Control of Congressional Redistricting as of 2018 elections

[lfromnj]

Three black seats is the most you can possibly draw,  one in Baltimore and two in the Prince Georges area.   4 would require plurality seats which the VRA most likely wouldn't permit.

VRA courts  would absolutely permit a black plurality seat of like 45% in Maryland.
that would almost certainly elect a black in somewhere like Maryland unlike MS.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Three black seats is the most you can possibly draw,  one in Baltimore and two in the Prince Georges area.   4 would require plurality seats which the VRA most likely wouldn't permit.

VRA courts  would absolutely permit a black plurality seat of like 45% in Maryland.
that would almost certainly elect a black in somewhere like Maryland unlike MS.

No, it's not the general to worry about, it's the primary.
Yes, a 40% black district would elect a democrat. But would a black democrat get through the primary? Probably not.

Also, we're not talking 45% black seats. With tortured borders you could *maybe* get 4 seats more than 40% African-American. Maybe.

[Nyvin]

Maryland's AG has already appealed to SCOTUS: https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/public-safety/maryland-will-appeal-partisan-gerrymandering-decision-to-supreme-court/2018/11/15/e934edfa-e6af-11e8-bbdb-72fdbf9d4fed_story.html

If their map is overturned, they will make sure every map in the country where the process was controlled by one party is overturned. 

Maybe I should send these to Gov. Hogan

Hogan is basically irrelevant in this process.  Dems have supermajorities to override his veto.

Actually he is very relavent
All he has to do is push a black friendly map and black legilsators will stab white democrats so there are more black majority districts.

It's already pretty black friendly.  Under the current map, a black would win MD-05 if open in addition to the two seats they already have.

Hogan could push for 4 black friendly seats and 1 white dem seat 1 Lean R and 2 Safe R and the black legislators would stab the whites in the back to get that extra seat.

That would be impossible and also breaks the VRA. The best MD Black Dems can hope for is the 2 VRA required black majority seats (1 each in Baltimore and DC suburbs) and 1 majority minority seat in the DC suburbs.

That's basically what already exists.  MD-05 will be won by a black when Hoyer retires.

MD-2 and MD-5 are both borderline "black friendly" district already.   The problem is to make them plurality/majority black would pretty much require removing black populations from MD-4 and MD-7, which would likely drop them below majority.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Yes, a 40% black district would elect a democrat. But would a black democrat get through the primary? Probably not.

That is highly likely. If you didn't notice, Black Democrats just got elected in quite a few seats with much, much smaller African American populations such as NY-19, GA-06, IL-14, TX-32, and CO-02.

So yes, a Black Democrat would have a great chance at winning a Democratic primary. That doesn't mean a Black Democrat would be guaranteed to win, but that is never the case. Ask Bill Jefferson of Louisiana. If they didn't win, it would almost certainly be because there was something wrong with their candidacy, not solely because they are black.

[lfromnj]

Yes, a 40% black district would elect a democrat. But would a black democrat get through the primary? Probably not.

That is highly likely. If you didn't notice, Black Democrats just got elected in quite a few seats with much, much smaller African American populations such as NY-19, GA-06, IL-14, TX-32, and CO-02.

So yes, a Black Democrat would have a great chance at winning a Democratic primary. That doesn't mean a Black Democrat would be guaranteed to win, but that is never the case. Ask Bill Jefferson of Louisiana. If they didn't win, it would almost certainly be because there was something wrong with their candidacy, not solely because they are black.

yeah maryland is basically MS for the blacks but instead of MS whites its more like NJ or VA whites,.
a 40% black district would mean something like 65% dem . This would mean the black people could vote in unison for a black candidate even if white dems opposed. And then in the GE the black dem would win.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Yes, a 40% black district would elect a democrat. But would a black democrat get through the primary? Probably not.

That is highly likely. If you didn't notice, Black Democrats just got elected in quite a few seats with much, much smaller African American populations such as NY-19, GA-06, IL-14, TX-32, and CO-02.

So yes, a Black Democrat would have a great chance at winning a Democratic primary. That doesn't mean a Black Democrat would be guaranteed to win, but that is never the case. Ask Bill Jefferson of Louisiana. If they didn't win, it would almost certainly be because there was something wrong with their candidacy, not solely because they are black.

