Democratic Leadership Elections

[lfromnj]

if 17 people in a letter say no and there are 235 dems(an optimistic estimate Pelosi looks doomed)

[lfromnj]

Every single one of them will be toast in two years if they allow R's to pick the speaker.

Probably not.

Anyways, Pelosi will probably get the numbers she needs. The progressives opposing her don't have a clear unified choice to oppose her besides maybe Barabara Lee, and she's fiercely loyal to Nancy. 

It isn't progressives that are opposing her, it is the centrists.

Like I said, all of them will be toast in two years if they allow the speakership to go to the Republicans. The base isn't going to stand for Democrats who helped tanked their chance to control the legislative agenda.

Progressives were opposing her but I think she consolidated that vote.

[lfromnj]

Every single one of them will be toast in two years if they allow R's to pick the speaker.

Probably not.

Anyways, Pelosi will probably get the numbers she needs. The progressives opposing her don't have a clear unified choice to oppose her besides maybe Barabara Lee, and she's fiercely loyal to Nancy. 

It isn't progressives that are opposing her, it is the centrists.

Like I said, all of them will be toast in two years if they allow the speakership to go to the Republicans. The base isn't going to stand for Democrats who helped tanked their chance to control the legislative agenda.

Progressives were opposing her but I think she consolidated that vote.

Yup.

Now hopefully she picks off the freshmen on this list one by one and then buries Seth Moulton and Tim Ryan back in the political graveyard.

I think Van Drew to Mcadams have a reasonable excuse and even she won't go for them.
Kurt Schrader also probably shouldn't vote for Pelosi but the rest all live in Safe D seats for the future besides Cooper who is gonna get gerrymandered.

[lfromnj]

Here are those signed to the anti-Pelosi letter:



Does not include others who have been equality definitive against here: Conor Lamb, Abigail Spanberger, Jason Crow, Andy Kim, etc.

https://twitter.com/MEPFuller/status/1062834279900741632

Gross

expecting Cunningham Rose Van Drew to vote for Pelosi is stupid.

[lfromnj]

Golden is a no on Pelosi. Which is smart.

I mean its a trump+8 district. These votes are smart. Even Pelosi won't hold major grudges over these votes. The problem for her is that people in safer districts don't want her like Moulton, Tim Ryan, cooper and Fudge and are taking advantage of this.

[lfromnj]

Let's pretend for a minute that this revolt won't be a complete disaster and that they actually do succeed in replacing Pelosi. Would she continue on as a rank-and-file Representative until the next election or would she resign from office?

I think she resigns but not sure as the majority is quite narrow(only 14 votes.)

[lfromnj]

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lol the moderates are going to end up with no power what so ever.

yeah she just rounded up all the progressives in the house . What a playa/

[lfromnj]

FYI kurt scrader is probably in danger in the next R wave. Its barely voted for Clinton by 0.1 points.

[lfromnj]

btw did TJ Cox make an anti pelosi promise?
doesn't matter as once this districts lost its gone forever for the republicans.

[lfromnj]

Actually Ryan used to be awesome. Whatever happened to this Tim Ryan?
https://youtu.be/cgHkXOEGIvU

Didn't he just have a speech a few months ago on the tax bill?

[lfromnj]

A major problem that switched the game was the after ed victories. It looked like low 30s or upper 20s with a single digits majority. Instead it's now 40 seats.

[lfromnj]

Sounds like she is supporting the measure that a bill that has 290 co-sponsors would get a vote on the floor. Which would mean, if it's a 235-200 Democratic majority, it would require 100% of Republicans and 38% of Democrats to get a bill on the floor. Also will allow for votes on amendments if there are 20 co-sponsors from each party.

So if a bill has 289 co-sponsors, it cannot be brought to the floor?

It minimizes the Hastert rule. If 218 democrats want it Pelosi brings it to the floor even if 0 GOP members want it.
Previously even if 200 GOP and 117 dems want it and the 118 dems dont then Pelosi wouldnt bring it

[lfromnj]

Sounds like she is supporting the measure that a bill that has 290 co-sponsors would get a vote on the floor. Which would mean, if it's a 235-200 Democratic majority, it would require 100% of Republicans and 38% of Democrats to get a bill on the floor. Also will allow for votes on amendments if there are 20 co-sponsors from each party.

So if a bill has 289 co-sponsors, it cannot be brought to the floor?

It minimizes the Hastert rule. If 218 democrats want it Pelosi brings it to the floor even if 0 GOP members want it.
Previously even if 200 GOP and 117 dems want it and the 118 dems dont then Pelosi wouldnt bring it

Couldn’t they do a discharge petition anyway?

they could but discharge petitions rarely happen. This makes it much easier. Anyway its highly unlikely any bill that the GOP Fully supports would only get 40% of the dem caucus and it would probably reach 50 anyway.

[lfromnj]

Bustos shouldn't be given the DCCC chairship even if she would be very compotent.
It would be like giving the NRCC  chairmanship to Pete Sessions in 2017.
Her district isn't safe if the NRCC decides to contest it and she will be distracted.

[lfromnj]

Bustos shouldn't be given the DCCC chairship even if she would be very compotent.
It would be like giving the NRCC  chairmanship to Pete Sessions in 2017.
Her district isn't safe if the NRCC decides to contest it and she will be distracted.

Uhhh no? Difference is that Bustos can win big in Rural America while Sessions failed to even win re-election in a suburban district.

If Clinton won the election Bustos might have been the Pete Sessions/Culberson of 2018. Id say she probably wins as the economy would have been good and Clinton woudln't have taken up all the media but Texas 32nd and Il 17th are 2 districts moving in opposite directions
In 2012 the 17th was  #populist +17 Obama district but in 2016 it was a +1 trump
In 2012 the 32nd was an elitist High landpark Romney District +16 but in 2016 it was +2 Clinton.
Both of these districts are trending fast to one side and Bustos along with Maloney should not rep the DCCC. Rather it should be someone like Tim ryan(not tim ryan himself of course) whose district is swingy but is still 99% safe for him RN.

