If Beto accepts Speaking invite to Polk Co Iowa Dem Party....
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  If Beto accepts Speaking invite to Polk Co Iowa Dem Party....
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Author Topic: If Beto accepts Speaking invite to Polk Co Iowa Dem Party....  (Read 1015 times)
SCNCmod
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« on: November 18, 2018, 07:16:50 AM »

If Beto accepts the Speaking invite to Polk Co Iowa Dem Party....  Will he be seen as one of the early favorites in Iowa?
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indietraveler
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« Reply #1 on: November 18, 2018, 09:04:21 AM »

It's probably too early to say until a few months down the road when we have a better idea of who decides to run, but I'd say his team's organizational style gives him an advantage. He should announce sooner rather than later, like during the first quarter of 2019.
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Lognog
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« Reply #2 on: November 18, 2018, 11:30:58 PM »

He's without a doubt thinking about running, he's obviously very ambitious so any sign like this should not be taken as coincidence
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Koorca Ton
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« Reply #3 on: November 18, 2018, 11:36:06 PM »

Honestly, I don't really want Beto to win. I like him as a person, but he hasn't really done anything outstanding. Yeah, he almost won TX, and...?
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #4 on: November 19, 2018, 08:35:45 PM »

Honestly, I don't really want Beto to win. I like him as a person, but he hasn't really done anything outstanding. Yeah, he almost won TX, and...?

Elections are about personality above all else nowadays and he has the kind that can appeal to Democrats of all stripes.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #5 on: November 19, 2018, 08:37:14 PM »

Honestly, I don't really want Beto to win. I like him as a person, but he hasn't really done anything outstanding. Yeah, he almost won TX, and...?

Elections are about personality above all else nowadays and he has the kind that can appeal to Democrats of all stripes.

yeah the fact he beat a nationally endorsed democrat HISPANIC incumbent in a 80% hispanic district as a white man is pretty impressive.
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History505
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« Reply #6 on: November 19, 2018, 11:23:40 PM »

Betomania is going to die down soon.
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SCNCmod
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« Reply #7 on: November 20, 2018, 01:09:20 AM »
« Edited: November 20, 2018, 02:02:12 AM by SCNCmod »

Honestly, I don't really want Beto to win. I like him as a person, but he hasn't really done anything outstanding. Yeah, he almost won TX, and...?

Which Senator's thinking about running have done something outstanding? (Maybe Bloomberg?)  

Beto was in a Band, he was a nanny...he started a Tech company, he was city council in a city with a population bigger than Vermont,  he was a congressman,

and he Ran as a fairly unknown Democrat for Senate in Texas... and managed to generation easily the biggest buzz in the country- even setting a record for the biggest political rally for senate- and ran a successful enough campaign to (I think) get the most ever Votes by a democrat in Texas history (got Over 4 Million votes).

I'd say that pretty well rounded.  But in all seriousness... what he accomplished in his Senate campaign (going from unknown the most Buzz in the country, to getting over 4 Million votes in Texas as a Dem) ... that more than most Senator's can claim.

Its also worth considering that Beto in some ways created More national buzz in his Senate race than Obama did in the Senate race (Obama had the Huge Spring Board of the DNC Keynote address...just after winning his Senate Primary).

Granted- I think some of Beto's Buzz (esp Presidential Buzz) should be credited to Obama's success. ... in that Obama sort of provided a template that Beto fits in better than most others thinking about running (young, great on the campaign trail, tons of Charisma and likeability, and not a decades long resume in Political Office).  One other way that Obama benefits Beto.. is by establishing the narrative of the timing picking the candidate rather than the candidate having a lifelong extended plan of when the candidate will run for President, etc.

One other somewhat related note... Obama lost his 1st bid for Congress in the Dem Primary (as a 2 term State Senator).  Granted- Obama did win a US senate election... but it is worth noting that 1) he was in a Blue state... and 2) Obama basically had no Republican opponent... once all of the SEX Club, etc stuff came out about the Repub nominee- he had to drop out... then Alan Keyes was the scramble replacement (talk about a walk in the park general election opponent- can get much luckier than facing Alan Keyes- Obama beat his 70% to 28%.
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SCNCmod
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« Reply #8 on: November 20, 2018, 02:47:19 AM »
« Edited: November 20, 2018, 02:56:52 AM by SCNCmod »

One other thing that may be useful to keep in mind... is the pretty similar "Experience"  comparison of Beto & Barack...

When Obama announced he was running, his Political experience was:
1996.... Elected State Senator
1998.... Re-elect State Senator
2000.... Lost in Primary for US House election
2002.... Elected State Senator again  (& began running for Senate)
2004.... Elected to Senate (Announced Presidential Bid 2 years into his Senate Term)

So When Obama announced, he had:
----- 6 years as a state senator
----- 2 years as US Senator




If Beto announces, his experience will be:
2006... Elected City Council (A City bigger than the State of Vermont)
2008... Re-elected City Council
2010... Re-elected City Council
2012... Elected US House of Rep
2014... Re-elected US House of Rep
2016... Re-elected US House of Rep
2018... Lost US Senate race

So If Beto announces, he will have:
-----6 years as a City Councilman (El Paso population: 700,000)
-----6 years as US Congressman




*That's pretty close to even regarding political experience


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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #9 on: November 20, 2018, 03:26:19 AM »

Just for the record about losing elections: Most presidents lost one race in their life that defined their views for the subsequent career.

Prime examples (almost all recent officeholders):

- Lincoln lost the 1858 senate election
- FDR lost as Cox' VP in 1920 in a landslide
- Nixon lost 1960 and CA-Gov 1962
- Carter lost the 1966 Dem primary for gov.
- Reagan lost the 1976 GOP nomination (but overperformed against a sitting prez, making him the frontrunner for '80)
- HW lost two senate bids in TX and the 1980 GOP primary
- Clinton lost a bid for congress in 1974 and his reelection as gov in 1980
- W lost a bid for congress in 1978
- Obama lost the 2000 Dem House primary to Bobby Rush

Other major party nominee lost past races: Hillary (2008 Dem primary), Romney (MA-Sen 1994), McCain (2000 GOP primary), Dole (races for prez and VP), Dukakis (Gov 1978).

Summary: Losing an election is not the end of presidential ambitions.
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