Democratic Leadership Elections
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Author Topic: Democratic Leadership Elections  (Read 25988 times)
Zaybay
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« Reply #500 on: December 11, 2018, 08:52:43 PM »

There is nothing wrong with running Feehan or Londrigan again in races that were decided by less then 1%, lol. Just because it doesn't fit your racist hick narrative doesn't mean it can't happen.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #501 on: December 11, 2018, 09:03:37 PM »

There is nothing wrong with running Feehan or Londrigan again in races that were decided by less then 1%, lol. Just because it doesn't fit your racist hick narrative doesn't mean it can't happen.
Both are useless
MN 1st is safe r.
Il 13th can just add st Clair in 2022 to make a D leaning district so why waste money
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Zaybay
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« Reply #502 on: December 11, 2018, 09:50:12 PM »

We have the Committee assignments:

 https://www.democraticleader.gov/newsroom/121118-3/

Agriculture: Collin Peterson of Minnesota
Armed Services: Adam Smith of Washington
Education & Labor: Bobby Scott of Virginia
Foreign Affairs: Eliot Engel of New York
Homeland Security: Bennie Thompson of Mississippi
Judiciary: Jerrold Nadler of New York
Natural Resources: Raúl Grijalva of Arizona
Oversight & Government Reform: Elijah Cummings of Maryland
Science, Space & Technology: Eddie Bernice Johnson of Texas
Small Business: Nydia Velázquez of New York
Transportation & Infrastructure: Peter DeFazio of Oregon
Veterans’ Affairs: Mark Takano of California
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lfromnj
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« Reply #503 on: December 11, 2018, 09:56:05 PM »
« Edited: December 11, 2018, 10:08:52 PM by Ohio is the New Missouri »

Self owned liberals kicking out Capuano to get a black person
I don't have a problem with occasio Cortez primary despite her being a hp because Crowley was pretty moderate for the district.
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RussFeingoldWasRobbed
Progress96
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« Reply #504 on: December 11, 2018, 10:07:16 PM »

There is nothing wrong with running Feehan or Londrigan again in races that were decided by less then 1%, lol. Just because it doesn't fit your racist hick narrative doesn't mean it can't happen.
Both are useless
MN 1st is safe r.
Il 13th can just add st Clair in 2022 to make a D leaning district so why waste money
No kidding. Hagedorn is a joke and he won in a D wave year with Walz's native son effect on the ballot. The seat is gone. IL-13 is Likely R but I could see Londrigan winning if Trump loses badly(which is possible)
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lfromnj
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« Reply #505 on: December 11, 2018, 10:14:33 PM »
« Edited: December 11, 2018, 10:19:40 PM by Ohio is the New Missouri »

There is nothing wrong with running Feehan or Londrigan again in races that were decided by less then 1%, lol. Just because it doesn't fit your racist hick narrative doesn't mean it can't happen.
Both are useless
MN 1st is safe r.
Il 13th can just add st Clair in 2022 to make a D leaning district so why waste money
No kidding. Hagedorn is a joke and he won in a D wave year with Walz's native son effect on the ballot. The seat is gone. IL-13 is Likely R but I could see Londrigan winning if Trump loses badly(which is possible)

Yeah dccc at their point should split into branches . Offense and defense . I think bustos would be great for defense but she clearly won't be the best on offense. Offense imo should be someone like Scott Peters or Stephanie Murphy  . These people won formerly swingy suburban seats but now dark blue. It's clear they know how to win in suburbs but they don't need to worry about their safe d seats.

Anyway Bustos first goal for a retread should be Gina Ortiz jones imo and mj Hegar and maybe kulkarni. She should not spend any money on a trump district that trended r in 2016 excluding special circumstances. Mj Hegar and Ortiz jones are very strong candidates who both lost due to faulty Siena polls .
Bustos should really try to get more female veterans. Overall the candidates did amazing
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #506 on: December 11, 2018, 10:29:52 PM »

There is nothing wrong with running Feehan or Londrigan again in races that were decided by less then 1%, lol. Just because it doesn't fit your racist hick narrative doesn't mean it can't happen.
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Virginiá
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« Reply #507 on: December 11, 2018, 10:58:15 PM »

Part of the problem I see is that if 2018 was this polarized, 2020 will probably be even more so in most regions. On the other hand, Democrats really need to target places like MN-01 and MN-08 because we've already plucked almost all the low-hanging fruit.

