Who is the Dem mystery recruit in TX-24?
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  Who is the Dem mystery recruit in TX-24?
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Poll
Question: Will Kenny Marchant (R) win re-election in TX-24?
#1
He will win re-election
 
#2
He will lose
 
#3
He will retire and a Democrat will win
 
#4
He will retire and a Republican will win
 
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Partisan results

Total Voters: 33

Author Topic: Who is the Dem mystery recruit in TX-24?  (Read 1470 times)
lfromnj
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« Reply #25 on: December 14, 2018, 11:11:30 PM »

He's retiring and a Republican will win the election to replace him.

TBH, Marchant is a stronger candidate than any other local Republican would be. They'd be crazy to replace him and have the seat be an open seat. At least he has some name recognition: there are people who pass exit signs for Marchant Boulevard every day on their commute. (I only mean this last part half-jokingly: given how little the guy does, the highway exit named after him is the main way people will encounter his name, but it is at least a way they're encountering his name)
Ik you live there but I disagree. Marchant seems like another lazy incumvent. If ted poe ran I think he would have only by 5 or 6 points.Crenshaw was a youthful energetic charismatic candidate and he won a tied cruz beto district by 9 points. Depending on the candidate I think the Republican might do better than Marchant .
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The Mikado
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« Reply #26 on: December 14, 2018, 11:46:48 PM »

He's retiring and a Republican will win the election to replace him.

TBH, Marchant is a stronger candidate than any other local Republican would be. They'd be crazy to replace him and have the seat be an open seat. At least he has some name recognition: there are people who pass exit signs for Marchant Boulevard every day on their commute. (I only mean this last part half-jokingly: given how little the guy does, the highway exit named after him is the main way people will encounter his name, but it is at least a way they're encountering his name)
Ik you live there but I disagree. Marchant seems like another lazy incumvent. If ted poe ran I think he would have only by 5 or 6 points.Crenshaw was a youthful energetic charismatic candidate and he won a tied cruz beto district by 9 points. Depending on the candidate I think the Republican might do better than Marchant .

I don't live in TX-24 (though I end up in it multiple times a day almost every day, due to where the lines are), I live in TX-32. But the problem with Marchant is that, while he's a nobody, there isn't really a GOP bench in the area, especially after 2018. The GOP's best hope here is basically praying that Marchant wins in 2020 and drawing him a much safer seat afterwards, which is definitely possible. If he loses, well, redistricting will help because of the obscene growth rate of that area and TX-33's likely exile into becoming a Fort Worth only district in the next cycle. They could make a Dem sink TX-24 containing the West Dallas/Carrollton areas it currently has plus Irving/Grand Prairie from TX-33 and just create a new GOP district anchored in Flower Mound reaching down and scooping up the Tarrant parts of the current TX-24.
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