JALA's horrifyingly blatant GA Gerrymander

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

With Brian Kemp's dubious victory over Stacey Abrams, it seems very likely that the Georgia GOP will maintain full control over redistricting. Given their aversion to clean maps and fair elections, they'll probably try to gerrymander the Congressional districts. Many people have proposed a fairly clean 10-4 gerrymander. This isn't a 10-4 map, however. It's an 11-3 map. Now, that might raise worries of a dummymander. This isn't a dummymander. Owing to some horrifying baconmanders, every district is very strongly partisan and has a weak trend, meaning it is virtually impossible for any district to flip. Worst comes to worst, the 8th could flip, but that seems unlikely, and even if that happens, the Democratic party gets 4 seats, which is still much worse than they would get on a fair map under those conditions. So, without further ado, the map.



Think the districts are horrifying? They are. I'm going to talk about each one, so you can get a sense of how safe and how gerrymandered they are. As an aside, I'm projecting 2030 PVI by using trends from 2008 to 2016 PVI.

Georgia's 1st Congressional district



Race: 62.4% White, 27.0% Black, 10.6% Other
Obama-Mccain: 39.9-59.6
PVI: R+13.27
Expected 2030 PVI: R+12.84
RATING: SAFE R

Broadly similar to the current district, a heavily GOP district located in the Southeast. Buddy Carter is barely within this district.

Georgia's 2nd Congressional District



Race: 61.2% White, 30.7% Black, 8.1% Other
Obama-Mccain: 40.9-58.4
PVI: R+12.06
Expected 2030 PVI: R+11.41
RATING: SAFE R
Sanford Bishop's district gets carved up to hell, while the new district takes in chunks of land from 6 different districts. He lives in either the 3rd or the 10th now, but he'd lose regardless.

Georgia's 3rd Congressional District


Race: 61.6% White, 30.4% Black, 8.0% Other
Obama-Mccain: 42.1-57.2
PVI: R+11.30
Expected 2030 PVI: R+11.53
RATING: SAFE R
Sprawling across half the state, this district barely resembles the old GA-3, but it does (technically), contain Drew Ferguson's home. It also has Austin Scott's home. One of them could pretty easily carpetbag somewhere else. Or I could redraw this map. I'll make the congressman move.

Georgia's 4th Congressional District




Race: 16.5% White, 70.5% Black, 13.0% Other
Obama-Mccain: 82.8-16.9
PVI: D+33.32
Expected 2030 PVI: D+41.33
RATING: SAFE D
A Titanium D district in South Atlanta. Hank Johnson lives here, and he will hold this district forever.

Georgia's 5th Congressional District




Race: 23.3% White, 63.4% Black, 13.3% Other
Obama-Mccain: 83.0-16.5
PVI: D+32.88
Expected 2030 PVI: D+39.41
RATING: SAFE D

This district is Titanium D and contains the home of John Lewis.

Georgia's 6th Congressional District




Race: 40.2% White, 36.5% Black, 23.3% Other
Obama-Mccain: 70.1-29.1
PVI: D+20.30
Expected 2030 PVI: D+27.17
RATING: SAFE D
A Safe D district trending safer for Lucy McBath.

Georgia's 7th Congressional District




Race: 72.6% White, 8.1% Black, 19.3% Other
Obama-Mccain: 36.2-62.9
PVI: R+15.64
Expected 2030 PVI: R+12.95
RATING: SAFE R

A fight between David Scott and Tom Graves that Graves wins by a double digit margin. This district is Safe R, although it is moderately trending D. Not enough to flip it by 2030, though.

Georgia's 8th Congressional District




Race: 63.4% White, 12.1% Black, 24.5% Other
Obama-Mccain: 33.8-65.4
PVI: R+15.60
Expected 2030 PVI: R+7.93
RATING: VERY LIKELY R

An open seat in Suburban Atlanta, it's trending D fast enough that it might barely reach competitiveness by the end of the decade. Still pretty strongly R, however. If Bordeaux manages to win in 2018 or 2020, she gets drawn in here, but she probably still loses, given how strongly R the district is now.

Georgia's 9th Congressional District




Race: 58.8% White, 14.0% Black, 27.2% Other
Obama-Mccain: 34.6-64.5
PVI: R+16.31
Expected 2030 PVI: R+11.76
RATING: SOLID R

An atrocious gerrymander? Yes. Does Rob Woodall care what his newly Safe R seat looks like? No. D trending, but enough to matter by 2030.

Georgia's 10th Congressional District





Race: 56.5% White, 35.5% Black, 8.0% Other
Obama-Mccain: 43.3-56.1
PVI: R+9.53
Expected 2030 PVI: R+8.52
RATING: VERY LIKELY R

Austin Scott probably moves to this seat, which is otherwise open. Along with the 3rd, vaguely competitive ancestrally but nowadays strongly R. The PVI isn't quite safe, but racial polarization is his friend in a seat like this.

Georgia's 11th Congressional District




Race: 61.6% White, 24.3% Black, 14.1% Other
Obama-Mccain: 40.8-58.4
PVI: R+12.10
Expected 2030 PVI: R+11.43
RATING: SOLID R

Jody Hice and Doug Collins are both in this Strongly exurban seat, but Hice can probably move to the open 14th. Safe R with any candidate.