Also keep in mind that just because Minnesota only went for the Democrat by a couple points does not mean it will do that again. If anything, I could see the Democrat's margin ballooning there as Trump's base-only strategy largely locks him into a range close to what he got before and the 2016 anti-Trump vote consolidates against him. That still leaves him well-positioned in MN-01, but not necessarily by a landslide margin. I think House Democrats will over-perform the top, but it's important the district presidential margins aren't too far towards the right.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #508 on: December 11, 2018, 11:04:33 PM »

FYI tim walz barely carried his own district and his opponent came from the Twin cities. If a 6 term incumbent can barely carry his own district in a double digit romp in a blue wave year it's gone.it's not a racist hick theory it is just fundamentals. It's safe r .
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Zaybay
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« Reply #509 on: December 11, 2018, 11:10:01 PM »

FYI tim walz barely carried his own district and his opponent came from the Twin cities. If a 6 term incumbent can barely carry his own district in a double digit romp in a blue wave year it's gone.it's not a racist hick theory it is just fundamentals. It's safe r .

I dont think Safe R means what you think it means. If you want to give it a rating, its lean R.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #510 on: December 11, 2018, 11:13:15 PM »
« Edited: December 11, 2018, 11:20:49 PM by Ohio is the New Missouri »

FYI tim walz barely carried his own district and his opponent came from the Twin cities. If a 6 term incumbent can barely carry his own district in a double digit romp in a blue wave year it's gone.it's not a racist hick theory it is just fundamentals. It's safe r .

I dont think Safe R means what you think it means. If you want to give it a rating, its lean R.
Likely r at best. Trying to compete in this is like competing in deleware at large in 2012.

This race is fools gold . People say why not try? Well the dccc doesn't have infinite money and this should be a reach district maybe but there are still plenty of low hanging fruit if 2020 is a wave that is much more durable. Even if by a miracle the dems flip this seat that means trunp lost so it's basically a 1 term rental with a fair map. Instead going for a district like ne 2nd or like 9 Texas districts on ga 7th or other districts. If Democrats get any serious gain in districts it means trump loses so the gains should be durable as possible. 5 more suburban seats is a much more successful year than gaining 10 WWC seat
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Zaybay
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« Reply #511 on: December 11, 2018, 11:18:06 PM »

FYI tim walz barely carried his own district and his opponent came from the Twin cities. If a 6 term incumbent can barely carry his own district in a double digit romp in a blue wave year it's gone.it's not a racist hick theory it is just fundamentals. It's safe r .

I dont think Safe R means what you think it means. If you want to give it a rating, its lean R.
Likely r at best. Trying to compete in this is like competing in deleware at large in 2012. Feehan isn't even that great a candidate besides being a veteran. He is part carpetbagger I think.

So, doesnt that mean that if Ds fielded a better candidate, it would have stayed blue? Doesnt that mean its not likely R?

I get you like the racist hick argument, but
1. There is much more nuance to it
2. This district, along with the 13th of IL, isnt going to suddenly just become Safe R territory because the Ds didnt win it in 2018(especially considering the margin was very, very, narrow)
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lfromnj
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« Reply #512 on: December 11, 2018, 11:26:22 PM »

FYI tim walz barely carried his own district and his opponent came from the Twin cities. If a 6 term incumbent can barely carry his own district in a double digit romp in a blue wave year it's gone.it's not a racist hick theory it is just fundamentals. It's safe r .

I dont think Safe R means what you think it means. If you want to give it a rating, its lean R.
Likely r at best. Trying to compete in this is like competing in deleware at large in 2012. Feehan isn't even that great a candidate besides being a veteran. He is part carpetbagger I think.

So, doesnt that mean that if Ds fielded a better candidate, it would have stayed blue? Doesnt that mean its not likely R?

I get you like the racist hick argument, but
1. There is much more nuance to it
2. This district, along with the 13th of IL, isnt going to suddenly just become Safe R territory because the Ds didnt win it in 2018(especially considering the margin was very, very, narrow)
Feehan wasn't the best candidate and I think a better candidate could have won there and maybe my safe r rating is a bit of an exaggeration but imo it's not a very durable district that Dems can hold in 2022. It isn't worth dumping money there when helping mj Hegar and Ortiz jones win is a much better idea. The same goes for the GOP. They shouldn't waste money trying to regain texas 7th and ga 6th and instead go for  districts like bustos
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RussFeingoldWasRobbed
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« Reply #513 on: December 12, 2018, 10:03:43 AM »

FYI tim walz barely carried his own district and his opponent came from the Twin cities. If a 6 term incumbent can barely carry his own district in a double digit romp in a blue wave year it's gone.it's not a racist hick theory it is just fundamentals. It's safe r .

