Democratic Leadership Elections

[new_patomic]

Lol.

Yeah, no, Cheri is pretty safe.

She won 55-45 in 2014, 60-40 in 2016 and 62-38 in 2018.

She ain't gonna be distracted most years, let alone in 2020.

congressmen culberson and sessions agree
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pete_Sessions#Campaigns
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Culberson#Elections

Linking to wikipedia articles isn't the same as an argument.

She's consistently grown her majorities from election to election including what would nominally be considered difficult environments in 2014 and 2016.

While Culberson was winning by 12, she was winning by 20. While his district had shifted all the way over to Clinton +7, hers was a swing district at Trump +1. And there's no evidence to suggest 2020 will be especially difficult for her. In 2018 she won every county, not just the ones with Democratic cities like Peoria or Rockford.

[lfromnj]

Lol.

Yeah, no, Cheri is pretty safe.

She won 55-45 in 2014, 60-40 in 2016 and 62-38 in 2018.

She ain't gonna be distracted most years, let alone in 2020.

congressmen culberson and sessions agree
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pete_Sessions#Campaigns
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Culberson#Elections

Im not saying Bustos is doomed or even in a tossup
But it is on the playing field and the GOP should go for it in 2020 considering its basically IA 2nd and 1st shifted 3 points left.

Again, no. That seat has trended towards her every election.

swung not trend
It trended against this election as 2016 was a R+1 year and 2018 was a D+8 year.

Why can't people just accept that rural seats are in danger. She probably won't lose but Im keeping at Likely D for now.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Lol.

Yeah, no, Cheri is pretty safe.

She won 55-45 in 2014, 60-40 in 2016 and 62-38 in 2018.

She ain't gonna be distracted most years, let alone in 2020.

congressmen culberson and sessions agree
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pete_Sessions#Campaigns
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Culberson#Elections

Im not saying Bustos is doomed or even in a tossup
But it is on the playing field and the GOP should go for it in 2020 considering its basically IA 2nd and 1st shifted 3 points left.

Again, no. That seat has trended towards her every election.

swung not trend
It trended against this election as 2016 was a R+1 year and 2018 was a D+8 year.

Why can't people just accept that rural seats are in danger. She probably won't lose but Im keeping at Likely D for now.

Agreed with lfromnj. Bustos is probably ok for 2020, but it is not even a sure thing. And she would have been in serious danger in a Clinton midterm.

1994, 2006, 2010, 2014, and 2018 are littered with the corpses of members of Congress who had previously had a strong "personal vote," outperformed their district, did better even when it was trending the wrong way, and then lost.

Over the longer term, the only way Bustos is safe is if the district is substantially re-drawn, and preferably drawn at least partly into Chicagoland.

[lfromnj]

Lol.

Yeah, no, Cheri is pretty safe.

She won 55-45 in 2014, 60-40 in 2016 and 62-38 in 2018.

She ain't gonna be distracted most years, let alone in 2020.

congressmen culberson and sessions agree
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pete_Sessions#Campaigns
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Culberson#Elections

Im not saying Bustos is doomed or even in a tossup
But it is on the playing field and the GOP should go for it in 2020 considering its basically IA 2nd and 1st shifted 3 points left.

Again, no. That seat has trended towards her every election.

swung not trend
It trended against this election as 2016 was a R+1 year and 2018 was a D+8 year.

Why can't people just accept that rural seats are in danger. She probably won't lose but Im keeping at Likely D for now.

Agreed with lfromnj. Bustos is probably ok for 2020, but it is not even a sure thing. And she would have been in serious danger in a Clinton midterm.

1994, 2006, 2010, 2014, and 2018 are littered with the corpses of members of Congress who had previously had a strong "personal vote," outperformed their district, did better even when it was trending the wrong way, and then lost.

Over the longer term, the only way Bustos is safe is if the district is substantially re-drawn, and preferably drawn at least partly into Chicagoland.

yeah me saying Bustos is a target in 2020 does not mean she is Collin Peterson. Its just if 2020 is a slightly R leaning year like per say R +3 and it depends mostly on WWC areas swinging hard to the GOP rather than a suburban bounceback Bustos could be in danger. I love how I just posted 2 congressmen who won by large margins in the past 10 years with their presidential nominee winning their district by a large margin in 2012 and people think but BUSTOS IS A SUPER SPECIAL STRONG candidate. She isn't a weak by any means and I can say she is one of the stronger onees but she isn't a god tier candidate who will continue to win by large margins if 2016 trends continue.