Georgia's 12th Congressional District




Race: 64.2% White, 27.8% Black, 8.0% Other
Obama-Mccain: 42.8-56.5
PVI: R+12.06
Expected 2030 PVI: R+15.21
RATING: SOLID R


John Barrow's old district is a R+12 monstrosity stretching across most of the state, and trending R. Rick Allen has no issues here.

Georgia's 13th Congressional District




Race: 71.1% White, 17.1% Black, 11.8% Other
Obama-Mccain: 33.5-65.5
PVI: R+19.08
Expected 2030 PVI: R+17.97
RATING: SOLID R

The 13th changes a lot, becoming a Titanium R safe seat in Exurban Atlanta. Barry Loudermilk will be fine here.


Georgia's 14th Congressional District




Race: 69.1% White, 23.0% Black, 7.9% Other
Obama-Mccain: 33.4-65.9
PVI: R+18.28
Expected 2030 PVI: R+15.07
RATING: SOLID R


And finally, this. An open seat that Hice might move to, trending D slowly, Titanium R in any circumstances.

In total, there are 3 Titanium D seats, 9 Titanium R seats, and 2 merely Solid R seats. The GOP probably wins 11 seats in every election here, and there is no plausible circumstance where this map backfires on them over a neutral map (it becomes a dummymander at roughly a 25 point Dem PV margin, which is unlikely, to say the least). It probably violates the VRA, and definitely violates any sense of fairness, but it gets the GOP seats, and the Supreme Court might like that more than the VRA.

[Mr.Phips]

Lol, you're still going by numbers from the 2008 election for a 2021 redistricting?  Do you realize how much the Atlanta suburbs have grown and changed since then? 

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

Lol, you're still going by numbers from the 2008 election for a 2021 redistricting?  Do you realize how much the Atlanta suburbs have grown and changed since then? 

I'm using 2008 numbers and 2016 numbers to show how much the districts have changed and so what changes will look like in the future. If a district's PVI has shifted from R+15 to R+14 in the past 8 years, it's unlikely to become less than R+10 by 2030, for example. If it had shifted from R+18 to R+15, the trend would be more worrying.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Beautiful! Have you considered a career as a professional election rigger?

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

OK, but the next thing you have to do is make a swirlmander version. Here is one swirlmander with 11 R+ PVI districts and only 3 D+ PVI districts. It also has 4 majority minority districts. The problem is it has too many districts that might become competitive (R+6 or so, maybe they will trend D):

GA-01: R+10.5
GA-02: R+10.4
GA-03: R+13.4
GA-04: R+6.8
GA-05: R+9.3
GA-06: R+5.5
GA-07: R+6.3
GA-08: R+9.0
GA-09: R+9.6
GA-10: R+9.5
GA-11: D+0.3 (majority minority)
GA-12: R+1.0 (majority minority)
GA-13: D+8.4 (majority minority)
GA-14: D+12.4 (majority minority)





The question is, can you make an 11-3 swirlmander with all safe districts?

[Adam Griffin]

Taking into account current trends in GA, you can draw a clean 11-3 GOP gerrymander (that conforms to both VRA and metro county lines fairly well) without much fear of any of the seats falling by 2030.

Voila:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Taking into account current trends in GA, you can draw a clean 11-3 GOP gerrymander (that conforms to both VRA and metro county lines fairly well) without much fear of any of the seats falling by 2030.

Voila:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I don't see how your GA-14 (replacing the current GA-02) is conforming with the VRA.

[Adam Griffin]

I don't see how your GA-14 (replacing the current GA-02) is conforming with the VRA.

RL GA-02 is not required by the VRA (and it certainly won't be in 2021 given the population loss down there); it was drawn in 2011 to be a Democratic vote-sink to prevent potentially 2 Jim Marshalls et al to slip through in 2 South GA districts. My, how things have changed since then!

[Mr.Phips]

I don't see how your GA-14 (replacing the current GA-02) is conforming with the VRA.

RL GA-02 is not required by the VRA (and it certainly won't be in 2021 given the population loss down there); it was drawn in 2011 to be a Democratic vote-sink to prevent potentially 2 Jim Marshalls et al to slip through in 2 South GA districts. My, how things have changed since then!

It is required under VRA, its 52% black. 

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

I don't see how your GA-14 (replacing the current GA-02) is conforming with the VRA.

RL GA-02 is not required by the VRA (and it certainly won't be in 2021 given the population loss down there); it was drawn in 2011 to be a Democratic vote-sink to prevent potentially 2 Jim Marshalls et al to slip through in 2 South GA districts. My, how things have changed since then!

GA-02 is a majority African American district.

Despite population loss in South GA, it remains very easy to draw a compact majority African American district in the area. I don't see how it could be legal to dismantle it (I do see how the Supreme Court might disregard the law and rule against it anyway for purely partisan reasons, but that is another matter). This GA-02 is drawn using 2020 population estimates (including race data). It actually understates the true Black population % a bit because I only counted "black alone," and put mixed race under "other" and "Hispanic Black" under Hispanic:



This district has a population of 775k and is 40.1% White, 51.3% Black, 5.2% Hispanic. 1.3% Asian. 0.1% Native American, and 2.0% other, as compared to the current GA-02 which according to Wikipedia is population 670k, 42.3% White, and 51.9% Black. But again, keep in mind that my data is not counting multi-racial and Hispanics as Black, so mine is probably at least 51.9% Black.