The question is whether the courts would see the same way, that a 40-45% black district can be thought of as likely to elect a black congressman.

[Nyvin]

Blacks would actually be over represented with 4 seats anyway.  Maryland is only 32% Black and 4 seats would be 50% of the delegation.

[lfromnj]

Blacks would actually be over represented with 4 seats anyway.  Maryland is only 32% Black and 4 seats would be 50% of the delegation.

the point isn't to over represent blacks for the sake of the VRA but to get black dems to back stab white dems.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Blacks would actually be over represented with 4 seats anyway.  Maryland is only 32% Black and 4 seats would be 50% of the delegation.

the point isn't to over represent blacks for the sake of the VRA but to get black dems to back stab white dems.

They wouldn't do that though. The MD dems are more competent and unified with redistricting.
And don't forget legislative redistricting. That is another concern for everyone involved.
Basically, Hogan isn't splitting off enough black dems in a month of sundays.

[cinyc]

-MO similarly now requires a special nonpartisan appointee to draw said maps. probably means the 6-2 divide continues.

That is only for legislative districts I believe.

Also, regarding New York, I think there is a caveat to add in how they can ignore the commission:

https://ballotpedia.org/New_York_Proposal_1_(2014),_Full_Text_of_Constitutional_Changes

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It seems that if they want to pass a map with a unified Democratic legislative majority, they would need a 2/3 majority. They would have to have an Assembly or Senate leader from a different party to do it by a simple majority. Of course, this can probably be gamed. Maybe the Democrat can temporarily change their party affiliation ahead of time, or something of the sort.

I don't even get why Democrats agreed to this amendment. It's too convoluted, weak and clearly meant to benefit Republicans to a degree.


-

Regarding Florida - I think Democrats really need to prioritize getting a redistricting commission on the ballot for 2020 if they want to have a shot at fair maps. They can't rely on the FLSC anymore.

The reason New York's rules are set up that way is to make sure the commission - which is supposed to draw "fair" maps - actually draws them, instead of the legislature.

It's kind of odd that you are complaining about New York Democrats agreeing to this in the same post  that you scold Florida for not having a commission. It's almost as if the only "fair" maps are ones that benefit Democrats.

[Virginiá]

The reason New York's rules are set up that way is to make sure the commission - which is supposed to draw "fair" maps - actually draws them, instead of the legislature.

It's kind of odd that you are complaining about New York Democrats agreeing to this in the same post  that you scold Florida for not having a commission. It's almost as if the only "fair" maps are ones that benefit Democrats.

I've been rather consistent about my desire for fair redistricting as a personal preference on here. If there was a choice, I would take that without a doubt. The only caveat I've had is that I would loathe a situation where only Dem-leaning states have it and Rep-leaning states rig the hell out of their maps.

Anyway, I don't know why you responded like that. My point was that there are other ways they could have done this. They don't need convoluted backup rules like this. Just hand it off to a commission entirely, and let courts step in if something fishy went on. Look to other states if they need to. This isn't a new concept.

So my point wasn't that they do nothing, it's that they do something simpler and more effective.

[cinyc]

The reason New York's rules are set up that way is to make sure the commission - which is supposed to draw "fair" maps - actually draws them, instead of the legislature.

It's kind of odd that you are complaining about New York Democrats agreeing to this in the same post  that you scold Florida for not having a commission. It's almost as if the only "fair" maps are ones that benefit Democrats.

I've been rather consistent about my desire for fair redistricting as a personal preference on here. If there was a choice, I would take that without a doubt. The only caveat I've had is that I would loathe a situation where only Dem-leaning states have it and Rep-leaning states rig the hell out of their maps.

Anyway, I don't know why you responded like that. My point was that there are other ways they could have done this. They don't need convoluted backup rules like this. Just hand it off to a commission entirely, and let courts step in if something fishy went on. Look to other states if they need to. This isn't a new concept.

So my point wasn't that they do nothing, it's that they do something simpler and more effective.

Well, it's New York. The circuit breaker is mos likely part of the incumbent protection racket that we've been running for decades. If the commission creates a map that pits incumbent against incumbent, the legislature will step in to "correct" that.