[new_patomic]

Regardless trying to prop up the idea that she's plausibly maybe sort of incidentally vulnerable come a future election really isn't a great reason for not selecting her as DCCC chair now. It would be one thing if we knew she were going to vulnerable in 2020, but that's not even the case. She ain't Joe Cunningham or someone else who is probably on a two year rental. And this isn't like the Minnesota 1st district where we knew well in advance it would be tough to keep.

[136or142]

Lol.

Yeah, no, Cheri is pretty safe.

She won 55-45 in 2014, 60-40 in 2016 and 62-38 in 2018.

She ain't gonna be distracted most years, let alone in 2020.

congressmen culberson and sessions agree
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pete_Sessions#Campaigns
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Culberson#Elections

Im not saying Bustos is doomed or even in a tossup
But it is on the playing field and the GOP should go for it in 2020 considering its basically IA 2nd and 1st shifted 3 points left.

Again, no. That seat has trended towards her every election.

swung not trend
It trended against this election as 2016 was a R+1 year and 2018 was a D+8 year.

Why can't people just accept that rural seats are in danger. She probably won't lose but Im keeping at Likely D for now.

The district isn't that rural, from Wiki: Distribution   
73.3% urban
26.7% rural


The Democrats basically got as much of the urban areas of North Western Illinios into the district as they could north of Springfield: much of Peoria, Rockford and the Illinois part of the Quad Cities. 

[Tartarus Sauce]

Bustos strikes me as the first in line to succeed Durbin after he retires, so there's a possibility the question over her viability for holding a House leadership position due to concerns about her district trends might be moot if Durbin ends up retiring in 2020.

[Sherrod Brown Shill]

Wasn't it pretty much accepted that Durbin would retire in 2020 and that Bustos was the heir apparent? Even if she dosen't get DCCC chair it would seem she is not focused on Durbin's seat maybe?

Also, I'm not sure where else to put this, but the Progressive Caucus gained way more seats then I expected, while New Dems will end up not taking on a lot of their watch list people. Is this usual?

[lfromnj]

Lol.

Yeah, no, Cheri is pretty safe.

She won 55-45 in 2014, 60-40 in 2016 and 62-38 in 2018.

She ain't gonna be distracted most years, let alone in 2020.

congressmen culberson and sessions agree
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pete_Sessions#Campaigns
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Culberson#Elections

Im not saying Bustos is doomed or even in a tossup
But it is on the playing field and the GOP should go for it in 2020 considering its basically IA 2nd and 1st shifted 3 points left.

Again, no. That seat has trended towards her every election.

swung not trend
It trended against this election as 2016 was a R+1 year and 2018 was a D+8 year.

Why can't people just accept that rural seats are in danger. She probably won't lose but Im keeping at Likely D for now.

The district isn't that rural, from Wiki: Distribution   
73.3% urban
26.7% rural


The Democrats basically got as much of the urban areas of North Western Illinios into the district as they could north of Springfield: much of Peoria, Rockford and the Illinois part of the Quad Cities. 

ok probably not th ebest wording but lets say medium sized WWC cities like youngstown quad cites in general are trending away. Bustos is safe if they replace some of the district with a tendril into Chicago land which at this point needs to be spread out more for D's.

[136or142]

Lol.

Yeah, no, Cheri is pretty safe.

She won 55-45 in 2014, 60-40 in 2016 and 62-38 in 2018.

She ain't gonna be distracted most years, let alone in 2020.

congressmen culberson and sessions agree
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pete_Sessions#Campaigns
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Culberson#Elections

Im not saying Bustos is doomed or even in a tossup
But it is on the playing field and the GOP should go for it in 2020 considering its basically IA 2nd and 1st shifted 3 points left.

Again, no. That seat has trended towards her every election.

swung not trend
It trended against this election as 2016 was a R+1 year and 2018 was a D+8 year.

Why can't people just accept that rural seats are in danger. She probably won't lose but Im keeping at Likely D for now.

The district isn't that rural, from Wiki: Distribution   
73.3% urban
26.7% rural


The Democrats basically got as much of the urban areas of North Western Illinios into the district as they could north of Springfield: much of Peoria, Rockford and the Illinois part of the Quad Cities. 

ok probably not th ebest wording but lets say medium sized WWC cities like youngstown quad cites in general are trending away. Bustos is safe if they replace some of the district with a tendril into Chicago land which at this point needs to be spread out more for D's.

On the Iowa side of the Quad Cities, Democrat Dave Loebsack has been the Representative since 2006.  In some areas the WWC in medium sized cities are trending away, but the Democrats seem to be fighting back in at least the Northern Midwest.

[CookieDamage]

There should mass protests outside of D.C.! A corporatist hack like Jeffries is no progressive and we should let the neoliberal democrats know we will not accept this kind of corporatism anymore!

https://youtu.be/MhwO9cweUz8?t=69

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Lol.