[lfromnj]

Lol.

Yeah, no, Cheri is pretty safe.

She won 55-45 in 2014, 60-40 in 2016 and 62-38 in 2018.

She ain't gonna be distracted most years, let alone in 2020.

congressmen culberson and sessions agree
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pete_Sessions#Campaigns
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Culberson#Elections

Im not saying Bustos is doomed or even in a tossup
But it is on the playing field and the GOP should go for it in 2020 considering its basically IA 2nd and 1st shifted 3 points left.

[lfromnj]

Lol.

Yeah, no, Cheri is pretty safe.

She won 55-45 in 2014, 60-40 in 2016 and 62-38 in 2018.

She ain't gonna be distracted most years, let alone in 2020.

congressmen culberson and sessions agree
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pete_Sessions#Campaigns
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Culberson#Elections

Im not saying Bustos is doomed or even in a tossup
But it is on the playing field and the GOP should go for it in 2020 considering its basically IA 2nd and 1st shifted 3 points left.

Again, no. That seat has trended towards her every election.

swung not trend
It trended against this election as 2016 was a R+1 year and 2018 was a D+8 year.

Why can't people just accept that rural seats are in danger. She probably won't lose but Im keeping at Likely D for now.

[lfromnj]

Lol.

Yeah, no, Cheri is pretty safe.

She won 55-45 in 2014, 60-40 in 2016 and 62-38 in 2018.

She ain't gonna be distracted most years, let alone in 2020.

congressmen culberson and sessions agree
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pete_Sessions#Campaigns
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Culberson#Elections

Im not saying Bustos is doomed or even in a tossup
But it is on the playing field and the GOP should go for it in 2020 considering its basically IA 2nd and 1st shifted 3 points left.

Again, no. That seat has trended towards her every election.

swung not trend
It trended against this election as 2016 was a R+1 year and 2018 was a D+8 year.

Why can't people just accept that rural seats are in danger. She probably won't lose but Im keeping at Likely D for now.

Agreed with lfromnj. Bustos is probably ok for 2020, but it is not even a sure thing. And she would have been in serious danger in a Clinton midterm.

1994, 2006, 2010, 2014, and 2018 are littered with the corpses of members of Congress who had previously had a strong "personal vote," outperformed their district, did better even when it was trending the wrong way, and then lost.

Over the longer term, the only way Bustos is safe is if the district is substantially re-drawn, and preferably drawn at least partly into Chicagoland.

yeah me saying Bustos is a target in 2020 does not mean she is Collin Peterson. Its just if 2020 is a slightly R leaning year like per say R +3 and it depends mostly on WWC areas swinging hard to the GOP rather than a suburban bounceback Bustos could be in danger. I love how I just posted 2 congressmen who won by large margins in the past 10 years with their presidential nominee winning their district by a large margin in 2012 and people think but BUSTOS IS A SUPER SPECIAL STRONG candidate. She isn't a weak by any means and I can say she is one of the stronger onees but she isn't a god tier candidate who will continue to win by large margins if 2016 trends continue.

[lfromnj]

Lol.

Yeah, no, Cheri is pretty safe.

She won 55-45 in 2014, 60-40 in 2016 and 62-38 in 2018.

She ain't gonna be distracted most years, let alone in 2020.

congressmen culberson and sessions agree
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pete_Sessions#Campaigns
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Culberson#Elections

Im not saying Bustos is doomed or even in a tossup
But it is on the playing field and the GOP should go for it in 2020 considering its basically IA 2nd and 1st shifted 3 points left.

Again, no. That seat has trended towards her every election.

swung not trend
It trended against this election as 2016 was a R+1 year and 2018 was a D+8 year.

Why can't people just accept that rural seats are in danger. She probably won't lose but Im keeping at Likely D for now.

The district isn't that rural, from Wiki: Distribution   
73.3% urban
26.7% rural


The Democrats basically got as much of the urban areas of North Western Illinios into the district as they could north of Springfield: much of Peoria, Rockford and the Illinois part of the Quad Cities. 

ok probably not th ebest wording but lets say medium sized WWC cities like youngstown quad cites in general are trending away. Bustos is safe if they replace some of the district with a tendril into Chicago land which at this point needs to be spread out more for D's.

[lfromnj]

There's really nothing wrong with the way IL-17 is districted. It includes 3 decently Democratic cities and most of the rural area in between isn't as Republican as counties in southern Illinois.

Like even when comparing it to IA1 or IA3 it isnt as if Bustos has had as much trouble holding it as Dems have had in those seats.

You can't really call something a screw up when it keeps working without issue.

I'm sure the Texas gerrymander of Texas 32nd and the 7th wasn't a screw up

[lfromnj]

I stand by that Bustos should not be dccc chair as she in a fast trending Trump district

[lfromnj]

anyway lol Im going around twitter and seeing all these Pelosi shills crying that Mcadams, Van Drew and Golden didn't vote for Pelosi.

[lfromnj]

https://www.dallasnews.com/news/politics/2018/11/28/colin-allred-elected-freshman-class-co-president-new-democrats-congress

Not actually leadership
But Collin allred and Haley stevens are the co presidents of the new freshman class of SIXTY SIX seats.

[lfromnj]

Sean Maloney has dropped out of the DCCC chair race.

Good

yeah good he too is in a trump district. It should be banned from being DCCC chair in a district more republican than the national average.

[lfromnj]

Yeah I wouldn't recommend a primary of tim ryan as that could flip in 2020