[Oryxslayer]

I have long been under the impression that the 'backup rules' will be called into play in 2020 regarding the congressional map, because the GOP would want to protect Stefanik's path to leadership, and her seat could get bluer once NY-22 gets cut. So they will sign on to some dem 'protections' in order to protect her, and a few others. But hey, maybe the initial map will appease them, or perhaps Stefanik's leadership path is now shut with the Trump turn of the GOP.

[cinyc]

I have long been under the impression that the 'backup rules' will be called into play in 2020 regarding the congressional map, because the GOP would want to protect Stefanik's path to leadership, and her seat could get bluer once NY-22 gets cut. So they will sign on to some dem 'protections' in order to protect her, and a few others. But hey, maybe the initial map will appease them, or perhaps Stefanik's leadership path is now shut with the Trump turn of the GOP.

The legislature couldn't agree on the last U.S. House map, so it was drawn by the courts. Of course, that was with a divided legislature, which New York likely won't have after 2020 - I'd never say never in New York because Senate Democrats were unable to effectively govern the last time they had nominal control of the legislature, and you can't rule out a new IDC forming, because it's New York.

While it's possible to make NY-22 bluer, there's only so far you could go without taking more urban parts of the Albany or Syracuse areas into the district. The commission probably wouldn't do that, as the North Country is its own community of interest. But we'll see.

[Virginiá]

The legislature couldn't agree on the last U.S. House map, so it was drawn by the courts. Of course, that was with a divided legislature, which New York likely won't have after 2020 - I'd never say never in New York because Senate Democrats were unable to effectively govern the last time they had nominal control of the legislature, and you can't rule out a new IDC forming, because it's New York.

While it's possible to make NY-22 bluer, there's only so far you could go without taking more urban parts of the Albany or Syracuse areas into the district. The commission probably wouldn't do that, as the North Country is its own community of interest. But we'll see.

It's just hard to see that anytime soon given that the IDC was almost entirely obliterated in the primary. That should be enough to dissuade anyone from trying anything for some time, regardless of how they feel about the current situation or how much they want more money and power. I think they would be right to be worried about that too, at least so long as Trump is in office. Right now there is no shortage of energy on the left to keep their officials in line. This will be reinforced if they go after the 2 remaining former IDC Senators next time around.

Also the majority is a lot bigger than it was back then, so that makes a difference. Convincing 8-9 Democratic Senators to break away again after the last IDC group got blown out sounds downright impossible. And it could get harder after 2020.

[Mr.Phips]

I have long been under the impression that the 'backup rules' will be called into play in 2020 regarding the congressional map, because the GOP would want to protect Stefanik's path to leadership, and her seat could get bluer once NY-22 gets cut. So they will sign on to some dem 'protections' in order to protect her, and a few others. But hey, maybe the initial map will appease them, or perhaps Stefanik's leadership path is now shut with the Trump turn of the GOP.

The legislature couldn't agree on the last U.S. House map, so it was drawn by the courts. Of course, that was with a divided legislature, which New York likely won't have after 2020 - I'd never say never in New York because Senate Democrats were unable to effectively govern the last time they had nominal control of the legislature, and you can't rule out a new IDC forming, because it's New York.

While it's possible to make NY-22 bluer, there's only so far you could go without taking more urban parts of the Albany or Syracuse areas into the district. The commission probably wouldn't do that, as the North Country is its own community of interest. But we'll see.

All they would need to do to make NY-22 bluer is to create a Utica to Syracuse district.  NY-24 would be the district that gets eliminated.

[lfromnj]

I have long been under the impression that the 'backup rules' will be called into play in 2020 regarding the congressional map, because the GOP would want to protect Stefanik's path to leadership, and her seat could get bluer once NY-22 gets cut. So they will sign on to some dem 'protections' in order to protect her, and a few others. But hey, maybe the initial map will appease them, or perhaps Stefanik's leadership path is now shut with the Trump turn of the GOP.

The legislature couldn't agree on the last U.S. House map, so it was drawn by the courts. Of course, that was with a divided legislature, which New York likely won't have after 2020 - I'd never say never in New York because Senate Democrats were unable to effectively govern the last time they had nominal control of the legislature, and you can't rule out a new IDC forming, because it's New York.