You can use the population estimates yourself in DRA, see here -

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=294399.0

[Oryxslayer]

I don't see how your GA-14 (replacing the current GA-02) is conforming with the VRA.

RL GA-02 is not required by the VRA (and it certainly won't be in 2021 given the population loss down there); it was drawn in 2011 to be a Democratic vote-sink to prevent potentially 2 Jim Marshalls et al to slip through in 2 South GA districts. My, how things have changed since then!

GA-02 is a majority African American district.

Despite population loss in South GA, it remains very easy to draw a compact majority African American district in the area. I don't see how it could be legal to dismantle it (I do see how the Supreme Court might disregard the law and rule against it anyway for purely partisan reasons, but that is another matter). This GA-02 is drawn using 2020 population estimates (including race data). It actually understates the true Black population % a bit because I only counted "black alone," and put mixed race under "other" and "Hispanic Black" under Hispanic:



This district has a population of 775k and is 40.1% White, 51.3% Black, 5.2% Hispanic. 1.3% Asian. 0.1% Native American, and 2.0% other, as compared to the current GA-02 which according to Wikipedia is population 670k, 42.3% White, and 51.9% Black. But again, keep in mind that my data is not counting multi-racial and Hispanics as Black, so mine is probably at least 51.9% Black.

You can use the population estimates yourself in DRA, see here -

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=294399.0

Yeah and if Pubs really wanted to get cruel, they could extend the seat beyond Macon to the other side of the Black belt for more pop.

[Adam Griffin]

GA-02 is a majority African American district.

It is required under VRA, its 52% black.  

It was actually 49.5% VAP as drawn in 2011, and I promise you, it is not required under VRA. There was a lot of talk about it being such during reapportionment, but the final outcome was purposefully designed to skid the implicit requirements wrt Gingles. The GOP billed it as being a majority-black district in the run-up to the final version of the map (so they could talk about expanding black districts), but they ultimately drew it in such a way as to maximize its vote-sink potential without permanently guaranteeing its protection.

Additionally - and perhaps in conflict with what my GOP friends under the Gold Dome at the time told me - if a Gingles-complaint majority-black CD were possible here, then the Justice Department would have likely forced the legislature to redo this district during preclearance and make it majority-black VAP: they did not.

Even if it were majority-black CVAP (and despite the VAP number, it might actually be depending on the Latino CVAP percentage), that alone is not a guarantee for protection under VRA (nor is a plurality-black CVAP district automatically disqualified from VRA protections simply because it is not a majority-black district). It is no more required than a Savannah-Augusta-Macon 49% black VAP district that is entirely possible (though not via DRA necessarily).

There's a reason virtually every heavily-black SW GA county has swung immensely to the GOP since the maps were drawn: they're hemorrhaging black population. Among the three most populated/urban centers, 2 of them (Dougherty & Bibb) have lost population since 2010, and Muscogee has grown by a mere 2%. If this district isn't protected under the Voting Rights Act now (and it's not), then it won't be come 2020.

[Mr.Phips]

GA-02 is a majority African American district.

It is required under VRA, its 52% black.  

It was actually 49.5% VAP as drawn in 2011, and I promise you, it is not required under VRA. There was a lot of talk about it being such during reapportionment, but the final outcome was purposefully designed to skid the implicit requirements wrt Gingles. The GOP billed it as being a majority-black district in the run-up to the final version of the map (so they could talk about expanding black districts), but they ultimately drew it in such a way as to maximize its vote-sink potential without permanently guaranteeing its protection.

Additionally - and perhaps in conflict with what my GOP friends under the Gold Dome at the time told me - if a Gingles-complaint majority-black CD were possible here, then the Justice Department would have likely forced the legislature to redo this district during preclearance and make it majority-black VAP: they did not.

Even if it were majority-black CVAP (and despite the VAP number, it might actually be depending on the Latino CVAP percentage), that alone is not a guarantee for protection under VRA (nor is a plurality-black CVAP district automatically disqualified from VRA protections simply because it is not a majority-black district). It is no more required than a Savannah-Augusta-Macon 49% black VAP district that is entirely possible (though not via DRA necessarily).

There's a reason virtually every heavily-black SW GA county has swung immensely to the GOP since the maps were drawn: they're hemorrhaging black population. Among the three most populated/urban centers, 2 of them (Dougherty & Bibb) have lost population since 2010, and Muscogee has grown by a mere 2%. If this district isn't protected under the Voting Rights Act now (and it's not), then it won't be come 2020.

It's probably more than 49.5% black now.

[Adam Griffin]

It's probably more than 49.5% black now.

It might be, given the 3 urban clusters have become slightly blacker while losing population; however, most everywhere else in the district is becoming whiter or remaining the same while losing tons of population.

This'll require the district to cover more geographic territory as it is and will likely further weaken the "compact racial, ethnic, or language minority community" threshold for VRA status.


