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  RRH/JMC Analytics (R): Hyde-Smith +10
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Author Topic: RRH/JMC Analytics (R): Hyde-Smith +10  (Read 1103 times)
BundouYMB
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« on: November 25, 2018, 03:02:48 pm »

Hyde-Smith 54%
Espy 44%
Undecided 1%

Link: https://rrhelections.com/index.php/2018/11/25/rrh-elections-mississippi-senate-runoff-poll-cindy-hyde-smith-r-leads-mike-espy-d-54-44/
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« Reply #1 on: November 25, 2018, 03:05:49 pm »

I think it will be closer to Hyde-Smith +5, but still reassuring, even though this kind of racially polarized voting is very unfortunate.
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BundouYMB
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« Reply #2 on: November 25, 2018, 03:05:57 pm »

Before the hot takes arrive: the fact a Democrat can achieve 44+% in a midterm runoff election in MS with unexceptional black turnout is actually very encouraging to me. If there was some way to juice black turnout to match their share of the population then MS could well be a swing state, which is crazy to think about.
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Senate/SCOTUS/EC Delenda Est 👁
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« Reply #3 on: November 25, 2018, 03:08:09 pm »

Trump won MS by 18 points, so if it is a 10 point margin in the end, that will not be a bad improvement in notoriously inelastic MS.
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Chief Justice windjammer
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« Reply #4 on: November 25, 2018, 03:12:36 pm »

Yeah, +10 margin seems correct.
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Congressman Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #5 on: November 25, 2018, 03:39:19 pm »

The momentum is clearly in Espy's favor, the Jungle Primary vote was 58% for Republicans and 42% for Democrats, +16 R, this poll is at just +10 R, a six point drop. However, it's likely too little too late with the election just two days away.
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« Reply #6 on: November 25, 2018, 03:44:13 pm »

The momentum is clearly in Espy's favor, the Jungle Primary vote was 58% for Republicans and 42% for Democrats, +16 R, this poll is at just +10 R, a six point drop. However, it's likely too little too late with the election just two days away.

Not sure if there’s really any "momentum" here, Espy was always going to do a lot better in the runoff than on Nov. 6.
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The Chad Ralph Northam
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« Reply #7 on: November 25, 2018, 03:58:47 pm »

Trump won MS by 18 points, so if it is a 10 point margin in the end, that will not be a bad improvement in notoriously inelastic MS.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #8 on: November 25, 2018, 05:06:45 pm »

The momentum is clearly in Espy's favor, the Jungle Primary vote was 58% for Republicans and 42% for Democrats, +16 R, this poll is at just +10 R, a six point drop. However, it's likely too little too late with the election just two days away.

Not sure if there’s really any "momentum" here, Espy was always going to do a lot better in the runoff than on Nov. 6.

Yep, if anything this looks like turnout differentials.

Img


Still, -10 is a pretty damn good result for a Democrat in Mississippi, especially when the Democrat is black and going against an incumbent Senator. -10 was what popular white former governor Unbeatable Titan Ronnie Musgrove got with sky high black turnout thanks to Obama in 2008. And Wicker just won by 19 points a few weeks ago.

But yeah, obviously there is zero chance Espy wins, as was true from the very beginning and never changed. The only curiosity will be to see if it is a single digit loss or a double digit loss.
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« Reply #9 on: November 25, 2018, 05:59:34 pm »

Yeah, it would be pretty impressive for Espy to come within single digits, but he's not going to win.
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #10 on: November 25, 2018, 06:01:20 pm »

Interesting to see McDaniel supporters at 100% for Hyde-Smith. Obviously they're the most conservative, but I thought there might be a little bit of bitterness against her.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #11 on: November 25, 2018, 06:13:20 pm »

Interesting to see McDaniel supporters at 100% for Hyde-Smith. Obviously they're the most conservative, but I thought there might be a little bit of bitterness against her.

Well, if this poll is accurate, a small chunk of them are staying home. He got 16% on election day but is at 12% now.
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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #12 on: November 25, 2018, 06:45:02 pm »

Well, I'm not really that surprised. It will probably be between 55-45 and 60-40 in favor of Hyde-Smith in the end.
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NewYorkExpress
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« Reply #13 on: November 25, 2018, 06:47:02 pm »

I think Hyde-Smith is going to win by more than ten.

There are enough people who didn't vote on Election Day, who will back Hyde-Smith because they find the concept of a Black Man representing their state a mortal sin.

Hyde-Smith by at least twenty.
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Comrade Funk
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« Reply #14 on: November 25, 2018, 06:48:08 pm »

Many White Mississippians prefer being 50th in categories ranging from life expectancy to Per Capita GDP if it means Black Mississippians are there with them.
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Jeppe
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« Reply #15 on: November 25, 2018, 07:17:41 pm »

Interesting to see McDaniel supporters at 100% for Hyde-Smith. Obviously they're the most conservative, but I thought there might be a little bit of bitterness against her.

McDaniel had the most racist supporters, so I'm not at all surprised that they're not defecting to a black Democrat.
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« Reply #16 on: November 25, 2018, 07:22:53 pm »

Espy isn't a national figure like Gillum or Abrams, and MS is pro Trump
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BundouYMB
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« Reply #17 on: November 25, 2018, 09:21:39 pm »

The momentum is clearly in Espy's favor, the Jungle Primary vote was 58% for Republicans and 42% for Democrats, +16 R, this poll is at just +10 R, a six point drop. However, it's likely too little too late with the election just two days away.

Not sure if there’s really any "momentum" here, Espy was always going to do a lot better in the runoff than on Nov. 6.

Yep, if anything this looks like turnout differentials.

Img


Still, -10 is a pretty damn good result for a Democrat in Mississippi, especially when the Democrat is black and going against an incumbent Senator. -10 was what popular white former governor Unbeatable Titan Ronnie Musgrove got with sky high black turnout thanks to Obama in 2008. And Wicker just won by 19 points a few weeks ago.

But yeah, obviously there is zero chance Espy wins, as was true from the very beginning and never changed. The only curiosity will be to see if it is a single digit loss or a double digit loss.

That "turnout differential" is really just a less-than-usual turnout advantage for Republicans, rather than a turnout advantage for Democrats. This poll still only has a 32% black electorate. Blacks are 38% of Mississippi's population. There's a lot more potential upside there for Democrats in the future.

My takeaway, if Hyde-Smith really does win by 10~, will be that while a Democrat winning a Senate seat in MS is probably impossible under normal circumstances in 2018 it could happen not too far in the future. And I think the gubernatorial race next year will be very competitive.
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History505
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« Reply #18 on: November 25, 2018, 10:03:13 pm »

This margin looks to be what would be expected given it's Mississippi.
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UncleSam
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« Reply #19 on: November 25, 2018, 10:05:44 pm »

Not strictly accurate to list this as (R) in that it’s not an internal, so I wouldn’t expect this to be biased - it was going to be released regardless of the result.

I think about 55-45 is the most likely outcome so given this poll verified my personal assumptions I will obviously treat it as gospel Tongue
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Monarch
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« Reply #20 on: November 26, 2018, 08:48:36 am »

Honestly this is about what I expected going into this race. She's a significant favorite and I'll be shocked if Espy gets it under 10 points.

Hyde-Smith by 9 to 15 imo.
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