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| | |-+  Your final prediction map vs Actual results
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Author Topic: Your final prediction map vs Actual results  (Read 2090 times)
DabbingSanta
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« on: November 17, 2018, 10:37:04 am »

I thought it would be interesting to see everyone's final prediction for the 2016 election and compare it to the results. Who was too bullish on Clinton's odds? Who anticipated the blue wall breaking?

Final prediction:


Democrat 229
Republican 215
Tossups 94

No tossups:


Democrat 278 ✓
Republican 260

Results:


Republican 306 ✓
Democrat 232
(not counting final EC vote with faithless electors)
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Chinggis
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« Reply #1 on: November 17, 2018, 02:45:44 pm »



Clinton 273-265. I called four states and one electoral vote (ME-2) wrong.
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AudmanOut
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« Reply #2 on: November 17, 2018, 06:19:21 pm »

I remember thinking Hillary would texas (I was really REALLY confident )
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agate
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« Reply #3 on: November 17, 2018, 07:51:34 pm »

I thought it would be a repeat of the 2012 map.
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Grassr00ts
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« Reply #4 on: November 18, 2018, 02:03:53 pm »

I believed it would be 2012 +Ohio +Iowa +Nevada +New Hampshire.

I don't understand why everyone believed Utah was so flimsy, when even with McMullin on the ticket, it really wasn't at all.
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Comrade Funk
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« Reply #5 on: November 18, 2018, 03:16:46 pm »

Img


Obviously off the mark.
« Last Edit: November 18, 2018, 03:23:54 pm by Comrade Funk »Logged
Ohio more D than Texas
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« Reply #6 on: November 18, 2018, 05:02:39 pm »

I correctly called Trump's win, but I didn't believe he had a chance of carrying Michigan. I thought Detroit would be enough to stop him from winning it alone.
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Ἅιδης
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« Reply #7 on: November 18, 2018, 06:00:18 pm »

I wasn't around here at that time, but my prediction would have been pretty standard (barring Utah).

« Last Edit: December 04, 2018, 09:21:26 pm by Ἅιδης »Logged
DabbingSanta
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« Reply #8 on: November 18, 2018, 09:45:14 pm »

I don't understand why everyone believed Utah was so flimsy, when even with McMullin on the ticket, it really wasn't at all.

There was a poll showing McMullin ahead in mid October, and I think many thought the Mormon vote would be stronger against Trump.
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morgankingsley
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« Reply #9 on: November 19, 2018, 06:28:35 pm »

This map is weird, but in my defense I wasn't really paying attention to polls and more of the word of mouth and what I was hearing people saying they were going to vote for in the election.



I was way off with several states, but I got the electoral vote on the dot and I correctly predicted that Hillary would win the popular vote the night before (although I thought otherwise seeing trump winning during election night).
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All States will be D
lfromnj
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« Reply #10 on: November 19, 2018, 07:04:33 pm »

I thought it would be interesting to see everyone's final prediction for the 2016 election and compare it to the results. Who was too bullish on Clinton's odds? Who anticipated the blue wall breaking?

Final prediction:


Democrat 229
Republican 215
Tossups 94

No tossups:


Democrat 278 ✓
Republican 260

Results:


Republican 306 ✓
Democrat 232
(not counting final EC vote with faithless electors)

why the  was Maine 1st lean D?
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here2view
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« Reply #11 on: November 19, 2018, 08:47:32 pm »



Hillary Clinton: 302
Donald Trump: 236
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olowakandi
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« Reply #12 on: November 19, 2018, 10:53:12 pm »

2014, 2016 and 2018, were off due to the erroneous polling, most users had a very biased Clinton map, because it was Trump, not Kasich
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« Reply #13 on: November 20, 2018, 02:11:30 pm »

2016 President with tossups:



2016 President no tossups:



2016 Senate with tossups:



2016 Senate no tossups:



Never predicted the 2016 Governor races, and you can find everything since then on my page.
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Morningside Heights Millionaire
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« Reply #14 on: November 20, 2018, 03:48:02 pm »

my prediction vs actual results

Img
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ON Conservative
Liam
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« Reply #15 on: November 20, 2018, 04:04:06 pm »

2014, 2016 and 2018, were off due to the erroneous polling, most users had a very biased Clinton map, because it was Trump, not Kasich
No. Most polls for 2018 were accurate, Republicans were expected to pick up 1-2 seats in the senate and democrats were expected to pick up 30-40 seats in the house.
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AudmanOut
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« Reply #16 on: November 20, 2018, 04:51:43 pm »

my prediction vs actual results

Img



You seriously thought trump would win every state?LOL
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Morningside Heights Millionaire
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« Reply #17 on: November 20, 2018, 07:07:37 pm »

my prediction vs actual results

Img



You seriously thought trump would win every state?LOL

it happened in my head so I wasn't far off
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Koorca Ton
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« Reply #18 on: November 20, 2018, 07:21:26 pm »

my prediction vs actual results

Img



You seriously thought trump would win every state?LOL

it happened in my head so I wasn't far off
You were very far off, actually. You incorrectly predicted 20 states and DC.
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katman46
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« Reply #19 on: November 20, 2018, 11:44:52 pm »

my prediction vs actual results

Img



You seriously thought trump would win every state?LOL

it happened in my head so I wasn't far off
You were very far off, actually. You incorrectly predicted 20 states and DC.

20 states off is better than the "clinton wins Mississippi" predictions atlas had
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morgankingsley
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« Reply #20 on: November 21, 2018, 12:42:23 am »

20 states off is better than the "clinton wins Mississippi" predictions atlas had

I want to see these maps lol
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Liam
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« Reply #21 on: November 21, 2018, 07:21:10 am »

20 states off is better than the "clinton wins Mississippi" predictions atlas had

I want to see these maps lol
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Comrade Funk
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« Reply #22 on: November 21, 2018, 12:08:10 pm »

20 states off is better than the "clinton wins Mississippi" predictions atlas had

I want to see these maps lol
https://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/PRESIDENT/2016/pred.php?sort=1
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Let Dogs Survive
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« Reply #23 on: December 03, 2018, 05:00:24 am »

Presidential Race

With Toss-Ups



Without Toss-ups


Trump/Pence: 280 EV, 47.1% pv
H. Clinton/Kaine: 258 EV, 46.4% pv
3rds: 5% pv

Tipping Point: Nevada


Senate

With Toss-ups



No Toss-Ups




Closest D: Wisconsin
Closest R: Nevada



Closest D: New Hampshire
Closest R: Pennsylvania



Honestly, even now, I still don't see how Feingold lost and how Tumor didn't completely obliterate McGutless.
« Last Edit: December 03, 2018, 05:51:58 am by Let Dogs Survive »Logged
President Phil Scott
marco.rem451
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« Reply #24 on: December 04, 2018, 09:19:45 pm »

Img


Obviously off the mark.

You had NH going R???
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