I also believe one of our expert redistricting fellows here (muon or jimrtex) mentioned some time ago that they too believed the district to not be VRA-required.

[Mr.Phips]

It's probably more than 49.5% black now.

It might be, given the 3 urban clusters have become slightly blacker while losing population; however, most everywhere else in the district is becoming whiter or remaining the same while losing tons of population.

This'll require the district to cover more geographic territory as it is and will likely further weaken the "compact racial, ethnic, or language minority community" threshold for VRA status.


I also believe one of our expert redistricting fellows here (muon or jimrtex) mentioned some time ago that they too believed the district to not be VRA-required.

I'd like to see what happens if the legislature and governor try to take away the representation for African American voters in Southwest Georgia.  The optics alone of it are something to consider.

[Adam Griffin]

It's probably more than 49.5% black now.

It might be, given the 3 urban clusters have become slightly blacker while losing population; however, most everywhere else in the district is becoming whiter or remaining the same while losing tons of population.

This'll require the district to cover more geographic territory as it is and will likely further weaken the "compact racial, ethnic, or language minority community" threshold for VRA status.


I also believe one of our expert redistricting fellows here (muon or jimrtex) mentioned some time ago that they too believed the district to not be VRA-required.

I'd like to see what happens if the legislature and governor try to take away the representation for African American voters in Southwest Georgia.  The optics alone of it are something to consider.

I'd say the biggest concern optics-wise among GAGOP is to maintain an image that the GOP is the "White People's Party" and the Dems are the "Black People's Party". It's a narrative they have helped cultivate and encourage over the past 20 years - often under the disingenuous guise of "expanding black representation".

If there was a chance hacking GA-02 to pieces could elect multiple other Democrats to Congress (and certainly if they were white Democrats), they'd keep his district intact. If the end result is no chance of that, they'll likely proceed with it assuming the law permits (especially if they decide to go the safe route and give Dems an additional CD in Metro ATL; they might even try to draw an additional black-majority or plurality CD in the metro to offset such a hacking, as reducing any rural Democratic representation is an auxiliary goal of theirs as well).

[lfromnj]

It's probably more than 49.5% black now.

It might be, given the 3 urban clusters have become slightly blacker while losing population; however, most everywhere else in the district is becoming whiter or remaining the same while losing tons of population.

This'll require the district to cover more geographic territory as it is and will likely further weaken the "compact racial, ethnic, or language minority community" threshold for VRA status.


I also believe one of our expert redistricting fellows here (muon or jimrtex) mentioned some time ago that they too believed the district to not be VRA-required.

I'd like to see what happens if the legislature and governor try to take away the representation for African American voters in Southwest Georgia.  The optics alone of it are something to consider.

Yeah coz voters care so much about gerrymandering that it effects their votes?
I mean they might say muh gerrymandering is bad but then anyone can just point to MDs 3rd or even Il 4th(ik its not a partisan gerrymander)

[Mr.Phips]

It's probably more than 49.5% black now.

It might be, given the 3 urban clusters have become slightly blacker while losing population; however, most everywhere else in the district is becoming whiter or remaining the same while losing tons of population.

This'll require the district to cover more geographic territory as it is and will likely further weaken the "compact racial, ethnic, or language minority community" threshold for VRA status.


I also believe one of our expert redistricting fellows here (muon or jimrtex) mentioned some time ago that they too believed the district to not be VRA-required.

I'd like to see what happens if the legislature and governor try to take away the representation for African American voters in Southwest Georgia.  The optics alone of it are something to consider.

Yeah coz voters care so much about gerrymandering that it effects their votes?
I mean they might say muh gerrymandering is bad but then anyone can just point to MDs 3rd or even Il 4th(ik its not a partisan gerrymander)

I think the African American voters (and state legislators) who have had one of their own representing them for the last 30 years would certainly care.  In that case, I would suggest that they refuse to show up for the vote on the map to deny Republicans a quarum until they agree to restore the district.

[lfromnj]

It's probably more than 49.5% black now.

It might be, given the 3 urban clusters have become slightly blacker while losing population; however, most everywhere else in the district is becoming whiter or remaining the same while losing tons of population.

This'll require the district to cover more geographic territory as it is and will likely further weaken the "compact racial, ethnic, or language minority community" threshold for VRA status.


I also believe one of our expert redistricting fellows here (muon or jimrtex) mentioned some time ago that they too believed the district to not be VRA-required.

I'd like to see what happens if the legislature and governor try to take away the representation for African American voters in Southwest Georgia.  The optics alone of it are something to consider.

Yeah coz voters care so much about gerrymandering that it effects their votes?
I mean they might say muh gerrymandering is bad but then anyone can just point to MDs 3rd or even Il 4th(ik its not a partisan gerrymander)

I think the African American voters (and state legislators) who have had one of their own representing them for the last 30 years would certainly care.  In that case, I would suggest that they refuse to show up for the vote on the map to deny Republicans a quarum until they agree to restore the district.

Whats quorom in GA?

[Mr.Phips]

It's probably more than 49.5% black now.

It might be, given the 3 urban clusters have become slightly blacker while losing population; however, most everywhere else in the district is becoming whiter or remaining the same while losing tons of population.

