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Author Topic: RRH/JMC Analytics (R): Hyde-Smith +10  (Read 751 times)
Bevinevitable
IceSpear
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E: -4.65, S: -5.70

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« on: November 25, 2018, 05:06:45 pm »

The momentum is clearly in Espy's favor, the Jungle Primary vote was 58% for Republicans and 42% for Democrats, +16 R, this poll is at just +10 R, a six point drop. However, it's likely too little too late with the election just two days away.

Not sure if there’s really any "momentum" here, Espy was always going to do a lot better in the runoff than on Nov. 6.

Yep, if anything this looks like turnout differentials.



Still, -10 is a pretty damn good result for a Democrat in Mississippi, especially when the Democrat is black and going against an incumbent Senator. -10 was what popular white former governor Unbeatable Titan Ronnie Musgrove got with sky high black turnout thanks to Obama in 2008. And Wicker just won by 19 points a few weeks ago.

But yeah, obviously there is zero chance Espy wins, as was true from the very beginning and never changed. The only curiosity will be to see if it is a single digit loss or a double digit loss.
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Bevinevitable
IceSpear
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Political Matrix
E: -4.65, S: -5.70

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« Reply #1 on: November 25, 2018, 06:13:20 pm »

Interesting to see McDaniel supporters at 100% for Hyde-Smith. Obviously they're the most conservative, but I thought there might be a little bit of bitterness against her.

Well, if this poll is accurate, a small chunk of them are staying home. He got 16% on election day but is at 12% now.
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