Election 2018 Open Thread v2 - Mia, Mimi, Gil, and T.J.

[Tintrlvr]

https://mobile.twitter.com/AP_Politics/status/1065033426506522624

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6YMPAH67f4o

100%.
To think that I wrote this seat off once Romney announced.
It’s crazy to think that Love managed to lose a heavily-gerrymanderred R-leaning seat as many times as she won it.
Almost as weird as the fact that both times coincided with Mitt ‘King of Utah’ Romney’s presence on the ballot. Maybe there’s a quiet anti-Mitt vote in Salt Lake?

If she were a Dem, you guys would be screaming about how racist Utah is for not voting for her. I, for one, am not celebrating that the only black Republican in the House has lost, someone who was mocked by Trump for opposing his bigotry. Yeah, I know we don't need more Republicans and all, and if a future piece of legislation or big vote comes down to one Congressman named McAdams, it might be a good thing, but somehow I doubt it.

There's another black Republican in the House, although he almost lost reelection this year.

[Brittain33]

If she were a Dem, you guys would be screaming about how racist Utah is for not voting for her.

I do expect that racism played a factor in her narrow losses, and that's nothing to celebrate. *shrug*

[lfromnj]

If she were a Dem, you guys would be screaming about how racist Utah is for not voting for her.

I do expect that racism played a factor in her narrow losses, and that's nothing to celebrate. *shrug*

Although it might have cost the election I doubt it explains the significant under performance relative to the district.

[IceSpear]

Mia Love was so opposed to Trump's bigotry that she voted with him 99% of the time. Very brave of her.

[Rookie Yinzer]

I, for one, am not celebrating that the only black Republican in the House has lost, someone who was mocked by Trump for opposing his bigotry.

Demographic representation means NOTHING if the person who is there is voting against the best interest of said demographic.

[Beet]

Mia Love was so opposed to Trump's bigotry that she voted with him 99% of the time. Very brave of her.

"Voted with him". Yeah most of those votes were standard party line votes on things like the budget and procedural matters. I can disagree with her on the size of government, but that's more tolerable than disagreeing with someone who dislikes me for being born the wrong skin color.

I, for one, am not celebrating that the only black Republican in the House has lost, someone who was mocked by Trump for opposing his bigotry.

Demographic representation means NOTHING if the person who is there is voting against the best interest of said demographic.

So should white people vote in the "interest of [their] demographic"?

[Pericles]

Mia Love was so opposed to Trump's bigotry that she voted with him 99% of the time. Very brave of her.

"Voted with him". Yeah most of those votes were standard party line votes on things like the budget and procedural matters. I can disagree with her on the size of government, but that's more tolerable than disagreeing with someone who dislikes me for being born the wrong skin color.

I, for one, am not celebrating that the only black Republican in the House has lost, someone who was mocked by Trump for opposing his bigotry.

Demographic representation means NOTHING if the person who is there is voting against the best interest of said demographic.

So should white people vote in the "interest of [their] demographic"?

If you're asking if white people should vote Democratic, the answer is yes.

[Xing]

Not exactly the same thing when a black candidate loses to a white candidate who doesn't run on racism. How many people talked about how racist Nevada was for kicking out Horsford in 2014? No one, because Hardy managed to not run as a racist, unlike a certain Governor-elect from a certain penis-shaped state.

[DrScholl]

https://mobile.twitter.com/AP_Politics/status/1065033426506522624

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6YMPAH67f4o

100%.
To think that I wrote this seat off once Romney announced.
It’s crazy to think that Love managed to lose a heavily-gerrymanderred R-leaning seat as many times as she won it.
Almost as weird as the fact that both times coincided with Mitt ‘King of Utah’ Romney’s presence on the ballot. Maybe there’s a quiet anti-Mitt vote in Salt Lake?

If she were a Dem, you guys would be screaming about how racist Utah is for not voting for her. I, for one, am not celebrating that the only black Republican in the House has lost, someone who was mocked by Trump for opposing his bigotry. Yeah, I know we don't need more Republicans and all, and if a future piece of legislation or big vote comes down to one Congressman named McAdams, it might be a good thing, but somehow I doubt it.

Democrats are racist for not letting her run unopposed.

[Beet]

Democrats are racist for not letting her run unopposed.

Not everything is about your political party. Her loss is not a bad reflection on Democrats, but it is a sad event for America. If you're a partisan Democrat and that's all you really care about, go ahead and celebrate McAdams' win. You should. It's as an American that I feel sad about it.

