Election 2018 Open Thread v2 - Mia, Mimi, Gil, and T.J.

[Gass3268]

Porter's lead surges!



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Old thread: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=306007.0

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Kim up by a thread

Congressman Gil Cisneros.

Wow, and it was even OC that did that, not LA. Still a lot of votes waiting to be reported for CA-39 from LA. So this should be a very easy Cisneros win from here.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Wasserman called CA-45  for Porter.

[ON Progressive]

Kim up by a thread

Congressman Gil Cisneros.

Wow, and it was even OC that did that, not LA. Still a lot of votes waiting to be reported for CA-39 from LA. So this should be a very easy Cisneros win from here.

Remember when Young Kim was a Strong Candidate that would surely win by double digits?

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Wasserman called CA-45  for Porter.

He might as well call CA-39 for Cisneros as well, even though he isn't leading atm.

[lfromnj]

Wasserman called CA-45  for Porter.

He might as well call CA-39 for Cisneros as well, even though he isn't leading atm.

that'll piss of the trumpists who think he knows about the democratic hacking.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Wasserman called CA-45  for Porter.

He might as well call CA-39 for Cisneros as well, even though he isn't leading atm.

that'll piss of the trumpists who think he knows about the democratic hacking.

That is true. Play it safe.

Although, Trumpists did throw their sh*t about "hacking" when the networks called CA for Newsom even though Cox was up 88% with three precincts in.

[Ronnie]

I love that Mimi Walters lost after being so confident about winning that she refused to have any debates with Katie Porter.  Just desserts.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Sad.

https://twitter.com/daveweigel/status/1062874259956133888

[MAINEiac4434]

Kim up by a thread

Congressman Gil Cisneros.

Wow, and it was even OC that did that, not LA. Still a lot of votes waiting to be reported for CA-39 from LA. So this should be a very easy Cisneros win from here.

Remember when Young Kim was a Strong Candidate that would surely win by double digits?

I member

[lfromnj]

Kim up by a thread

Congressman Gil Cisneros.

Wow, and it was even OC that did that, not LA. Still a lot of votes waiting to be reported for CA-39 from LA. So this should be a very easy Cisneros win from here.

Remember when Young Kim was a Strong Candidate that would surely win by double digits?

Those were obvious bullsh**t having Trump at even approval. Hmm its almost like illegal border crossers are just as underpolled as racist white hicks in Missouri and Indiana.
She still was a decent candidate keeping an open seat this close. Parties really should give up on open seats won by the losing president in a midterm. There is just little way they can hold these seats unless the candidate is God tier level and the district/state is VERY different downballot such as Manchin WV 2010.

[Devout Centrist]

Mia Love is one of the few R's I'm rooting for this cycle.

Why?

I’m sure it’s because her policy positions and definitely not because of her skin color and gender

Yes, her skin color factors into it. We need more black Republicans, as I've said before. If you have a problem with that, you can take a hike.

No, we most certainly do not need any more Republicans

[Pericles]

Sad.

https://twitter.com/daveweigel/status/1062874259956133888

Lmao.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Anyone have any insight into TX-23? How many absentees are left? Ortiz-Jones attended new member orientation.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Anyone have any insight into TX-23? How many absentees are left? Ortiz-Jones attended new member orientation.

Provisional ballots are being counted, but a judge denied more time to count them and a deadline is coming up.

[henster]

Anyone have any insight into TX-23? How many absentees are left? Ortiz-Jones attended new member orientation.

Provisional ballots are being counted, but a judge denied more time to count them and a deadline is coming up.

I saw McAdams was there too, I know people in close races can attend orientation but it must suck to get that experience knowing you won't be back again as a Rep.

[ON Progressive]

Glad Porter won. Not because of anything to do with her but because Mimi Walters had one of the most insufferable attitudes about her district voting for Clinton being a fluke of any of the Clinton seat Republicans

Yeah. I have a particular strong dislike of her, and that’s no small part of why.

[DINGO Joe]

Sad.

https://twitter.com/daveweigel/status/1062874259956133888

Well, who could expect the RNC to know anything about elections?