This'll require the district to cover more geographic territory as it is and will likely further weaken the "compact racial, ethnic, or language minority community" threshold for VRA status.


I also believe one of our expert redistricting fellows here (muon or jimrtex) mentioned some time ago that they too believed the district to not be VRA-required.

I'd like to see what happens if the legislature and governor try to take away the representation for African American voters in Southwest Georgia.  The optics alone of it are something to consider.

Yeah coz voters care so much about gerrymandering that it effects their votes?
I mean they might say muh gerrymandering is bad but then anyone can just point to MDs 3rd or even Il 4th(ik its not a partisan gerrymander)

I think the African American voters (and state legislators) who have had one of their own representing them for the last 30 years would certainly care.  In that case, I would suggest that they refuse to show up for the vote on the map to deny Republicans a quarum until they agree to restore the district.

Whats quorom in GA?

It may just be a simple majority, so that may not work.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

GA-02 is a majority African American district.

It is required under VRA, its 52% black.  

It was actually 49.5% VAP as drawn in 2011, and I promise you, it is not required under VRA. There was a lot of talk about it being such during reapportionment, but the final outcome was purposefully designed to skid the implicit requirements wrt Gingles. The GOP billed it as being a majority-black district in the run-up to the final version of the map (so they could talk about expanding black districts), but they ultimately drew it in such a way as to maximize its vote-sink potential without permanently guaranteeing its protection.

Additionally - and perhaps in conflict with what my GOP friends under the Gold Dome at the time told me - if a Gingles-complaint majority-black CD were possible here, then the Justice Department would have likely forced the legislature to redo this district during preclearance and make it majority-black VAP: they did not.

Even if it were majority-black CVAP (and despite the VAP number, it might actually be depending on the Latino CVAP percentage), that alone is not a guarantee for protection under VRA (nor is a plurality-black CVAP district automatically disqualified from VRA protections simply because it is not a majority-black district). It is no more required than a Savannah-Augusta-Macon 49% black VAP district that is entirely possible (though not via DRA necessarily).

There's a reason virtually every heavily-black SW GA county has swung immensely to the GOP since the maps were drawn: they're hemorrhaging black population. Among the three most populated/urban centers, 2 of them (Dougherty & Bibb) have lost population since 2010, and Muscogee has grown by a mere 2%. If this district isn't protected under the Voting Rights Act now (and it's not), then it won't be come 2020.

At least my understand is that whether or not it was 50% Black VAP or not in 2010 is not directly relevant as to whether a minority opportunity district is required now under Bartlett Vs. Strickland (in fact, I am quite sure that it was possible then). Just because it was possible then, presuming it was possible, did not require that the actual minority opportunity district drawn be itself over 50% Black VAP - just that it give minority voters the opportunity to elect the candidate of their choice (this can be easily achieved with a strong plurality). Indeed, making the Black VAP too high is racial packing.

Regardless of what districts existed before, the relevant question under Bartlett/Gingles is whether a compact majority black district can be drawn. It can - the district I posted only split even a single county. The VRA has no inherent problem with splitting counties - if you just split even 1 or 2 more counties, it is very easy to make this district several % points more black to the point where there would certainly be a Black VAP majority (by e.g. taking out whites who live near Valdosta or Albany). Thus, a minority opportunity district is required in this area under the criteria laid out in Bartlett (but that minority opportunity district need not itself have an outright Black VAP majority unless that is actually necessary for minority voters to be able to elect the candidate of their choice).

In any case, whether you or anyone agrees or disagrees, if White GA Republicans do seek to eliminate GA-02, it will be very clear what they are doing - taking away the ability of Black voters to elect the candidate of their choice, which they have clearly been succeeding at doing in GA-02 for quite some time now, because White GA Republicans do not want that candidate to get elected, and instead want to elect someone who is the choice of White voters in South GA. If they do this, it will most definitely be challenged in court. I would agree the outcome of such lawsuits is unclear - but not because there is any real merit to the argument that it is permissible to strip Blacks in South GA of their voting rights, but rather because John Roberts (and I presume Kavanaugh) is a hack who doesn't care about minority voting rights and is willing to change the law to suppress black voters for partisan purposes.



As an aside from what is legally required under previous precedent, personally I would say that it is ludicrous/outdated to only look at black vs white population, and ignore all other non-whites. In most other states, lots of different groups of non-whites live in the same area. If one takes literally the argument that - regardless of how many other minorities live in the area - it must be possible to draw a district with a majority of only a single minority group in order for a minority opportunity district to be required, that would imply that districts like TX-30 and TX-18 could be dismantled solely because there are lots of Hispanics (and Asians) there mixed in with the blacks as well as whites. This would be a clear perversion of the purpose and intent of the VRA.

But insofar as there is an exception to that being outdated, it is South Georgia (most people there ARE either Black or White). But even in South GA, a substantial and increasing % of the population in the GA-02 example I showed is both non-white and non-black. Keeping the threshold at 50% black regardless of the fact that the Hispanic/other population %s are going up effectively raises the requirement of how large of a majority of blacks relative to whites is needed, which makes little sense.