As long as we have a two party system, ceding the Republican Party to racism means racism will never be effectively neutered in our society.

[ag]

As long as we have a two party system, ceding the Republican Party to racism means racism will never be effectively neutered in our society.

I mean, it would be nice if the Grand Anglo White Party were not racist, but GAWP being what it is, what can one do?

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

Lauren Underwood is the reverse of Mia Love.

#ByeMia

[DrScholl]

Democrats are racist for not letting her run unopposed.

Not everything is about your political party. Her loss is not a bad reflection on Democrats, but it is a sad event for America. If you're a partisan Democrat and that's all you really care about, go ahead and celebrate McAdams' win. You should. It's as an American that I feel sad about it.

As long as we have a two party system, ceding the Republican Party to racism means racism will never be effectively neutered in our society.

The Republican Party controls who it is ceded to.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

So much for rising star Mia Love! I remember when I said she would be a future presidential candidate lol. Guess that's not happening... Adios!

[new_patomic]

It would have been nice had Mia Love represented literally any other district in Utah, since there's no chance of us winning those and less diversity isn't exactly good, but alas.

[NOVA Green]

So now that we have the final numbers in from Utah CD-04 Time to go back and review what happened in Salt Lake County CD-04.

Let's Start with Turnout by Place compared to the 2016 Presidential Election....

So here's the Table:



Here's the Graphical version:

 

So as expected overall voter turnout fell from 82% in the US-Presidential Election, and dropped down to a still impressive 79% for the CD-04 House Election.

We see the biggest Turnout drop in the heavily Republican communities of South Jordan, Herriman, Riverton, and Bluffdale.

The only place where voter turnout increased versus the 2016 Presidential Election is in the fast growing, and potentially a future Democratic Stronghold within Salt Lake County of Millcreek.

We also saw only minor drops in Turnout in the overwhelmingly Democratic precincts in Salt Lake City, and South Salt Lake City, which although they account for a relatively small chunk of the Vote Share within the District and County, do start to add up once you get heavily DEM margins.

Many of the other Cities where Trump lost to HRC by a plurality with a huge McMullin/Johnson 3rd Party Vote, such as Midvale, West Valley City, and Murray, saw a relatively minor drop-off in Turnout.

Holladay, which other than SLC and SSL, and Millcreek, was the only place where HRC gained over 50% of the Vote, had a relatively low drop in Turnout.

Now, let's look at something I mentioned a few days back, but most of you that were just skimming through wouldn't have necessarily caught it....

The fundamental composition of voters by Place within Salt Lake County CD-04 has changed dramatically since Millcreek went from an UNINC CDP to a CITY in DEC '16.



Basically what we see here is a City that came virtually out of nowhere, that virtually doubled it's vote share between '16 and '18, and additionally was already a 53-24 HRC City in '16, where RV surged, as well as DEM swings and Turnout.

This is likely something that caught PUBS in CD-04 unawares, regardless of whatever enthusiasm gap may have existed in Republican strongholds within the overall district.

Here's a 2016 to 2018 RV Graph I posted a few days back that more visually shows what population changes has been taking place in the Salt Lake County portion of the District....



Ok--- now let's take a look at the 2016 PRES vs 2018 CD-04 REP in an Excel Table for raw numbers:



What is fascinating here, is the only place where Republicans actually gained raw vote margins in CD-04 compared to the 2016 PRES election was, * drum roll* a dramatic + 92 NET PUB voters in Herriman....

Even in the heavily PUB communities of Bluffdale, Riverton, and South Jordan, DEMS managed to actually increase their Net Vote Totals....

What that means is likely some of the McMullen voters might have set out the election rather than vote DEM, compared to other parts of the Salt Lake County (IDK I'll let some of my comrades and Mormon DEMs speak to that subject).

So let's look at the 2016 Presidential Results by Place to see where the 3rd Party Votes were most heavily concentrated with Salt Lake County CD-04:



Interesting, so the places with the highest 3rd Party Votes for US-PRES in '16 also had some of the lowest Turnout numbers (?)

I could post an updated swing stacked column graph by place to represent, the changed results from the final Salt Lake County vote dumps Yesterday and official numbers from today, and it will likely look much worse for Republicans....

Here is the chart I posted after the Friday 11/16 Update, and quite frankly will look less favorable to the PUBs once the final raw numbers from a traditionally heavily Republican district in South Salt Lake Suburban / Exurban start to kick in...



