubernatorial as the benchmark is like using Ohio senate and supreme court elections as the benchmark race for Ohio. If the D candidate was better than Loopy Valdez and actually campaigned they would have gotten within 6-8 points.

[lfromnj]

Moreover, Cornyn is more entrenched than Cruz is and is much less disliked.

People keep saying this, but I don’t think it’s actually true.

The second part is true because literally no one knows him.
>can't be disliked if no one knows you. Taps head

How can Democrats make up a 200,000 vote deficit? Particularly in a presidential year? And Cruz only won by that narrow of a margin because of his unpopularity. Every other statewide Republican did better than him.

With Beto running for President, this races moves from Tilt D to Tilt D.

What? Texas has not suddenly become a "safe" Democratic state. It is a long way from that.

You're right. How do Democrats, who do well with minorities such as Hispanics, do better in a presidential year, when Hispanic Turnout is usually at its height, compared to a midterm, when minority, especially Hispanic turnout craters? How can Democrats get those 200,000 voters? Its not like TX is a rapidly changing state with a rather obvious population boom in Urban metros with large suburbs that are swinging their way. I have no idea

Also, Cruz wasnt unpopular. All polling data showed him to be rather popular. Margins /=/ popularity, otherwise Bill Nelson would have won by 15 points.

Many of the people who voted for O'Rourke did so because of an intense personal dislike for Cruz. Bear in mind that 400,000 Texans split their tickets between O'Rourke, who lost by 3 points, and Abbott, who won by 13 points. It's very plausible to assume that those Abbott-O'Rourke voters approved of the Governor but disapproved of Cruz. And as I've already said, Cruz ran behind every other statewide Republican; even the controversial Dan Patrick did better than he.

As for your overall argument, polls indicated that Heitkamp, Donnelly, and McCaskill were underwater by Election Day, as was Heller. And they all lost. Manchin's approvals were close to a tie, and Tester was just above water, if I recall correctly, and they both won reelection. Patrick Morrisey's loss was, in part, due to his own extreme disapproval ratings: he was underwater by 20 points. And every incumbent who had a positive approval rating otherwise won reelection.

and thats why LG AG and Agricultural commissioner were within 5 points. The only reason Abbot even won by that much is because Loopy Valdez was a complete joke. Despite her being a complete joke she still won Hays and almost won Fort Bend county which used to be Safe GOP counties. Using the gubernatorial as the benchmark is like using Ohio senate and supreme court elections as the benchmark race for Ohio. If the D candidate was better than Loopy Valdez and actually campaigned they would have gotten within 6-8 points.

I'm not denying that there has been a definite Democratic trend within Texas. The fact that Valdez won Hays County, and nearly won Fort Bend County, shows that her share was artificially boosted by the 2018 environment, and by O'Rourke's candidacy. Demographic and political trends are changing the state, but it is still a gradual process. I can see Texas voting Democratic at the state level in the next decade, and at the presidential level by the 2030s. But 2020 seems too early for me.

A 200,000 vote deficit will still be very difficult to overcome, and especially so in a year that will have higher turnout than 2018. I would still consider Trump a favorite to win in Texas, and if he wins, Cornyn almost certainly will as well. In fact, Cornyn will probably outperform Trump. The closest I can see a Democrat (i.e. someone like Hegar or Castro) coming against him is ~3 points, the same margin that O'Rourke lost by.

Beto got 180k more votes than clinton in a MIDTERM. It won't be an easy GOTV but there certainly is a path.

And does anybody forget that one of the main reasons Texas trended D so hard was ironically because of the 2016 primary itself.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/evanmcmurry/status/1103049032144961536

lol

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/evanmcmurry/status/1103049032144961536

lol

Lol didnt she even lose Harris County in 2014 lol a county that even Obama won in 2012.

to give credit to her,her senate district was romney +9 and she still got reelected.

[lfromnj]

Our Beloved John Cornyn will carry Texas 134 against whichever far leftist the Democrats put up. FYI this district was +15 Romney.

https://twitter.com/emilshabanovTX/status/1120510745291231232

[lfromnj]

Texas 31st was right of the state as a whole in the senate race although a Democrat would probably win it while winning statewide as it is also more elastic than Texas as a whole.

[lfromnj]

I dont really understand the rational behind this move. If Castro does run, there is no way MJ can stop him. This really only makes sense if she has inside information that Castro wont go for it, but it doesnt appear that Castro is backing off.

Oh well, if she wants to get crushed, its her decision .

I agree Castro is probably the favorite but her base is Austin which is basically the white liberal area of Texas. White liberals are gonna turnout at a much better rate than Hispanics from San Antonio. Also female+decent fundraiser gives her a decent shot.

[lfromnj]

Anyone want to predict a county map

Probably +- some rural heavily low turnout hispanic like Kenedy
Loses Tarrant and Jefferson but holds onto Williamson.

[lfromnj]

Anyone want to predict a county map

Probably +- some rural heavily low turnout hispanic like Kenedy
Loses Tarrant and Jefferson but holds onto Williamson.

Tarrant will go Republican in 2020 as Democrats are not gonna have anywhere near the wave they did in 2018. If they do 2020 could be a 2008 style defeat for the GOP as TX and OH may even flip to the Dems in the Presidential Election and in the Senate Races they lose: CO , AZ, NC, IA, GA, ME, TX along with maybe KS and barely take AL

Im doing it from the Beto map aka Hegar wins Williamson but loses Tarrant.

[lfromnj]

Cornyn is undefeated in overall elections since 1984: Primary, Runoff & General elections.

I am also pretty sure Cornyn is undefeated in the very Republican Hays county Texas.

[lfromnj]

Cornyn should be majority leader not McConnell

You might as well say Schumer at that point lol.