[IceSpear]

Looks like CA-48 won't end up being all that close.

[Gass3268]

Remember the concern trolling before the election that the Democrats were going to lose all these seats in Orange County because so many more Registered Republicans had returned their ballots than Registered Democrats?

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

This guy from the Salt lake Tribune still thinks McAdams is on course to (maybe) win UT-04 (albeit very narrowly, and it is pretty much tied):

https://twitter.com/RobertGehrke/status/1062867660445306882



Dave Wasserman thinks that is implausible, because turnout is then substantially higher in Salt Lake County than in Utah County:

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1062883618937139200

The point that 100% of 2016 is different from 80% is true... And if we were comparing to an election that was a longer time ago, the population growth point would be a good point... but I don't think the population growth point is actually SUCH a great point here, because it has only been 2 years since 2016. The growth is not going to be THAT disproportionate in just a span of 2 years. And Salt Lake County is also growing (10.3% since 2010).

So could it just be that turnout in Utah County is in fact substantially lower than in Salt Lake County? That could (maybe) be the case if there are a lot of Mormons who normally vote R who are ... less... fired up than other base Republicans about voting in the era of Trump. Mormons are much more pro-immigration, so they may have been disgusted by Trump's caravan antics. While that may have driven up turnout among other GOP base voters, it may not have worked so well in turning out Mormons.

If so, then what are you left with in UT-04? A Dem base that is super-charged to vote, and an R base that is not so much. If that is the case, you would maybe expect substantially higher turnout in Salt Lake County.

I would think the guy from the Salt Lake Trib would have checked the #s he is posting with local election officials, so perhaps the turnout really is just that different.

The good news here would be that if that is so, then McAdams can still win (maybe).

The bad news is that means he will be more likely to lose in 2020, when the turnout may not be so uneven. On the other hand though, in 2020 Trump will be on the ballot and Romney will not, so that may help McAdams.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I'm not even sure Walters could have beaten Ron Varasteh in a rematch lol.

[lfromnj]

Looks like CA-48 won't end up being all that close.

OOF. Anyway yeah the russia scandal didn't help. I think of any of the orange county seats that flips back at all it will probably be the 48th. If the commision wants to help republicans they might just make the 49th 39th and 45th more D but make the 48th more R.

[Antonio the Sixth]

What are you talking about? The CA redistricting commission is explicitly banned from taking political considerations into account in any way (as it should be).

[Tintrlvr]

Kern has only updated once since election night (or early on 11/9), so there should be another vote dump coming.

Kern has a little over 22,000 votes outstanding. Not all of those will be in this district; maybe 8,000 will be. They include some late VBM ballots but are mostly provisionals. (While the California SOS is not always the most up-to-date source on remaining ballots, it says Kern was updated on 11/11 when the county last reported updated totals on 11/9, so I'm fairly confident that the numbers here are accurate for Kern.)

There are some but significantly fewer ballots left in Kings County (about 5,000), mostly late VBMs but also some provisionals.

Unclear if there are any ballots left in Fresno County since the last update to the CA SOS was on 11/9 so does not reflect today's report. If I had to guess, I'd say they're probably done on late VBMs but have not reported provisionals.

Tulare County is only a very small part of the district but still has a lot of ballots outstanding overall, though most will be from outside of CA-21.

For what it's worth, I don't think any provisionals have been counted yet in any of the counties in the district (or, at least, not in Kern or Kings; perhaps some were in today's report from Fresno), so we can't say much about how they will break with any certainty. However, based on history in the heavily Latino counties of the Central Valley, Cox will probably win the provisionals even in Kings. Late VBM ballots will probably be about the same breakdowns as what has been reported over the last few days thus far, i.e., Valadao wins them in Kings by a wide margin and Cox wins them in Kern by an even wider margin.

https://elections.cdn.sos.ca.gov/statewide-elections/2018-general/unprocessed-ballots-report.pdf?_ga=2.46213028.2001522264.1542155537-1293758651.1542155537