While it's possible to make NY-22 bluer, there's only so far you could go without taking more urban parts of the Albany or Syracuse areas into the district. The commission probably wouldn't do that, as the North Country is its own community of interest. But we'll see.

All they would need to do to make NY-22 bluer is to create a Utica to Syracuse district.  NY-24 would be the district that gets eliminated.

Who wins Katko or brindisi. The two moderate heroes. Atlas would nut

[Mr.Phips]

I have long been under the impression that the 'backup rules' will be called into play in 2020 regarding the congressional map, because the GOP would want to protect Stefanik's path to leadership, and her seat could get bluer once NY-22 gets cut. So they will sign on to some dem 'protections' in order to protect her, and a few others. But hey, maybe the initial map will appease them, or perhaps Stefanik's leadership path is now shut with the Trump turn of the GOP.

The legislature couldn't agree on the last U.S. House map, so it was drawn by the courts. Of course, that was with a divided legislature, which New York likely won't have after 2020 - I'd never say never in New York because Senate Democrats were unable to effectively govern the last time they had nominal control of the legislature, and you can't rule out a new IDC forming, because it's New York.

While it's possible to make NY-22 bluer, there's only so far you could go without taking more urban parts of the Albany or Syracuse areas into the district. The commission probably wouldn't do that, as the North Country is its own community of interest. But we'll see.

All they would need to do to make NY-22 bluer is to create a Utica to Syracuse district.  NY-24 would be the district that gets eliminated.

Who wins Katko or brindisi. The two moderate heroes. Atlas would nut

Brindisi wins (if he survives 2020) unless 2022 is a Republican wave (even then Brindisi might win) Brindisi would carry Utica and would probably get a decent margin in Onondoga county (Katko actually lost Onondoga to a weak opponent this year) as Brindisi is stronger than any opponent that Katko has ever faced.  Even Hillary would have won 49%-45% in this district.  This would pretty much be a tailor made district for Brindisi.

[lfromnj]

I have long been under the impression that the 'backup rules' will be called into play in 2020 regarding the congressional map, because the GOP would want to protect Stefanik's path to leadership, and her seat could get bluer once NY-22 gets cut. So they will sign on to some dem 'protections' in order to protect her, and a few others. But hey, maybe the initial map will appease them, or perhaps Stefanik's leadership path is now shut with the Trump turn of the GOP.

The legislature couldn't agree on the last U.S. House map, so it was drawn by the courts. Of course, that was with a divided legislature, which New York likely won't have after 2020 - I'd never say never in New York because Senate Democrats were unable to effectively govern the last time they had nominal control of the legislature, and you can't rule out a new IDC forming, because it's New York.

While it's possible to make NY-22 bluer, there's only so far you could go without taking more urban parts of the Albany or Syracuse areas into the district. The commission probably wouldn't do that, as the North Country is its own community of interest. But we'll see.

All they would need to do to make NY-22 bluer is to create a Utica to Syracuse district.  NY-24 would be the district that gets eliminated.

Who wins Katko or brindisi. The two moderate heroes. Atlas would nut

Brindisi wins (if he survives 2020) unless 2022 is a Republican wave (even then Brindisi might win) Brindisi would carry Utica and would probably get a decent margin in Onondoga county (Katko actually lost Onondoga to a weak opponent this year) as Brindisi is stronger than any opponent that Katko has ever faced.  Even Hillary would have won 49%-45% in this district.  This would pretty much be a tailor made district for Brindisi.

I mean Brindisi barely beat Tenney in 2018 while Katko btfo Maffei.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I have long been under the impression that the 'backup rules' will be called into play in 2020 regarding the congressional map, because the GOP would want to protect Stefanik's path to leadership, and her seat could get bluer once NY-22 gets cut. So they will sign on to some dem 'protections' in order to protect her, and a few others. But hey, maybe the initial map will appease them, or perhaps Stefanik's leadership path is now shut with the Trump turn of the GOP.

NY-22 being eliminated probably helps Stefanik - her seat could stand to gain parts of Oneida, which is reliably R turf.