Gray is McMullen / Johnson/ Stein / Pink etc, but it does appear that in most of CD-04 in Salt Lake County 3rd Party voters swung overwhelmingly McAdams, while some voters that could not bring themselves to vote for a Democrat, sat out the CD-04 election (Haven't run over-vote under-vote by precinct and municipality yet).

For any of those out there, the only reason, I have spent so much time on Salt Lake County, is simply, that it is one of those Counties that posts detailed election results by precinct on a regular basis (This is what Democracy looks like folks), whereas I have virtually zero visibility on Utah County.... Still looking forward to pulling the precinct data from all of Utah here in a few short weeks, and looking at a few numbers.

I could do a grand finale... but I will allow the raw data to speak for itself, and "let everyone jump to their own conclusion map" (Office Space ref), but more interested in what observations those closer to the street in Metro SLC have about what is really an extraordinary event.

[Thatkat04]

So much for rising star Mia Love! I remember when I said she would be a future presidential candidate lol. Guess that's not happening... Adios!

I wouldnt count her out yet. I could easily see her getting the republican nomination in 2020 and winning in a rematch.

[Badger]

Yeah, I never understood why people thought Valadao and Hurd were unbeatable juggernauts. I didn’t even move these races out of the Toss-up category when it appeared that Democrats had given up on CA-21/TX-23.

Valadao made sense given his past margins and his 28 point win in the jungle primary. Hurd... not sure what they were smoking there with the absurd Hurd +15 polls in samples where Trump was popular

This. FWIW, I think Hurd and, if he pulls it out, Valadao are top targets next time with presidential level Hispanic turnout.

[Badger]

Was not expecting that Utah drop.

Democrats could actually get to 40 seats.

I'd love to pull out a 42nd seat to drop the GOP under 200.

[NOVA Green]

Yeah, I never understood why people thought Valadao and Hurd were unbeatable juggernauts. I didn’t even move these races out of the Toss-up category when it appeared that Democrats had given up on CA-21/TX-23.

Valadao made sense given his past margins and his 28 point win in the jungle primary. Hurd... not sure what they were smoking there with the absurd Hurd +15 polls in samples where Trump was popular

This. FWIW, I think Hurd and, if he pulls it out, Valadao are top targets next time with presidential level Hispanic turnout.

It will be interesting, unfortunately, Bexar County hasn't posted precinct level results, so I can't compare/contrast with TX-CD-23 at this point compared to previous precinct data that I posted a few Months back on TX-CD-23.

I guess I could likely pull the Vote Share data by County between '16 and '18, but without being able to run precinct level data compared against RVs, it might be less useful than otherwise might be the case....

Agreed, that TX-23 and CA-21 in 2020 will likely be tests of any potential Anti-Trump surge among Latinos in 2020 (Although there are certainly CDs elsewhere that perhaps might be more informative, especially when it comes to turnout among Working Class Latino Voters, but we're not quite there yet until we start to get greater precinct level data from various places....

[Sestak]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1065107459222749184

[Badger]

https://mobile.twitter.com/AP_Politics/status/1065033426506522624

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6YMPAH67f4o

100%.
To think that I wrote this seat off once Romney announced.
It’s crazy to think that Love managed to lose a heavily-gerrymanderred R-leaning seat as many times as she won it.
Almost as weird as the fact that both times coincided with Mitt ‘King of Utah’ Romney’s presence on the ballot. Maybe there’s a quiet anti-Mitt vote in Salt Lake?

If she were a Dem, you guys would be screaming about how racist Utah is for not voting for her. I, for one, am not celebrating that the only black Republican in the House has lost, someone who was mocked by Trump for opposing his bigotry. Yeah, I know we don't need more Republicans and all, and if a future piece of legislation or big vote comes down to one Congressman named McAdams, it might be a good thing, but somehow I doubt it.

There's another black Republican in the House, although he almost lost reelection this year.

And likely will in 2020.

<Sigh> I kinda like Hurd. I wish he were in a safe R seat instead of almost any other TX congresscritter in such districts.

Maybe he could move to Galveston and primary Gohmert?

It would have been nice had Mia Love represented literally any other district in Utah, since there's no chance of us winning those and less diversity isn't exactly good, but alas.

This too.

[NOVA Green]

So now that we have the final numbers in from Utah CD-04 Time to go back and review what happened in Salt Lake County CD-04.

Let's Start with Turnout by Place compared to the 2016 Presidential Election....

