Florida felon enfranchisement and 2020 implications

[jman123]

How will enfranchising felons affect the Florida 2020 trump vs democrat election?

[completely dead account]

Felons lean Democrat, so that can tip the scales to lean D.

[ON Progressive]

I'm very skeptical it'll make much of an impact.

Charlie Crist re-enfranchised 150,000 ex-felons during his time as Governor of Florida, and it didn't make a dent in the partisanship of Florida because the vast majority of them never registered, and less than 20% of them even voted.

[completely dead account]

I'm very skeptical it'll make much of an impact.

Charlie Crist re-enfranchised 150,000 ex-felons during his time as Governor of Florida, and it didn't make a dent in the partisanship of Florida because the vast majority of them never registered, and less than 20% of them even voted.

Cripes. If I knew how to get all those ex-felons out to vote, I wouldn't be here.  I would be getting paid millions by the DNC right now.

[DabbingSanta]

This is the only reason why I'm not confident in saying Florida is tilt R. I believe this ballot measure could have a potentially lasting impact on the future of this state.

[Fuzzy Bear]

I'm very skeptical it'll make much of an impact.

Charlie Crist re-enfranchised 150,000 ex-felons during his time as Governor of Florida, and it didn't make a dent in the partisanship of Florida because the vast majority of them never registered, and less than 20% of them even voted.

Florida voted for Obama twice after that happened.

[Xeuma]

To echo what was already been said, I can't imagine that ex-felons are a demographic that will vote reliably, if ever.

[Technocracy Timmy]

Younger Cubans will make Florida blue.
Puerto Rican refugees will make Florida blue.
Climate change will make Florida blue.
Felon re-enfranchisement will make Florida blue.

The fact of the matter is that Florida is a state that leans to the right of the nation and by all accounts will continue to lean to the right of the nation.

[completely dead account]

Younger Cubans will make Florida blue.
Puerto Rican refugees will make Florida blue.
Climate change will make Florida blue.
Felon re-enfranchisement will make Florida blue.

The fact of the matter is that Florida is a state that leans to the right of the nation and by all accounts will continue to lean to the right of the nation.

Climate change can't make FL more Republican if most Republicans don't believe in climate change or global warming to begin with.

[Technocracy Timmy]

Younger Cubans will make Florida blue.
Puerto Rican refugees will make Florida blue.
Climate change will make Florida blue.
Felon re-enfranchisement will make Florida blue.

The fact of the matter is that Florida is a state that leans to the right of the nation and by all accounts will continue to lean to the right of the nation.

Climate change can't make FL more Republican if most Republicans don't believe in climate change or global warming to begin with.

You can even purchase 30 year flood insurance in coastal parts of Florida that scientists know for a fact will be underwater before then.

Humans are reactive and not proactive.

[ON Progressive]

I'm very skeptical it'll make much of an impact.

Charlie Crist re-enfranchised 150,000 ex-felons during his time as Governor of Florida, and it didn't make a dent in the partisanship of Florida because the vast majority of them never registered, and less than 20% of them even voted.

Florida voted for Obama twice after that happened.

That is very true, but only by small margins, and the state remained 3-4 points to the right of the nation in those particular races. If we were seeing real dents in FL's partisanship from those voters, we would have seen it in other close races in the state.

Also, just keep in mind that more white people regained their right to vote from Amendment 4 than black people. There's plenty of R voters coming out of the 15% of ex-felons who will register.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Yeah, most of them are not going to vote. It has no implications and I’m sure whatever new people do enter the process will be met with an equal or greater number of old white bigots moving there.

[Technocracy Timmy]

It's an important development, but one that needs context. Florida remains a rapidly growing state with bizarre demographics, and that probably deserves more weight in terms of 2020 projections.

Florida's 65+ population grew by over 20% between 2010 and 2017, which amounts to double the rate of increase for non-elderly adults.

Compare to Texas, where Democratic prospects seem to be improving more rapidly. There the population growth rate for elderly adults was about the same as the rate for other adults.

I suspect that Florida will soon (possibly by 2028ish) start voting to the right of Texas.

-The median age of a Floridian is 41.8 years. For a Texan it’s 34.4 years. Florida has a never ending stream of baby boomers entering it every year which hasn’t stopped. Texas as you noted has much more anemic growth.
 
-White Texans voted about 69-26% for Trump. White Floridians were only 64-32% for Trump. There’s still room for the GOP to gain ground with panhandle whites while Texan whites appear to be maxed out in the rural areas as the suburbs continue to get bluer.

-Floridian Hispanics are heavily Cuban - a group that while shifting, still has a strong floor for the GOP. Hispanics in Texas by comparison don’t have the same degree of cultural attachment to the national Republican Party.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

If nothing else changes from 2016 and 20% of them vote at 70-30 Dem, the Democrat wins. I have no idea how likely that is, but that is what needs to happen with this for the Democrat to win.

[Adam Griffin]

Past evidence suggests twenty percent of them will vote, and somewhere around two-thirds of those will vote D. It'll be net gain of 75-100k votes for Democrats: that, combined with the demographic trends people foolishly salivate over in FL every cycle, might be enough to put the state into contention once again. However, I don't think Democrats should spend any money in FL in 2020.

[BlueSwan]

If nothing else changes from 2016 and 20% of them vote at 70-30 Dem, the Democrat wins. I have no idea how likely that is, but that is what needs to happen with this for the Democrat to win.

I don't believe that ex-felons will continue to split 2/3 for dems. Ex-felons tend to be uneducated and will generally hold rather authoritarian views. The Trump-culture will appeal much more to them than the typical Bush/Romney-type republican.

[Annatar]

https://www.vox.com/the-big-idea/2018/11/2/18049510/felon-voting-rights-amendment-4-florida

This study from Vox looked at the 150,000 felons that were given the right to vote in Florida by Crist. It found 87% of black ex-felons registered as Democrats whereas 40% of non-black felons registered as Republicans, 34% as democrats. Of the 1.49 million ex-felons eligible to vote, 420k are black, 1.07 million are not. The study concluded the net effect of the amendment would be a net gain of 48,000 for the democrats. As such, it would appear unless Florida were decided by less then 0.5% in 2020, this amendment would have no effect.

[KingSweden]

I'm very skeptical it'll make much of an impact.

Charlie Crist re-enfranchised 150,000 ex-felons during his time as Governor of Florida, and it didn't make a dent in the partisanship of Florida because the vast majority of them never registered, and less than 20% of them even voted.

^^^

[Progressive Pessimist]

Younger Cubans will make Florida blue.
Puerto Rican refugees will make Florida blue.
Climate change will make Florida blue.
Felon re-enfranchisement will make Florida blue.

The fact of the matter is that Florida is a state that leans to the right of the nation and by all accounts will continue to lean to the right of the nation.

[Ljube]

Younger Cubans will make Florida blue.
Puerto Rican refugees will make Florida blue.
Climate change will make Florida blue.
Felon re-enfranchisement will make Florida blue.

The fact of the matter is that Florida is a state that leans to the right of the nation and by all accounts will continue to lean to the right of the nation.

Climate change can't make FL more Republican if most Republicans don't believe in climate change or global warming to begin with.

You can even purchase 30 year flood insurance in coastal parts of Florida that scientists know for a fact will be underwater before then.

Humans are reactive and not proactive.

Long term projections are unreliable.
Nobody knows for a fact what will happen in 30 years.

[Skill and Chance]

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This.  Climate change won't be deciding any federal elections until 2100ish, and only if it's on the bad end of model ranges.