Can the GOP win back the Suburbs without sacrificing WWC voters?

[TPIG]

It's no secret that the Republican Party is hemorrhaging suburban voters at an alarming rate in areas all around the country. From Cobb and Gwinnett counties in my state, to Tarrant County in Texas, to Orange County in California, there seems to be a uniform shift away from Republicans in these areas. My question is, is it possible for Republicans to win back these wealthier, more educated suburban voters while at the same time maintaining their gains with voters in the white working class?

If it's not possible, and Republicans can only win one group, which should they prioritize?

[AudmanOut]

Honestly I don’t think it’s possible to keep both. Anyways the suburbs are MUCH more important for the long term the working class whites are.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Reagan did it but even then the GOP lost ground among Midwestern WWC voters , it was just that Reagan won such big victories those trends were masked by the landslides .

I mean Dukiakis In 88 did very well among those voters , than after 4 years of HW the GOP lost those upper Midwestern states for a generation .

[Hindsight was 2020]

They could in theory by dumping all the cultural reactionary stuff for economic focus but Trump has purged the party of so many critics that the party seems to be stuck as a 4chan/alt-right/white identity politics party

[Mr. Smith]

2008 pretty much erased that with The Recession unmasking what deregulation really did.

Before then, voodoo economics were an excellent unifying means to keep both sides solved.

[Landslide Lyndon]

WWC and college educated suburbanites live in two different worlds. Republicans are in the same situation as Democrats were with the New Deal coalition when they were trying to appeal both to Southern racists and blacks. They managed to do it for many years but eventually the coalition collapsed. That's what's happening now with Republicans. 

[IceSpear]

It's no secret that the Republican Party is hemorrhaging suburban voters at an alarming rate in areas all around the country.

Really? I'm pretty sure that's news to our favorite RINO...

[IceSpear]

Anyway, if the GOP wants to claw back ground in these areas, they need one of two things, but preferably both:

1) Trump not being president
2) A Democrat being president

As long as Trump is in office, it's only going to keep getting worse.

[Dr. Arch]

It's no secret that the Republican Party is hemorrhaging suburban voters at an alarming rate in areas all around the country.

Really? I'm pretty sure that's news to our favorite RINO...

Even in WOW, Walker massively underperformed. If the trend continues, Trump may not get above the ~56% mark in those areas, and that's VERY bad news if he doesn't make up for it in very significant ways elsewhere in the state, and there's only so much he can expect from Western WI.

[JA]

The trends indicate the opposite. Suburbs are going to be lost to the GOP soon as Democrats continue making inroads among White College educated voters. The Republican Party will continue relying on a base that’s increasingly non-college educated Whites. Many, if not most, remaining wealthy suburban districts have witnessed the demise of their Republicans in 2016 and 2018; from New Jersey to Texas to California, the suburban GOP reps in Congress have been wiped out. Democrats will increasingly rely upon these voters and seek to build upon these gains by appealing to their interests, which will force Republicans to rely upon an increasingly lower educated, lower income, rural and exurban base.

In order to remain competitive at the Presidential and, especially, the Congressional level, Republicans will have to come to terms with the fact that tax cuts for high income earners, cuts to social services, and other traditional GOP-Ryan/Romney policies will be anathema to their core constituents. But, also, they’ll have to move beyond Trump’s white nationalist rhetoric since there simply aren’t enough lower educated Whites for the GOP to remain competitive appealing only to them. So, unless the Democrat Party becomes the party of Sanders and Ocasio-Cortez, then the GOP must realize that making inroads into minority working class areas is their only realistic prospects of being viable long-term.

tldr: unless Democrats become the party of Ocasio-Cortez, the GOP’s only realistic long-term hope is to focus on working class minorities. The White College educated suburbanites are leaving the party and Democrats now control the majority of such Congressional districts. Move on and adapt your platform and rhetoric accordingly.

[JA]

Anyway, if the GOP wants to claw back ground in these areas, they need one of two things, but preferably both:

1) Trump not being president
2) A Democrat being president

As long as Trump is in office, it's only going to keep getting worse.

That assumes the Democratic President would pursue policies anathema to those voters. Based on the track record of Democratic Presidents and nominees since 1984, at least, there’s no reason to believe that’ll be the case. The trend has been for these voters to slowly move into the Democratic Party; a trend that has only sped up under Trump.

[I Can Now Die Happy]

Short Answer: Yes

slightly longer answer: yes, because the D's can find new ways of screwing up

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Not, with Pence. McConnell lobbied Trump to put Pence on the ticket. But, female voters arent enthusiastic about him. He is just as bland as Dick Cheney was. McSally, as well as Pence, McConnell has lobbied for, help Democrats

[RINO Tom]

It's no secret that the Republican Party is hemorrhaging suburban voters at an alarming rate in areas all around the country.

Really? I'm pretty sure that's news to our favorite RINO...

You bored, bro?  Blatantly false, and you know it.  Get a life.

[SATW]

It's no secret that the Republican Party is hemorrhaging suburban voters at an alarming rate in areas all around the country. From Cobb and Gwinnett counties in my state, to Tarrant County in Texas, to Orange County in California, there seems to be a uniform shift away from Republicans in these areas. My question is, is it possible for Republicans to win back these wealthier, more educated suburban voters while at the same time maintaining their gains with voters in the white working class?

If it's not possible, and Republicans can only win one group, which should they prioritize?

I think it is possible. Suburban voters have been turned off by the social and immigration issue rhetoric, not necessarily the economic revisionism of Trump (that being said, there are clearly aspects of his economic views that suburbanites don't like).