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

Taking into account current trends in GA, you can draw a clean 11-3 GOP gerrymander (that conforms to both VRA and metro county lines fairly well) without much fear of any of the seats falling by 2030.

Voila:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Using my method for forecasting 2030 PVI, I got those numbers for your map.

1: D+35.27
2: R+2.73
3: D+24.27
4: D+36.27
5: R+26.27
6: R+9.73
7: R+10.73
8: R+24.27
9: R+11.73
10: R+6.73
11: R+6.73
12: R+10.27
13: R+10.27
14: R+5.73

in PVI order
4: D+36.27
1: D+35.27
3: D+24.27
2: R+2.73
14: R+5.73
10: R+6.73
11: R+6.73
6: R+9.73
12: R+10.27
13: R+10.27
7: R+10.73
9: R+11.73
8: R+24.27
5: R+26.27

compared to mine
4: D+41.33
5: D+39.41
6: D+27.17
8: R+7.93
10: R+8.52
2: R+11.41
11: R+11.43
3: R+11.53
9: R+11.76
1: R+12.84
7: R+12.95
14: R+15.07
12: R+15.21
13: R+17.97

Your map, by 2030, has a merely R+3 seat, and 3 other seats that are significantly more vulnerable than the least vulnerable seat on my map. 2 seats on my map are remotely competitive, versus 5 on your map. The PVIs are good today, but Districts 2 and 6 are trending Democratic fast enough to be worrying, and 10, 11, and 14 aren’t cracked enough to be rock solid. It’s significantly less ugly and probably gets the job done up until 2030, but keeping it clean means that you’re accepting some districts are trending D, and so that map might fall apart by 2030.

[Cokeland Saxton]

With Brian Kemp's dubious victory over Stacey Abrams, it seems very likely that the Georgia GOP will maintain full control over redistricting. Given their aversion to clean maps and fair elections, they'll probably try to gerrymander the Congressional districts. Many people have proposed a fairly clean 10-4 gerrymander. This isn't a 10-4 map, however. It's an 11-3 map. Now, that might raise worries of a dummymander. This isn't a dummymander. Owing to some horrifying baconmanders, every district is very strongly partisan and has a weak trend, meaning it is virtually impossible for any district to flip. Worst comes to worst, the 8th could flip, but that seems unlikely, and even if that happens, the Democratic party gets 4 seats, which is still much worse than they would get on a fair map under those conditions. So, without further ado, the map.



Think the districts are horrifying? They are. I'm going to talk about each one, so you can get a sense of how safe and how gerrymandered they are. As an aside, I'm projecting 2030 PVI by using trends from 2008 to 2016 PVI.

Georgia's 1st Congressional district



Race: 62.4% White, 27.0% Black, 10.6% Other
Obama-Mccain: 39.9-59.6
PVI: R+13.27
Expected 2030 PVI: R+12.84
RATING: SAFE R

Broadly similar to the current district, a heavily GOP district located in the Southeast. Buddy Carter is barely within this district.

Georgia's 2nd Congressional District



Race: 61.2% White, 30.7% Black, 8.1% Other
Obama-Mccain: 40.9-58.4
PVI: R+12.06
Expected 2030 PVI: R+11.41
RATING: SAFE R
Sanford Bishop's district gets carved up to hell, while the new district takes in chunks of land from 6 different districts. He lives in either the 3rd or the 10th now, but he'd lose regardless.

Georgia's 3rd Congressional District


Race: 61.6% White, 30.4% Black, 8.0% Other
Obama-Mccain: 42.1-57.2
PVI: R+11.30
Expected 2030 PVI: R+11.53
RATING: SAFE R
Sprawling across half the state, this district barely resembles the old GA-3, but it does (technically), contain Drew Ferguson's home. It also has Austin Scott's home. One of them could pretty easily carpetbag somewhere else. Or I could redraw this map. I'll make the congressman move.

Georgia's 4th Congressional District




Race: 16.5% White, 70.5% Black, 13.0% Other
Obama-Mccain: 82.8-16.9
PVI: D+33.32
Expected 2030 PVI: D+41.33
RATING: SAFE D
A Titanium D district in South Atlanta. Hank Johnson lives here, and he will hold this district forever.

Georgia's 5th Congressional District




Race: 23.3% White, 63.4% Black, 13.3% Other
Obama-Mccain: 83.0-16.5
PVI: D+32.88
Expected 2030 PVI: D+39.41
RATING: SAFE D

This district is Titanium D and contains the home of John Lewis.

Georgia's 6th Congressional District




Race: 40.2% White, 36.5% Black, 23.3% Other
Obama-Mccain: 70.1-29.1
PVI: D+20.30
Expected 2030 PVI: D+27.17
RATING: SAFE D
A Safe D district trending safer for Lucy McBath.

Georgia's 7th Congressional District




Race: 72.6% White, 8.1% Black, 19.3% Other
Obama-Mccain: 36.2-62.9
PVI: R+15.64
Expected 2030 PVI: R+12.95
RATING: SAFE R

A fight between David Scott and Tom Graves that Graves wins by a double digit margin. This district is Safe R, although it is moderately trending D. Not enough to flip it by 2030, though.

