Net change from Trump's 2016 margin versus Trump's 2017-18 average approval.
For
Clinton states:
Oregon: -5.0%
Rhode Island: -3.2%
Washington: -2.8%
Connecticut: -2.1%
Delaware: +0.6%
New Jersey: +0.7%
New Mexico: +0.7%
Vermont: +1.2%
Illinois: +1.4%
Average: +1.5%Massachusetts: +1.8%
Maryland: +4.3%
Hawaii: +5.2%
New York: +8.0%
California: +10.0%
For
battleground states (within 6%points):
Minnesota: -11.5%
Wisconsin: -10.7%
New Hampshire: -10.6%
Michigan: -9.0%
Colorado: -5.4%
Average: -4.5%Pennsylvania: -4.1%
Maine: -3.7%
Arizona: -1.7%
North Carolina: -0.7%
Nevada: +0.3%
Georgia: +1.0%
Virginia: +2.5%
Florida: +3.7% (pre felon enfranchisement)
For
Trump states:
weak Trump states (8% to 21%)Iowa: -15.3%
Utah: -13.7%
Indiana: -12.7%
Missouri: -12.3%
Kansas: -12.3%
Montana: -12.1%
Ohio: -9.0%
Average: -8.3%South Carolina: -3.0%
Alaska: -1.9%
Texas: -0.7%
Louisiana: +0.9%
Mississippi: +1.2%
strong Trump states (25%+)North Dakota: -27.3%
Oklahoma: -18.8%
West Virginia: -18.5%
Nebraska: -17.6%
South Dakota: -17.0%
Idaho: -16.5%
Wyoming: -15.8%
Average: -15.5%Kentucky: -14.3%
Arkansas: -12.3%
Tennessee: -9.8%
Alabama: -2.3%
9 out of the 13 battleground states from 2016 have become more negative towards Trump over the past two years.
It's remarkable how much more popular Trump is today in California and New York compared to in 2016. Reversely it's also remarkable that Trump is even more distasted in Oregon than his already low level in Oregon (and to a lesser degree in Washington) in 2016. More importantly, it's interesting to witness Oregon and Washington on one hand, and California on the other hand, going in completely different directions.
Deep Southern states like Mississippi and Louisiana seem even more fan of Trump today than they were in 2016. An oil rich, yet fairly protestant state like North Dakota, which has a lot of ancestry and broader culture in common with Minnesota, Wisconsin and Iowa, seems to be getting off the Trump wagon to a large extent. Same with the three other midwestern neighbours I just mentioned.
Of all states, Trump has gained the most in California, while he has lost by far the most in North Dakota, a state where he did tremendously well in 2016.
The numbers above give us this preliminary trend map - grey states are not likely to trend much either way:
PS: I would personally caution against the blue, Republican trends in Florida (in particular because of the much-mentioned enfranchisement), Texas (because of huge Democratic efforts to register millions of new voters) and Arizona (because Trump's anti immigrant rhethoric is particularily unwelcome in this state). Otherwise, the map seems fairly balanced to me.
In one sentence: The south will mostly become more Republican, with some exceptions, while the north will mostly become more Democratic, with some exceptions, possibly in the northeast (New York/Maryland).