John Kerry won a larger share of these WWC voters than Fmr Pres. Obama or Hillary and he is much more elite than the latter two, for example.

[Crumpets]

Let's dispel with this belief that white men without a college education=the white working class.

[pbrower2a]

It's no secret that the Republican Party is hemorrhaging suburban voters at an alarming rate in areas all around the country. From Cobb and Gwinnett counties in my state, to Tarrant County in Texas, to Orange County in California, there seems to be a uniform shift away from Republicans in these areas. My question is, is it possible for Republicans to win back these wealthier, more educated suburban voters while at the same time maintaining their gains with voters in the white working class?

If it's not possible, and Republicans can only win one group, which should they prioritize?

Donald Trump exploited the longstanding rift between white working-class and educated suburbanite voters  to win big among the WWC... and the educated suburban voters are catching on. The two demographics have little in common in values. The WWC has seen educated people as an exploitative and abusive elite for decades.

[RINO Tom]

Let's dispel with this belief that white men without a college education=the white working class.

Good luck with that, haha.

[Xing]

There's not winning back the suburbs as long as Trump is president and the Republican Party is the spitting image of him, that's for sure.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Depends what your definition of Suburban and WWC is exactly. Anyway the terms are hardly mutually exclusive as many WWC voters live in suburbs. Suburbs are hardly homogeneous places but instead very from: very diverse to heavily white, wealthy to low income, heavily religious to relatively non religious and by industry. This obviously fairly directly impacts how these places vote.

Republicans still hold onto a fair amount of suburban support with exit polls showing Republicans tied at 49% with Democrats in Suburban areas. Now it is true that Republicans are losing some support among suburbs long term for a variety of reasons:

1.Some suburban counties are getting more diverse. As Democrats maintain their strong support with visible minorities they naturally are gaining in these counties.
Gwinnett: 40.3% white
Cobb: 53.8% white
Orange 42% white
Tarrant:49% white

Another factor often not talked about is voting turnout rates among visible minorities going up. This means the demographics among those that vote gradually starts to match the census demographics of these counties. The fact that many of these places such as GA-6/GA-7 or Texas are considered competitive for the first time in a while likely causes an increase in turnout both in general and among visible minorities who may have historically turned out at a lower rate.

2. Cost of living has gone up in many urban metropolitan areas. Making a $100,000 or more and living in a large urban and suburban area doesn't mean your that wealthy these days once you factor in the ever increasing cost of housing, food, transport, utilities etc. This means many of these voters probably don't feel particularity affluent and thus feel at least somewhat attracted to things like: mass public transit projects, subsidized or free college, more construction of affordable housing/empty homes tax/rent control/ban on short term rental, medicare for all among other liberal policies. It should also be mentioned that a college education isn't the ticket to a high income job and offers no guarantee that one will be financially successful. Republicans still won the highest income bracket in the House exit poll this year and once you adjust for cost of living, total equity and debt you would find the small pool of truly affluent voters still votes Republican.

3. Moral and Cultural issues along with Trump's rhetoric has caused many otherwise Republican voters to vote Dem is probably the reason you here the most of why Republicans are losing support in suburbs is probably the least responsible for the Republican parties slide among suburban voters. If anything this is probably the most self serving reason for almost everyone; for liberals it allows them to gloat how out of touch Republicans are on social policy and allows them to tout how popular their agenda really is; meanwhile for Trump skeptic Republicans it offers a convenient scapegoat to blame the parties long term demographic problems on. After all it's much easier to change your rhetoric on a few issues and support a few culturally liberal positions than try and make inroads among demographics that haven't traditionally voted for your party in large numbers consistently for years if ever or retool and or repackage your economic polices to try and appeal to a voter base that is feeling bogged down financially. In reality I suspect the amount of voters that love the Republican party in every aspect except for cultural issues and vote Dem is fairly small and not overly significant. Yes Republicans would net a few voters from #3 but probably lose many more that otherwise only vote Republican because of cultural issues.

All in all Republicans probably regain a small bit of their lost support because of #3 post Trump but probably will find it much harder to entirely reverse the trend among suburbanites unless  they address the first two bullet reasons. That being said their are still many white middle class suburbanites that live in lower cost suburbs and are fine with cultural conservatism that will still continue to vote Republican along with a good chunk of truly affluent voters.


https://www.cnn.com/election/2018/exit-polls
https://statisticalatlas.com/United-States/Overview

[TPIG]

This is a stupid question and you should feel stupid for posting it.

Well I wouldn't necessarily call it stupid. After all, before Trump, the GOP was winning  with suburbanites as well as the WWC (though by a lower margin). I'd say wishful thinking is more the proper term.

[Progressive Pessimist]

As long as they feel like they don't need them, which they seem to because of their success in the Senate races this year, they won't bother appealing beyond their base or acknowledging that this strategy is flawed. It may very well still work out for them too. I worry that the current suburban trend won't last when a Democratic President takes power again. If that's the case, all the Republicans need is a little patience and the suburbs will swing back. So why blame them for ignoring them?

[IceSpear]

It's no secret that the Republican Party is hemorrhaging suburban voters at an alarming rate in areas all around the country.

Really? I'm pretty sure that's news to our favorite RINO...

You bored, bro?  Blatantly false, and you know it.  Get a life.

Who said I was talking about you? Guilty conscience?

[Nyvin]

This guy explains it quite well

https://twitter.com/Noahpinion/status/1064622245069254657

[Technocracy Timmy]

It's no secret that the Republican Party is hemorrhaging suburban voters at an alarming rate in areas all around the country.

Really? I'm pretty sure that's news to our favorite RINO...

You bored, bro?  Blatantly false, and you know it.  Get a life.