So here's the Table:



Here's the Graphical version:

 

So as expected overall voter turnout fell from 82% in the US-Presidential Election, and dropped down to a still impressive 79% for the CD-04 House Election.

We see the biggest Turnout drop in the heavily Republican communities of South Jordan, Herriman, Riverton, and Bluffdale.

The only place where voter turnout increased versus the 2016 Presidential Election is in the fast growing, and potentially a future Democratic Stronghold within Salt Lake County of Millcreek.

We also saw only minor drops in Turnout in the overwhelmingly Democratic precincts in Salt Lake City, and South Salt Lake City, which although they account for a relatively small chunk of the Vote Share within the District and County, do start to add up once you get heavily DEM margins.

Many of the other Cities where Trump lost to HRC by a plurality with a huge McMullin/Johnson 3rd Party Vote, such as Midvale, West Valley City, and Murray, saw a relatively minor drop-off in Turnout.

Holladay, which other than SLC and SSL, and Millcreek, was the only place where HRC gained over 50% of the Vote, had a relatively low drop in Turnout.

Now, let's look at something I mentioned a few days back, but most of you that were just skimming through wouldn't have necessarily caught it....

The fundamental composition of voters by Place within Salt Lake County CD-04 has changed dramatically since Millcreek went from an UNINC CDP to a CITY in DEC '16.



Basically what we see here is a City that came virtually out of nowhere, that virtually doubled it's vote share between '16 and '18, and additionally was already a 53-24 HRC City in '16, where RV surged, as well as DEM swings and Turnout.

This is likely something that caught PUBS in CD-04 unawares, regardless of whatever enthusiasm gap may have existed in Republican strongholds within the overall district.

Here's a 2016 to 2018 RV Graph I posted a few days back that more visually shows what population changes has been taking place in the Salt Lake County portion of the District....



Ok--- now let's take a look at the 2016 PRES vs 2018 CD-04 REP in an Excel Table for raw numbers:



What is fascinating here, is the only place where Republicans actually gained raw vote margins in CD-04 compared to the 2016 PRES election was, * drum roll* a dramatic + 92 NET PUB voters in Herriman....

Even in the heavily PUB communities of Bluffdale, Riverton, and South Jordan, DEMS managed to actually increase their Net Vote Totals....

What that means is likely some of the McMullen voters might have set out the election rather than vote DEM, compared to other parts of the Salt Lake County (IDK I'll let some of my comrades and Mormon DEMs speak to that subject).

So let's look at the 2016 Presidential Results by Place to see where the 3rd Party Votes were most heavily concentrated with Salt Lake County CD-04:



Interesting, so the places with the highest 3rd Party Votes for US-PRES in '16 also had some of the lowest Turnout numbers (?)

I could post an updated swing stacked column graph by place to represent, the changed results from the final Salt Lake County vote dumps Yesterday and official numbers from today, and it will likely look much worse for Republicans....

Here is the chart I posted after the Friday 11/16 Update, and quite frankly will look less favorable to the PUBs once the final raw numbers from a traditionally heavily Republican district in South Salt Lake Suburban / Exurban start to kick in...



Gray is McMullen / Johnson/ Stein / Pink etc, but it does appear that in most of CD-04 in Salt Lake County 3rd Party voters swung overwhelmingly McAdams, while some voters that could not bring themselves to vote for a Democrat, sat out the CD-04 election (Haven't run over-vote under-vote by precinct and municipality yet).

For any of those out there, the only reason, I have spent so much time on Salt Lake County, is simply, that it is one of those Counties that posts detailed election results by precinct on a regular basis (This is what Democracy looks like folks), whereas I have virtually zero visibility on Utah County.... Still looking forward to pulling the precinct data from all of Utah here in a few short weeks, and looking at a few numbers.

I could do a grand finale... but I will allow the raw data to speak for itself, and "let everyone jump to their own conclusion map" (Office Space ref), but more interested in what observations those closer to the street in Metro SLC have about what is really an extraordinary event.

So for what it's worth, I think this election can be officially counted as "cashed out:...

[justfollowingtheelections]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1065107459222749184

Isn't the owner of Whole Foods a hardcore Republican?  I remember him calling the ACA fascism if I'm not mistaken.

[Panda Express]

I hope they start pushing "orientation" for newcomers back so we don't get more situations like this...

 Young Kim: I had a great time at orientation for newly elected representatives! I got to walk the hallowed halls of Congress and I made a lot of new friends! I was shown where the cafeteria is and I got my ID number for clocking in/out. I can't wait to be a congresswoman this January!