I dont think Safe R means what you think it means. If you want to give it a rating, its lean R.
Likely r at best. Trying to compete in this is like competing in deleware at large in 2012. Feehan isn't even that great a candidate besides being a veteran. He is part carpetbagger I think.

So, doesnt that mean that if Ds fielded a better candidate, it would have stayed blue? Doesnt that mean its not likely R?

I get you like the racist hick argument, but
1. There is much more nuance to it
2. This district, along with the 13th of IL, isnt going to suddenly just become Safe R territory because the Ds didnt win it in 2018(especially considering the margin was very, very, narrow)
Feehan wasn't the best candidate and I think a better candidate could have won there and maybe my safe r rating is a bit of an exaggeration but imo it's not a very durable district that Dems can hold in 2022. It isn't worth dumping money there when helping mj Hegar and Ortiz jones win is a much better idea. The same goes for the GOP. They shouldn't waste money trying to regain texas 7th and ga 6th and instead go for  districts like bustos
Agreed
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Chancellor Tanterterg
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« Reply #514 on: December 12, 2018, 12:38:50 PM »

There is nothing wrong with running Feehan or Londrigan again in races that were decided by less then 1%, lol. Just because it doesn't fit your racist hick narrative doesn't mean it can't happen.
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new_patomic
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« Reply #515 on: December 12, 2018, 12:57:51 PM »

Also LOL to the idea of IL-13 being Likely-R.

Or that somehow it'd be 'wasting' resources to spend in a seat we lost by less than a point just because  we can redistrict a better one for 2022.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #516 on: December 12, 2018, 06:14:39 PM »

This means all her key opponents will rally.
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henster
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« Reply #517 on: December 12, 2018, 06:30:22 PM »

So Moulton's rebellion wasn't all for naught he got something at least and I really like the term limit for committees idea.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #518 on: December 12, 2018, 07:21:14 PM »

I wouldn't really group MN-01 and IL-13 in the same category. I could see IL-13 flipping if 2020 is a great year for Dems. MN-01 is obviously safe R. If you seriously believe that Dems can beat a Republican incumbent in a Trump +15 heavily R trending district while Trump is on the ballot when they just failed to win it as an open seat in a D+9 environment while benefitting from Walz at the top of the ticket, you're beyond delusional.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #519 on: December 12, 2018, 07:43:20 PM »

This means all her key opponents will rally.

This strikes me as a reasonable deal. At least it takes Hoyer and Clyburn out of the picture along with Pelosi.
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new_patomic
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« Reply #520 on: December 12, 2018, 08:24:48 PM »

How sure are we that this could pass?

The personal assurance that put her over the top seems to be that she's committed herself to staying on for a max of two more terms.

But Hoyer and Clyburn are going to be free to whip against it.

This could be nothing more than a verbal agreement, really.
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ηєω ƒяσηтιєя
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« Reply #521 on: December 12, 2018, 08:38:20 PM »

The deal should be that if Trump loses re-election - Pelosi, Hoyer and Clyburn have to step down or retire.

If Trump wins re-election - Pelosi gets to remain Speaker until 2022 at the very least. Hoyer and Clyburn HAVE to step down or retire. If they don't then they get voted out.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #522 on: December 12, 2018, 08:40:48 PM »

How sure are we that this could pass?

The personal assurance that put her over the top seems to be that she's committed herself to staying on for a max of two more terms.

But Hoyer and Clyburn are going to be free to whip against it.

This could be nothing more than a verbal agreement, really.

I think she wants to change the rules of the caucus?

If she brings it to a caucus vote, she'll win. Hoyer and Clyburn are lightweights compared to her.
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henster
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« Reply #523 on: December 12, 2018, 11:22:49 PM »

How sure are we that this could pass?

The personal assurance that put her over the top seems to be that she's committed herself to staying on for a max of two more terms.

But Hoyer and Clyburn are going to be free to whip against it.

This could be nothing more than a verbal agreement, really.

I mean it's bad for Hoyer and Clyburn but everyone else I'm not so sure. Who benefits from Hoyer and Clyburn perpetually staying in power besides them?
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #524 on: December 12, 2018, 11:48:45 PM »


God forbid))))
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