[Mr.Phips]

I have long been under the impression that the 'backup rules' will be called into play in 2020 regarding the congressional map, because the GOP would want to protect Stefanik's path to leadership, and her seat could get bluer once NY-22 gets cut. So they will sign on to some dem 'protections' in order to protect her, and a few others. But hey, maybe the initial map will appease them, or perhaps Stefanik's leadership path is now shut with the Trump turn of the GOP.

The legislature couldn't agree on the last U.S. House map, so it was drawn by the courts. Of course, that was with a divided legislature, which New York likely won't have after 2020 - I'd never say never in New York because Senate Democrats were unable to effectively govern the last time they had nominal control of the legislature, and you can't rule out a new IDC forming, because it's New York.

While it's possible to make NY-22 bluer, there's only so far you could go without taking more urban parts of the Albany or Syracuse areas into the district. The commission probably wouldn't do that, as the North Country is its own community of interest. But we'll see.

All they would need to do to make NY-22 bluer is to create a Utica to Syracuse district.  NY-24 would be the district that gets eliminated.

Who wins Katko or brindisi. The two moderate heroes. Atlas would nut

Brindisi wins (if he survives 2020) unless 2022 is a Republican wave (even then Brindisi might win) Brindisi would carry Utica and would probably get a decent margin in Onondoga county (Katko actually lost Onondoga to a weak opponent this year) as Brindisi is stronger than any opponent that Katko has ever faced.  Even Hillary would have won 49%-45% in this district.  This would pretty much be a tailor made district for Brindisi.

I mean Brindisi barely beat Tenney in 2018 while Katko btfo Maffei.

The current NY-22 has a lot of very Republican territory.  Changing it to just Oneida and Onondoga leaves Brindisi with his strongest territory and Katko with his weakest territory.

[Mr.Phips]

I have long been under the impression that the 'backup rules' will be called into play in 2020 regarding the congressional map, because the GOP would want to protect Stefanik's path to leadership, and her seat could get bluer once NY-22 gets cut. So they will sign on to some dem 'protections' in order to protect her, and a few others. But hey, maybe the initial map will appease them, or perhaps Stefanik's leadership path is now shut with the Trump turn of the GOP.

NY-22 being eliminated probably helps Stefanik - her seat could stand to gain parts of Oneida, which is reliably R turf.

Much of Oneida would go to Brindisi, while Stefanik would pick up Oswego and maybe Cayuga and the rest of Herkimer, which she'd be fine with.

[Gass3268]

Tompkins is sitting there too waiting to help a Democrat (NY-22 or NY-24).

[Oryxslayer]

I have long been under the impression that the 'backup rules' will be called into play in 2020 regarding the congressional map, because the GOP would want to protect Stefanik's path to leadership, and her seat could get bluer once NY-22 gets cut. So they will sign on to some dem 'protections' in order to protect her, and a few others. But hey, maybe the initial map will appease them, or perhaps Stefanik's leadership path is now shut with the Trump turn of the GOP.

NY-22 being eliminated probably helps Stefanik - her seat could stand to gain parts of Oneida, which is reliably R turf.

Much of Oneida would go to Brindisi, while Stefanik would pick up Oswego and maybe Cayuga and the rest of Herkimer, which she'd be fine with.

It's not what she gets, it's WHO she gets. Brindisi's from Utica. And NY21 is less Pub then NY22, even with Oneida attached. It also has some Dem areas like the Canadian border that I could see trending back towards the Dems, whereas NY21s non-Binghampton areas are a harder lift for Dems.

Basically, there are three upstate scenarios right now:
-Stefanik vs Brindisi - very bad for GOP but the natural fair scenario
-Katko vs Reed - Bad if the Trumpists are still around
-Katko vs Brindisi - good for Pubs, since Katko is already living on borrowed time until Dems really find a quality candidate, pour money into the seat, and perhaps pair Ithica with Syracuse. This however requires gerrymandering.

[Mr.Phips]

Tompkins is sitting there too waiting to help a Democrat (NY-22 or NY-24).

That could go to NY-19 maybe to pretty much recreate the old Maurice Hinchey district. Delgado would love it.