Yeah, no, Cheri is pretty safe.

She won 55-45 in 2014, 60-40 in 2016 and 62-38 in 2018.

She ain't gonna be distracted most years, let alone in 2020.

congressmen culberson and sessions agree
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pete_Sessions#Campaigns
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Culberson#Elections

Im not saying Bustos is doomed or even in a tossup
But it is on the playing field and the GOP should go for it in 2020 considering its basically IA 2nd and 1st shifted 3 points left.

Again, no. That seat has trended towards her every election.

swung not trend
It trended against this election as 2016 was a R+1 year and 2018 was a D+8 year.

Why can't people just accept that rural seats are in danger. She probably won't lose but Im keeping at Likely D for now.

The district isn't that rural, from Wiki: Distribution   
73.3% urban
26.7% rural


The Democrats basically got as much of the urban areas of North Western Illinios into the district as they could north of Springfield: much of Peoria, Rockford and the Illinois part of the Quad Cities. 

ok probably not th ebest wording but lets say medium sized WWC cities like youngstown quad cites in general are trending away. Bustos is safe if they replace some of the district with a tendril into Chicago land which at this point needs to be spread out more for D's.

On the Iowa side of the Quad Cities, Democrat Dave Loebsack has been the Representative since 2006.  In some areas the WWC in medium sized cities are trending away, but the Democrats seem to be fighting back in at least the Northern Midwest.

Not really. In neighboring IA-01, despite the hype Abby Finkenauer's win ended up pretty underwhelming as compared to how that district had previously voted for Obama in 2008 and 2012. And Dems also lost the Iowa governorship and got BTFO in nearby IN-SEN. That area is generally trending away. Granted, it is not trending away as strongly as, say, southeast Ohio, but it is still trending the wrong way and is more likely to continue trending the wrong way than to reverse.

[136or142]

Lol.

Yeah, no, Cheri is pretty safe.

She won 55-45 in 2014, 60-40 in 2016 and 62-38 in 2018.

She ain't gonna be distracted most years, let alone in 2020.

congressmen culberson and sessions agree
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pete_Sessions#Campaigns
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Culberson#Elections

Im not saying Bustos is doomed or even in a tossup
But it is on the playing field and the GOP should go for it in 2020 considering its basically IA 2nd and 1st shifted 3 points left.

Again, no. That seat has trended towards her every election.

swung not trend
It trended against this election as 2016 was a R+1 year and 2018 was a D+8 year.

Why can't people just accept that rural seats are in danger. She probably won't lose but Im keeping at Likely D for now.

The district isn't that rural, from Wiki: Distribution   
73.3% urban
26.7% rural


The Democrats basically got as much of the urban areas of North Western Illinios into the district as they could north of Springfield: much of Peoria, Rockford and the Illinois part of the Quad Cities. 

ok probably not th ebest wording but lets say medium sized WWC cities like youngstown quad cites in general are trending away. Bustos is safe if they replace some of the district with a tendril into Chicago land which at this point needs to be spread out more for D's.

On the Iowa side of the Quad Cities, Democrat Dave Loebsack has been the Representative since 2006.  In some areas the WWC in medium sized cities are trending away, but the Democrats seem to be fighting back in at least the Northern Midwest.

Not really. In neighboring IA-01, despite the hype Abby Finkenauer's win ended up pretty underwhelming as compared to how that district had previously voted for Obama in 2008 and 2012. And Dems also lost the Iowa governorship and got BTFO in nearby IN-SEN. That area is generally trending away. Granted, it is not trending away as strongly as, say, southeast Ohio, but it is still trending the wrong way and is more likely to continue trending the wrong way than to reverse.

Finkenauer was disappointing, but the Democrats also took the Des Moines based Iowa 3rd district.  The Democrats also did better than expected in Grand Rapids despite having a candidate who didn't raise a lot of money.

Indiana, Ohio (and Missouri) are the Southern Midwest, by my consideration.  The Democrats are doing better in some of the suburban districts in these states, but I agree the medium size WWC cities are trending away.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Finkenauer was disappointing, but the Democrats also took the Des Moines based Iowa 3rd district.  The Democrats also did better than expected in Grand Rapids despite having a candidate who didn't raise a lot of money.

Indiana, Ohio (and Missouri) are the Southern Midwest, by my consideration.  The Democrats are doing better in some of the suburban districts in these states, but I agree the medium size WWC cities are trending away.

Polk County (Des Moines) has almost 500k people. And even so, Dems barely won IA-03.

Kent County (Grand Rapids) has 600k people. Dems made gains there (and also Clinton made gains there in 2016) because they were gaining in the traditionally R Grand Rapids suburbs, not because of any particular strength with WWC whites.