Georgia's 8th Congressional District




Race: 63.4% White, 12.1% Black, 24.5% Other
Obama-Mccain: 33.8-65.4
PVI: R+15.60
Expected 2030 PVI: R+7.93
RATING: VERY LIKELY R

An open seat in Suburban Atlanta, it's trending D fast enough that it might barely reach competitiveness by the end of the decade. Still pretty strongly R, however. If Bordeaux manages to win in 2018 or 2020, she gets drawn in here, but she probably still loses, given how strongly R the district is now.

Georgia's 9th Congressional District




Race: 58.8% White, 14.0% Black, 27.2% Other
Obama-Mccain: 34.6-64.5
PVI: R+16.31
Expected 2030 PVI: R+11.76
RATING: SOLID R

An atrocious gerrymander? Yes. Does Rob Woodall care what his newly Safe R seat looks like? No. D trending, but enough to matter by 2030.

Georgia's 10th Congressional District





Race: 56.5% White, 35.5% Black, 8.0% Other
Obama-Mccain: 43.3-56.1
PVI: R+9.53
Expected 2030 PVI: R+8.52
RATING: VERY LIKELY R

Austin Scott probably moves to this seat, which is otherwise open. Along with the 3rd, vaguely competitive ancestrally but nowadays strongly R. The PVI isn't quite safe, but racial polarization is his friend in a seat like this.

Georgia's 11th Congressional District




Race: 61.6% White, 24.3% Black, 14.1% Other
Obama-Mccain: 40.8-58.4
PVI: R+12.10
Expected 2030 PVI: R+11.43
RATING: SOLID R

Jody Hice and Doug Collins are both in this Strongly exurban seat, but Hice can probably move to the open 14th. Safe R with any candidate.

Georgia's 12th Congressional District




Race: 64.2% White, 27.8% Black, 8.0% Other
Obama-Mccain: 42.8-56.5
PVI: R+12.06
Expected 2030 PVI: R+15.21
RATING: SOLID R


John Barrow's old district is a R+12 monstrosity stretching across most of the state, and trending R. Rick Allen has no issues here.

Georgia's 13th Congressional District




Race: 71.1% White, 17.1% Black, 11.8% Other
Obama-Mccain: 33.5-65.5
PVI: R+19.08
Expected 2030 PVI: R+17.97
RATING: SOLID R

The 13th changes a lot, becoming a Titanium R safe seat in Exurban Atlanta. Barry Loudermilk will be fine here.


Georgia's 14th Congressional District




Race: 69.1% White, 23.0% Black, 7.9% Other
Obama-Mccain: 33.4-65.9
PVI: R+18.28
Expected 2030 PVI: R+15.07
RATING: SOLID R


And finally, this. An open seat that Hice might move to, trending D slowly, Titanium R in any circumstances.

In total, there are 3 Titanium D seats, 9 Titanium R seats, and 2 merely Solid R seats. The GOP probably wins 11 seats in every election here, and there is no plausible circumstance where this map backfires on them over a neutral map (it becomes a dummymander at roughly a 25 point Dem PV margin, which is unlikely, to say the least). It probably violates the VRA, and definitely violates any sense of fairness, but it gets the GOP seats, and the Supreme Court might like that more than the VRA.

My poor eyes hurt looking at that map. That is most definitely a violation of the VRA rules for both compactness and fairness. A gold medal goes to the proposed 1st for actually being remotely compact. The other 13 all look really ugly.

[Skill and Chance]

With Brian Kemp's dubious victory over Stacey Abrams, it seems very likely that the Georgia GOP will maintain full control over redistricting. Given their aversion to clean maps and fair elections, they'll probably try to gerrymander the Congressional districts. Many people have proposed a fairly clean 10-4 gerrymander. This isn't a 10-4 map, however. It's an 11-3 map. Now, that might raise worries of a dummymander. This isn't a dummymander. Owing to some horrifying baconmanders, every district is very strongly partisan and has a weak trend, meaning it is virtually impossible for any district to flip. Worst comes to worst, the 8th could flip, but that seems unlikely, and even if that happens, the Democratic party gets 4 seats, which is still much worse than they would get on a fair map under those conditions. So, without further ado, the map.



Think the districts are horrifying? They are. I'm going to talk about each one, so you can get a sense of how safe and how gerrymandered they are. As an aside, I'm projecting 2030 PVI by using trends from 2008 to 2016 PVI.

Georgia's 1st Congressional district



Race: 62.4% White, 27.0% Black, 10.6% Other
Obama-Mccain: 39.9-59.6
PVI: R+13.27
Expected 2030 PVI: R+12.84
RATING: SAFE R

Broadly similar to the current district, a heavily GOP district located in the Southeast. Buddy Carter is barely within this district.

Georgia's 2nd Congressional District



Race: 61.2% White, 30.7% Black, 8.1% Other
Obama-Mccain: 40.9-58.4
PVI: R+12.06
Expected 2030 PVI: R+11.41
RATING: SAFE R
Sanford Bishop's district gets carved up to hell, while the new district takes in chunks of land from 6 different districts. He lives in either the 3rd or the 10th now, but he'd lose regardless.

Georgia's 3rd Congressional District


Race: 61.6% White, 30.4% Black, 8.0% Other
Obama-Mccain: 42.1-57.2
PVI: R+11.30
Expected 2030 PVI: R+11.53
RATING: SAFE R
Sprawling across half the state, this district barely resembles the old GA-3, but it does (technically), contain Drew Ferguson's home. It also has Austin Scott's home. One of them could pretty easily carpetbag somewhere else. Or I could redraw this map. I'll make the congressman move.

Georgia's 4th Congressional District




Race: 16.5% White, 70.5% Black, 13.0% Other
Obama-Mccain: 82.8-16.9
PVI: D+33.32
Expected 2030 PVI: D+41.33
RATING: SAFE D
A Titanium D district in South Atlanta. Hank Johnson lives here, and he will hold this district forever.

Georgia's 5th Congressional District




Race: 23.3% White, 63.4% Black, 13.3% Other
Obama-Mccain: 83.0-16.5
PVI: D+32.88
Expected 2030 PVI: D+39.41
RATING: SAFE D

This district is Titanium D and contains the home of John Lewis.

Georgia's 6th Congressional District




Race: 40.2% White, 36.5% Black, 23.3% Other
Obama-Mccain: 70.1-29.1
PVI: D+20.30
Expected 2030 PVI: D+27.17
RATING: SAFE D
A Safe D district trending safer for Lucy McBath.

Georgia's 7th Congressional District




Race: 72.6% White, 8.1% Black, 19.3% Other
Obama-Mccain: 36.2-62.9
PVI: R+15.64
Expected 2030 PVI: R+12.95
RATING: SAFE R

A fight between David Scott and Tom Graves that Graves wins by a double digit margin. This district is Safe R, although it is moderately trending D. Not enough to flip it by 2030, though.

Georgia's 8th Congressional District




Race: 63.4% White, 12.1% Black, 24.5% Other
Obama-Mccain: 33.8-65.4
PVI: R+15.60
Expected 2030 PVI: R+7.93
RATING: VERY LIKELY R

An open seat in Suburban Atlanta, it's trending D fast enough that it might barely reach competitiveness by the end of the decade. Still pretty strongly R, however. If Bordeaux manages to win in 2018 or 2020, she gets drawn in here, but she probably still loses, given how strongly R the district is now.

Georgia's 9th Congressional District




Race: 58.8% White, 14.0% Black, 27.2% Other
Obama-Mccain: 34.6-64.5
PVI: R+16.31
Expected 2030 PVI: R+11.76
RATING: SOLID R

An atrocious gerrymander? Yes. Does Rob Woodall care what his newly Safe R seat looks like? No. D trending, but enough to matter by 2030.

Georgia's 10th Congressional District





Race: 56.5% White, 35.5% Black, 8.0% Other
Obama-Mccain: 43.3-56.1
PVI: R+9.53
Expected 2030 PVI: R+8.52
RATING: VERY LIKELY R

Austin Scott probably moves to this seat, which is otherwise open. Along with the 3rd, vaguely competitive ancestrally but nowadays strongly R. The PVI isn't quite safe, but racial polarization is his friend in a seat like this.

Georgia's 11th Congressional District




Race: 61.6% White, 24.3% Black, 14.1% Other
Obama-Mccain: 40.8-58.4
PVI: R+12.10
Expected 2030 PVI: R+11.43
RATING: SOLID R

Jody Hice and Doug Collins are both in this Strongly exurban seat, but Hice can probably move to the open 14th. Safe R with any candidate.

Georgia's 12th Congressional District




Race: 64.2% White, 27.8% Black, 8.0% Other
Obama-Mccain: 42.8-56.5
PVI: R+12.06
Expected 2030 PVI: R+15.21
RATING: SOLID R


John Barrow's old district is a R+12 monstrosity stretching across most of the state, and trending R. Rick Allen has no issues here.

Georgia's 13th Congressional District




Race: 71.1% White, 17.1% Black, 11.8% Other
Obama-Mccain: 33.5-65.5
PVI: R+19.08
Expected 2030 PVI: R+17.97
RATING: SOLID R

The 13th changes a lot, becoming a Titanium R safe seat in Exurban Atlanta. Barry Loudermilk will be fine here.


Georgia's 14th Congressional District




Race: 69.1% White, 23.0% Black, 7.9% Other
Obama-Mccain: 33.4-65.9
PVI: R+18.28
Expected 2030 PVI: R+15.07
RATING: SOLID R


And finally, this. An open seat that Hice might move to, trending D slowly, Titanium R in any circumstances.

In total, there are 3 Titanium D seats, 9 Titanium R seats, and 2 merely Solid R seats. The GOP probably wins 11 seats in every election here, and there is no plausible circumstance where this map backfires on them over a neutral map (it becomes a dummymander at roughly a 25 point Dem PV margin, which is unlikely, to say the least). It probably violates the VRA, and definitely violates any sense of fairness, but it gets the GOP seats, and the Supreme Court might like that more than the VRA.

My poor eyes hurt looking at that map. That is most definitely a violation of the VRA rules for both compactness and fairness. A gold medal goes to the proposed 1st for actually being remotely compact. The other 13 all look really ugly.

The new SCOTUS could very well rule that VRA doesn't apply to redistricting at all.