Compare to IL-17, the cities of Rock Island, Rockford, and Peoria are all much smaller than either of those. So it is a very different situation there. Although the part that is really bad about IL-17 is less so those actual cities than all the extra rural areas that they put in to IL-17 because the IL Dems are really pathetic at gerrymandering and can't even do it properly. Redistricting can fix it though, if they learn from their mistakes.

[new_patomic]

There's really nothing wrong with the way IL-17 is districted. It includes 3 decently Democratic cities and most of the rural area in between isn't as Republican as counties in southern Illinois.

Like even when comparing it to IA1 or IA3 it isnt as if Bustos has had as much trouble holding it as Dems have had in those seats.

You can't really call something a screw up when it keeps working without issue.

[lfromnj]

There's really nothing wrong with the way IL-17 is districted. It includes 3 decently Democratic cities and most of the rural area in between isn't as Republican as counties in southern Illinois.

Like even when comparing it to IA1 or IA3 it isnt as if Bustos has had as much trouble holding it as Dems have had in those seats.

You can't really call something a screw up when it keeps working without issue.

I'm sure the Texas gerrymander of Texas 32nd and the 7th wasn't a screw up

[new_patomic]

There's really nothing wrong with the way IL-17 is districted. It includes 3 decently Democratic cities and most of the rural area in between isn't as Republican as counties in southern Illinois.

Like even when comparing it to IA1 or IA3 it isnt as if Bustos has had as much trouble holding it as Dems have had in those seats.

You can't really call something a screw up when it keeps working without issue.

I'm sure the Texas gerrymander of Texas 32nd and the 7th wasn't a screw up

And in those cases we actually have proof that they've become a lot closer at the congressional level?

[Zaybay]

Im sorry, this was really bothering me, but you guys should really differentiate WWC city and WWC rural area, because those areas went in two separate directions.

When it comes to WWC rural areas, you guys would be correct, there was a clear trend away from the Democrats, in states like WV, PA, in the MN-08 district, and so on.

But in WWC cities, there was the opposite effect, a small, but clear trend towards the Ds. This would be places like Erie County, PA, Kenosha county WI, and Scranton, PA. These areas fell hard for Trump and Republicans, but have trended D in 2018. Bustos benefited from these areas going D, which countered some of the rural areas that trended R in her district.

Just wanted to clarify.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

There's really nothing wrong with the way IL-17 is districted. It includes 3 decently Democratic cities and most of the rural area in between isn't as Republican as counties in southern Illinois.

Like even when comparing it to IA1 or IA3 it isnt as if Bustos has had as much trouble holding it as Dems have had in those seats.

You can't really call something a screw up when it keeps working without issue.

I'm sure the Texas gerrymander of Texas 32nd and the 7th wasn't a screw up

TX-07 and TX-32 at the time were also needlessly sloppy jobs. For example, TX-32 could easily have been made less Dem by giving TX-05 some more Dem precincts, and giving TX-32 at least Rockwall County instead, and if so I am not sure Sessions would have lost. Similarly TX-07 was needlessly given some of the most Dem-trending parts of West Houston, when it could have gotten at least a bit of rural areas or more of the more safely Republican parts of North-West Harris County or some rural areas. If they had just put the most strongly Dem white liberal part of Houston (Montrose) into TX-18, then TX-02 also could have helped out TX-07 by taking some other Dem/competitive precincts from it. But they didn't do that because the TX Republicans are obsessed with the idea that no white people should be ever represented by Democrats (see Austin).

As for IL-17, it includes quite a few of the wrong precincts and excludes a lot of the wrong ones in, and takes in more bad rural territory than it needed to.

[lfromnj]

I stand by that Bustos should not be dccc chair as she in a fast trending Trump district

[Citizen (The) Doctor]

Of all the people up for House leadership, the one who deserved the win the most was Barbara Lee. Just so disappointing.

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

I stand by that Bustos should not be dccc chair as she in a fast trending Trump district

LOL, can you stop?

[Zaybay]

I stand by that Bustos should not be dccc chair as she in a fast trending Trump district

Its not really trending anymore so to the Republicans, and it only voted for Trump by 1.

[ON Progressive]

I stand by that Bustos should not be dccc chair as she in a fast trending Trump district

The only top position that anybody cares about is Speaker. No other position really drags down your favorable because they're too obscure.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

I stand by that Bustos should not be dccc chair as she in a fast trending Trump district

Its not really trending anymore so to the Republicans, and it only voted for Trump by 1.

Uh, yes it is? Pritzker only won Rock Island, he lost everything else in the district.